运用Excel实现青岛港货物吞吐量的灰色预测

在对青岛港发展现状进行概述的基础上,对青岛港货物吞吐量的发展趋势进行了预测。通过对统计数据的分析,选择了灰色预测模型中的GM(1,1)模型作为预测工具,并运用办公软件Excel实现了数据的计算和计算结果精度的检验。同时,根据预测结果对青岛港发展方向进行分析并给出相关建议。     

宗教信仰对农村老年人死亡态度的影响

利用西安交通大学人口与发展研究所2012年在安徽巢湖进行的“安徽省老年人生活福利状况”调查所获得的数据,研究农村老年人宗教信仰对死亡态度的影响.宗教信仰对农村老年人死亡态度具有显著影响,信仰宗教的农村老年人比不信仰宗教的老年人具有更积极正面的死亡态度.在信仰宗教的农村老年人中,参加宗教活动的比从不参加的在面对死亡时具有更积极正面的态度,宗教信仰能够缓解老年人面对死亡的消极情绪.     

An Empirical Study on Momentum and Contrarian Effects in Chinese Futures Market

As Chinese futures market is on track of standardized development, its efficiency and related investors＇ strategy have drawn wide attention from scholars worldwide. This paper aims to provide an empirical study on momentum and contrarian effects in Chinese futures market. It investigates how efficient this market has been after decades of development and what investment strategy can be used to obtain significant positive excess return. The analysis is based on weekly and monthly trading data of the major commodity futures listed in three Chinese futures exchanges since January, 1999. By establishing a zero-cost investment trading strategy as testing method, this empirical study shows that contrarian effect is significant in both weekly frequency （short term） and monthly frequency （long term）, and that as the holding period extends, the contrarian effect disappears. It also concludes that the reverse effects in the short term and long term origin from three factors： defective information transfer system, mean reversion in the contrarian effect, and immaturity of investors＇ mentality.     

Empirical research on the different innovation engine between China and US manufacturing using an improved method

Most studies arrive at controversial conclusions about the relationship between firm size and technological innovation. Industrial differences and subjective model design are generally considered the primary cause. In static comparisons across industries, dynamic industrial changes are ignored, but this might lead to differing results when attempting to identify the driving forces of evolutionary change in an industrial environment. This study applies nonparametric regression methods with an expansive industry grouping to overcome the industry-difference interference and empirical model error, typifying traditional studies. First, a comparative analysis of the forces driving US and Chinese manufacturing is performed. Results indicate that US and Chinese manufacturing are in different industrial growth stages. Chinese manufacturing takes the traditional elements and R&D input as its main driving factors, which require objectively, expansive scale of enterprise, therefore showing characteristic Schumpeterian innovation. US manufacturing is driven by both R&D and non-R&D inputs; so it can maintain continuous innovation through cooperative networks under conditions of constant or contracting firm size.     

The Cross Section of Expected Real Estate Returns: Insights from Investment-Based Asset Pricing

Motivated by investment-based asset pricing, we show that two firm fundamentals, investment and profitability, have substantial predictive power for REIT returns. The return predictability of investment and profitability is not subsumed by conventional models and can be useful for understanding the cross section of expected REIT returns. To illustrate, we construct an investment-based factor model for REITs that consists of a market factor, an investment factor, and a profitability factor. The investment-based model outperforms conventional models in capturing well-known cross-sectional patterns in REIT returns. Our findings suggest that incorporating investment-based asset pricing can be a promising direction for future real estate finance research.     

“11超日债”事件对投资者刚性兑付信念的影响——基于事件研究法

"11超日债"违约事件作为我国债券市场第一起实质性违约事件,动摇了投资者"刚性兑付"的信念,然而其是否系统证伪了"刚性兑付"的命题仍需检验。本文采用短时窗事件研究法,以交易所公司债为样本,检验其信用价差在事件前后的变化,对超日债事件对信用债定价机制的影响进行实证分析。实证结果显示(1)超日债事件引起交易所公司债信用价差显著增大,但是在经济意义上并不显著;(2)民营企业公司债信用价差增加值大于国营企业公司债信用价差增加值,(3)高收益公司债信用价差增加值大于低收益公司债信用价差增加值。研究结果说明"11超日债"事件仅形成了信用债定价在高低收益、不同发行人背景和市场间的分化,在信用债定价中"刚性兑付"信念仍广泛存在,尚未对市场形成根本性影响。     

税制结构对劳动收入份额的影响机制研究

通常认为,劳动收入份额过低是我国收入分配差距不断扩大的重要原因,而我国的税收制度及其结构是否有效影响了劳动收入份额的变化呢?实证研究表明,我国现行税制结构对劳动收入份额有显著的影响。其中,货劳税不利于劳动收入份额的提高;所得税中的个人所得税会降低劳动收入的份额,而企业所得税对其有正向影响;财产税和其他税对劳动收入份额的提高有正向的影响。为此,我国需要优化货劳税制度,进一步降低货劳税在整个税收收入中的比重;改革所得税制度,加快推行分类与综合相结合的个人所得税制度;完善财产税制度和其他税收制度,提高劳动收入在国民收入分配中的份额,进而缩小居民收入分配差距。     

Profits and Corporate Philanthropy: An Economic Rationale for Dual Mission Firms

This paper provides an economic rationale for corporate social responsibility. We develop a model of a dual mission firm that produces both a private good and a philanthropic good. By incorporating economies of scope arising from shared inputs into our model, we demonstrate that corporate social responsibility and profit maximization can complement each other. Supporters of new legal corporate forms that facilitate the creation of dual mission businesses have persuasive new evidence in support of hybrid firms. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

货币市场基金规模变动与监管政策研究——基于面板数据的实证分析

本文对于面板数据的回归结果表明：在剔除互联网技术或者监管政策等短时外部冲击要素下,基金规模与上期收益率、上期净资金流入都表现出显著正相关性,由此推断,货币市场基金的规模变动是一个动态的自我调节过程,包含内生变动和外生变动两个作用机制.随着我国利率市场化改革进程的深入推进,监管当局应坚持审慎监管原则,推进资本金的逆周期管理,强化行业集中度管理及负债期限结构的流动性要求.     

对当前信贷资产证券化相关制度的反思--基于美国信贷资产证券化的经验教训

本文基于对美国资产证券化发展历程和经验教训的回顾,对中国当前推动信贷资产证券化过程中的监管制度设计进行反思,也对利率市场化加速推进期间资产证券化产品的盈利空间及其可持续性提出质疑。基于此,本文从放松管制、完善法律基础、推动无风险收益率下移、扩大投资者范围和取消贷存比限制等五个方面就如何推动信贷资产证券化持续快速发展提出意见和建议。