Bridging the Gap between Interest Rates and Investments

The links between interest rates, cost of capital, hurdle rates, and capital allocation have been remarkably weak during the last few years. For instance, whereas the current yield on the World Government Bond Index is a paltry 1.2%, survey evidence suggests that the median reported investment hurdle rate of S&P 100 companies is as high as 18%. In this report, members of J.P Morgan's corporate finance advisory group explain why the cost of capital for most companies is unlikely to increase materially even if interest rates rise as projected. This suggests that companies have room to lower their hurdle rates. Moreover, as the authors argue, a reduction in hurdle rates is likely to be beneficial since excessively high hurdle rates can have the effect of reducing value by sacrificing profitable growth opportunities and increasing the firm's risk profile. The report concludes with a framework for corporate hurdle rates and capital allocation strategies designed to help companies make better investment decisions.     

Forecasting the Yen/U.S. Dollar exchange rate: Empirical evidence from a capital enhanced relative PPP-based model

This study uses a relative purchasing power parity (PPP) model based on price indexes (consumer, CPI or traded-goods price indexes, TPI), interest rate differentials, and a linear forecasting technique to determine the horizon over which such a model outperforms a random walk in forecasting the Yen/U.S. Dollar exchange rates out-of-sample. The results improve if one adjusts a simple CPI-based PPP-model by interest rate differentials, while the best results are obtained using a TPI-based PPP-model. For example, the TPI-based model, adjusted by interest rate differentials, is able to statistically significantly outperform the pure random walk starting at forecast horizons of 1 month.     

Transaction Structure in Japanese Small Business Sector

An attempt has been made to examine some aspects of transaction structure of the small business sector in Japanese manufacturing. It has been found that there are some interesting findings in the industrial organization of the sector (1) In the transactions of intermediate goods with manufacturing, small businesses have more frequent transactions with other small businesses than with large firms. On the other hand, large firms have more transactions with each other than with small businesses; (2) The transactions between SMEs and large firms, and between SMEs themselves vary from industry to industry, depending on production/demand structure of an industry and product structure of its SMEs sector; (3) In engineering, such as electrical machinery and transport equipment, the intra-industry transactions from small businesses to large firms are great, suggesting a larger extent of subcontracting relationships. Also, textiles, clothing, and printing and publishing also have higher subcontracting transactions.The relationships are different between the two groups.     

Employment change in independent owner-managed high-technology firms in Great Britain

There is a growing volume of literature that points to the potential for small technology-based firms to achieve substantial employment growth. As a direct consequence of such work this sector of any economy has attracted increasing attention from national and local Governments concerned with finding ways of revitalising economically deprived localities and creating employment opportunities. This paper provides up-to-date empirical evidence surrounding the ability of small high-technology firms to create additional jobs in Great Britain. In addition, key founder and business characteristics are isolated which are significantly associated with employment change in growing high-technology firms over the 1986 to 1992 period. With respect to factors influencing these high levels of employment growth, a high firm size (in 1986) was found to act positively on employment growth, as was a graduate level education for the key founder. On the finance side firms which had access to and used a multiplicity of sources of start-up finance tended to grow faster. Futher, on the basis of our results we would suggest (and recommend) a Government policy which at the firm level actively encourages high-technology firm start-ups (who record higher rates of survival than firms in more conventional sectors) as well as providing support for existing high-technology firms who have already demonstrated the inclination and ability to grow in employment size.