Was It Possible to Stabilise the Price of Wool? Organised Wool Marketing 1916 to 1970

Wool is the only Australian commodity for which there has been an attempt to organise price stability through a buffer stock scheme (1970–91). Growers pressed for the introduction of a scheme since the early 1920s. We test the veracity of claims that the sale of the stockpiles optimised growers' returns. We also simulate the likely outcomes of the reserve price schemes (RPS) proposed in 1925 and 1952, respectively. Our findings are that post-war stockpile disposals did not optimise wool growers' incomes, the undercapitalised proposed RPS of the 1920s would have collapsed in the depression, and that the post-1952 RPS would have been in considerable difficulty.     

Pension plan solvency and extreme market movements: a regime switching approach

We develop and test a new approach to assess defined benefit (DB) pension plan solvency risk in the presence of extreme market movements. Our method captures both the ‘fat-tailed’ nature of asset returns and their correlation with discount rate changes. We show that the standard assumption of constant discount rates leads to dramatic underestimation of future projections of pension plan solvency risk. Failing to incorporate leptokurtosis into asset returns also leads to downward biased estimates of risk, but this is less pronounced than the time-varying discount rate effect. Further modifying the model to capture the correlation between asset returns and the discount rate provides additional improvements in the projection of future pension plan solvency. This reduces the perceived future risk of underfunding because of the negative correlation between interest rate changes and asset returns. These results have important implications for those with responsibility for balancing risk against expected return when seeking to improve the current poor funding positions of DB pension schemes.     

Predicting future purchases with the Poisson log-normal model

The negative binomial distribution (NBD) has been widely used in marketing for modeling purchase frequency counts, particularly in packaged goods contexts. A key managerially relevant use of this model is Conditional Trend Analysis (CTA)—a method of benchmarking future sales utilizing the NBD conditional expectation. CTA allows brand managers to identify whether the sales change in a second period is accounted for by previous non-, light, or heavy buyers of the brand. Although a useful tool, the conditional prediction of the NBD suffers from a bias: it under predicts what the period-one non-buyer class will do in period two and over predicts the sales contribution of existing buyers. In addition, the NBD's assumption of a gamma-distributed mean purchase rate lacks theoretical support—it is not possible to explain why a gamma distribution should hold. This paper therefore proposes an alternative model using a log-normal distribution in place of the gamma distribution, hence creating a Poisson log-normal (PLN) distribution. The PLN distribution has a stronger theoretical grounding than the NBD as it has a natural interpretation relying on the central limit theorem. Empirical analysis of brands in multiple categories shows that the PLN distribution gives better predictions than the NBD.     

Counting the cost: the reserve price scheme for wool 1970‐2001

This paper provides a policy commentary on the collapse in 1991 of the Australian Reserve Price Scheme for wool. A key cause of the collapse in the Scheme was a change in the RPS's governance arrangements, which led to increased political pressures to raise prices to unsustainable levels. In addition, in this paper an estimation has been made of the direct, upfront costs of the operation of the scheme, drawing on the financial accounts of the various agencies operating the RPS and subsequent wool stockpile. This was undertaken to determine the scale of the policy failure.     

On globalization ‘with Chinese characteristics’?

This Commentary looks at Globalization ‘with Chinese Characteristics’ (quanqiu hua yu zhongguo tese) as revealed through the lens of President Xi Jinping’s recent speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland in January, 2017. In this, he sets out a positive role for the PRC in the ‘Globalization’ stakes. He also puts himself forward as ‘Expert’, rather than ‘Red’, in the ongoing polemic on the benefits of further reductions in barriers to doing business. But whether this may be taken at its face value remains to be seen. Whilst the Chinese appear to promote more of ‘Globalization’ and the Americans seem to retreat from the model, the world economic community may well suspend its judgement.     

On Empirical mis Research: The Case of Information Requirements Analysis

A major problem infield research in Management Information Systems (mis) is that of controlling and measuring complex behavioural and organizational factors. This paper addresses the difficulties of field research in the area of Information Requirements Analysis (ira) and examines the relationship between the concept of information value and ira. Measurement of the value of information is thus identified as a major source of experimental difficulty. The use of subjective evaluation by users is suggested as a possible approach, and the absence of conclusive field experiments in ira is noted. Possible reasons why a particular field experiment utilizing subjective evaluations did not yield conclusive results are examined. Re-analysis of the data of that study with a new technique yielded more convincing results demonstrating that obtaining significant results in ira field experiments is possible. It is noted that although statistically significant results are not uncommon in laboratory experiments (e.g., simulations), such successes in mis field experiments are rare. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that meaningful results can be obtained in an ira field experiment if the experimental design and technique of analysis are appropriate. Résumé Un des problèmes majeurs dans la recherche relative aux problèmes de gestion de l'information (sgi) est de contrǒler et mesurer les facteurs complexes de comportement et les facteurs organisationnels. Cette étude traite des difficultés que pose la recherche dans le domaine de l'analyse des exigences requises (aer) et examine la relation entre le concept de valeur de l'information et I'aer. La mesure de la valeur de l'information est donc identifiée comme source de difficulté expérimentale. L'usage d'évaluation subjective par les utulisateurs est suggéré à titre d'approche possible et l'absence d'expériences concluantes dans le domaine de I'aer est notée. Les raisons pour laquelle une expérience particulière menée avec des évaluations subjectives n'a pas fourni de résultats concluants ont ete examinées.