A national energy-conservation policy Delphi: report of the findings

In formulating a National Energy Conservation Policy, it is essential to be aware of all available options as well as the opinions of experts. The Policy Delphi approach is used hereto identify policy issues involved in conserving energy in the national context. The three objectives of this study were 1) to identify and select critical, operational, and future-oriented policy statements concerning energy conservation, 2) to obtain the consensus of experts in the field, and 3) to estimate the potential utility of the technique in studying energy conservation policy planning. The study was conducted in three rounds. The results favored the formulation and implementation of a national policy on energy conservation. This study is expected to be of use to policy-planning agencies like the Planning Commission, Ministry of Energy, Department of Science and Technology, etc.     

Further Evidence on the Effect of Clean Indoor Air Laws on Smoking: The Italian Case

The evidence about the effectiveness of anti-smoking legislation on smoking behavior is mixed. We provide new estimates for Italy using unexplored data drawn from the Household Budget Survey. We show that the smoking ban introduced in 2005 has a significant effect on smoking incidence. According to our baseline specification, the ban reduces household-based smoking prevalence by 1.3 percentage points. Results are robust to the various empirical strategies proposed in the literature, even accounting for seasonality.     

Is technological change really skill‐biased? Evidence from the introduction of ICT on the Italian textile industry (1980–2000)

This paper investigates the effects of the introduction of information and communication technologies (ICT) on the skills of a workforce. Using micro-data collected from workers in the textile sector, we analyse whether the introduction of ICT has modified workers' tasks, so that higher skills and longer training periods than before are necessary. Empirical evidence suggests that the adoption of ICT has no universal skill-biased effect for all occupations at least in the textile sector.     

The Gender Employment Gap: Costs and Policy Responses

This paper will firstly investigate the economic and the social costs associated with the observed gender employment gap. It will then discuss key aspects of the needed policy responses to foster and promote labour market participation among women.     

Are pesticides risk decreasing? The relevance of pesticide indicator choice in empirical analysis

The reduction of adverse health and environmental effects from pesticide use is currently a top priority on the agricultural policy agenda. Efficient pesticide policies must take into account farmers’ application behavior, especially effects of pesticide use on economic risk. However, previous results regarding the direction of risk effects of pesticides are ambiguous. We show that the ambiguity in earlier studies could be due to the pesticide indicator selected. Indicators which fail to account for the heterogeneous properties of pesticides may be inapt for interpreting farmers’ pesticide use decisions. Our analysis, based on a rich panel dataset of Swiss wheat producers with highly detailed information on pesticide use, considers different pesticide indicators and multiple sources of uncertainty. Our key finding is that indicator choice affects the magnitude and sign of estimated risk effects. Estimates of pesticide productivity and risk effects are significantly higher for fungicides, and even reversed for herbicides when we measure pesticide use in simple quantity units (kilogram per hectare) - compared to the quality and intensity corrected Load Index. This means for example, that farmers will ceteris paribus use lower quantities of herbicides, but will increase the overall toxicity of the products applied with increasing risk aversion. We discuss implications of our findings for the design of pesticide policies and agricultural risk management instruments.     

Trade Credits and Bank Credits in International Trade: Substitutes or Complements?

Trade credits are an important financing tool for internationally active firms. This is surprising, as trade credits are generally more expensive than bank credits and thus a costly substitute for bank financing. In this paper, we investigate the relation between trade credits and bank credits for exporting firms. We develop a theoretical model and show that trade credits convey a quality signal which reduces the risk of the transaction and may thus facilitate obtaining additional bank credits. Hence, exporters who are not able to obtain bank credits in the first place use trade credits and bank credits complementarily. Using panel data on large German manufacturing firms, we provide supportive evidence for our theoretical predictions. In general, trade credits and bank credits are substitutes. For financially constrained exporters, the overall substitution effect is attenuated which is consistent with a positive signalling effect.     

Sequential choice designs to estimate the heterogeneity distribution of willingness-to-pay

Two prominent approaches exist nowadays for estimating the distribution of willingness-to-pay (WTP) based on choice experiments. One is to work in the usual preference space in which the random utility model is expressed in terms of partworths. These partworths or utility coefficients are estimated together with their distribution. The WTP and the corresponding heterogeneity distribution of WTP is derived from these results. The other approach reformulates the utility in terms of WTP (called WTP-space) and estimates the WTP and the heterogeneity distribution of WTP directly. Though often used, working in preference space has severe drawbacks as it often leads to WTP-distributions with long flat tails, infinite moments and therefore many extreme values. By moving to WTP-space, authors have tried to improve the estimation of WTP and its distribution from a modeling perspective. In this paper we will further improve the estimation of individual level WTP and corresponding heterogeneity distribution by designing the choice sets more efficiently. We will generate individual sequential choice designs in WTP space. The use of this sequential approach is motivated by findings of Yu et al. (2011) who show that this approach allows for superior estimation of the utility coefficients and their distribution. The key feature of this approach is that it uses Bayesian methods to generate individually optimized choice sets sequentially based on prior information of each individual which is further updated after each choice made. Based on a simulation study in which we compare the efficiency of this sequential design procedure with several non-sequential choice designs, we can conclude that the sequential approach improves the estimation results substantially.     

Integrated mixed logit and latent variable models

Extending the traditional discrete choice model by incorporating latent psychological factors can help to better understand the individual’s decision-making process and therefore to yield more reliable part-worth estimates and market share predictions. Several integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV) models which merge the conditional logit model with a structural equation model exist in the literature. They assume homogeneity in the part-worths and use latent variables to model the heterogeneity among the respondents. This paper starts from the mixed logit model that describes the heterogeneity in the part-worths and uses the latent variables to decrease the unexplained part of the heterogeneity. The empirical study presented here shows these ICLV models perform very well with respect to model fit and prediction.