Laws of large numbers for Hayashi–Yoshida-type functionals

The main object in the statistical analysis of high-frequency financial data are sums of functionals of increments of stochastic processes, and statistical inference is based on the asymptotic behaviour of these sums as the mesh of the observation times tends to zero. Inspired by the famous Hayashi–Yoshida estimator for the quadratic covariation based on two asynchronously observed stochastic processes, we investigate similar sums for general functionals. We find that our results differ from corresponding results for synchronous observations, a case which has been well studied in the literature, and we observe that the asymptotic behaviour in the setting of asynchronous observations is not only determined by the nature of the functional, but also depends crucially on the asymptotics of the observation scheme. Several examples are discussed, including the case of \(f(x_{1},x_{2}) = |x_{1}|^{p_{1}} |x_{2}|^{p_{2}}\) which has various applications in empirical finance.

     

Transition as a process of large-scale institutional change

After several years of transition experience the theory is very poorly developed except in regard to macroeconomtc stabilization. Another key dimension of transition is institutional change to provide the organizational infrastructure for a market economy. Such issues are analysed here through a series of models focusing on: uncertainty of outcomes, complementarities and interactions between reforms, and political constraints. The choice between “big bang” and more gradualist strategies is studied under various conditions and the paper also examines specific incentive and allocative aspects of the transition from socialism to capitalism.     

Esophageal calcification after corrosive injury

A clinically silent case of intramural esophageal calcification secondary to corrosive injury is presented. Computed tomography (CT) demonstrated a circular calcified esophageal wall over a distance of 5 cm leaving a residual esophageal lumen of 5 mm.     

Structural changes in world trade since the oil crisis

The sudden shock of the fivefold increase of the price of oil in the autumn of 1973 has been reflected since in the world trade by structural changes in its composition by categories of goods and its regional distribution. How has the international trade coped with this shock, and which more recent tendencies can be observed in the structure of world trade, not least as a result of cyclical impulses?     

Gestaltung von Tarifen für kommunikationsfähige Messsysteme im Verbund mit zeitvariablen Stromtarifen

In Germany too, communication-capable electricity metering systems (CMS) together with time-based differentiation of kWh-rates for energy consumption are increasingly proliferated among household customers. Nevertheless, empirical evidence with respect to preferences of members of this customer group for the design of CMS tariff elements and of time-variant electricity consumption rates is still scarce. The present study captures such preferences by means of conjoint analysis of data obtained in an online survey of 754 German-speaking adults. Examined CMS tariff elements are a one-off installation fee and monthly recurring use charges. The studied characteristics of time-based rates are the number of time/tariff blocks, the maximum spread between kWh-rates for different time windows and the adaptability/predictability of kWh-rates. Most respondents judged multidimensional CMS and electricity consumption tariff offerings mainly in light of the CMS tariff characteristics. The vast majority of the participants perceived kWh-rates, which may change with a minimum lead time of one day as reducing the benefit of CMS and consumption tariff bundles. Tariff preferences on the one hand were only rarely significantly related to customers’ socio-demographic and electricity procurement characteristics as well as their CMS-related expectations/assessments on the other. The willingness to accept CMS-related one-off installation and recurring service charges as well as the propensity to opt for time-dependent electricity consumption tariff variants differing clearly from non-differentiated electricity price schemes appear to be positively affected by customers’ practical application experience with CMS and time-variant electricity consumption rates. Conclusions are drawn for energy suppliers seeking to propagate CMS-based time-variant tariffs among household customers in Germany and for future scholarly research.     

Social norms and the indirect evolution of conditional cooperation

We develop a model of social norms and cooperation in large societies. Within this framework we use an indirect evolutionary approach to study the endogenous formation of preferences and the co-evolution of norm compliance. The multiplicity of equilibria, which emerges in the presence of social norms, is linked to the evolutionary analysis: individuals face situations where many others cooperate as well as situations where a majority free-rides. The evolutionary adaptation to such heterogenous environments favors conditional cooperators, who condition their pro-social behavior on the others’ cooperation. As conditional cooperators react flexibly to their social environment, they dominate free-riders as well as unconditional cooperators.     

Asymptotic seat bias formulas

Apportionment methods are used to round the vote proportions of parties in a proportional representation system to integer numbers of seats in the parliament. Seat biases quantify by how much on average a particular apportionment method favors larger (or smaller) parties. In this paper, we prove a previous conjecture on asymptotic seat biases of stationary divisor methods and the quota method of greatest remainders, as the size of the parliament tends to infinity.