De Moivre's Poisson Approximation to the Binomial

In his first work on probability, written in 1711, Abraham De Moivre looked at the problem of finding the number of trials required in a binomial experiment to achieve a probability of 1/2 of finding at least some given number of successes. He looked at two cases: when the probability of success  p  = 1/2 and when  p  is small but  n , the number of trials, is large. In the latter case, unlike other problems that he solved in probability, De Moivre never revealed his method of solution. We explore the solution that De Moivre originally suggests and find that his method does not work. We explore other numerical solutions and put forward the suggestion that De Moivre relied on a very cumbersome and tedious method of solution based on his earlier work on series in the 1690s. Since his method was neither quick nor mathematically elegant, he never revealed the method that he used to obtain his numerical solutions.     

The contribution of organic farming to rural development: An exploration of the socio-economic linkages of organic and non-organic farms in England

Organic farming has experienced considerable growth in recent years. Proponents of organic farming point to the environmental and nutritional benefits of organic systems, although these are contested by some. More recently, it has been argued that organic farming can provide rural development benefits through enhanced employment and through closer connections with the local economy, reconnecting consumers with producers and stimulating positive economic multipliers. Against the background of claims made for the rural development potential of organic farming, this paper considers the generation and retention of income, purchasing patterns, and direct employment impacts of a large sample of organic and non-organic farmers in England. The paper reveals some important distinctions between the characteristics of organic and non-organic farms and farmers. It is argued that most of these differences do not stem directly from differences in farming systems but, rather, reflect considerable differences in the people who operate organic farms as well as the distinctive business configurations they frequently adopt.     

Smartphones Could Make Keys Obsolete

Front pockets and purses are slowly being emptied of one of civilization's most basic and enduring tools: the key.It's being swallowed by the cellphone.New technology lets smartphones unlock hotel, office and house doors and open garages and even car doors. It's a not-too-distant cousin of the technology that allows key fobs to remotely unlock automobiles or key cards to be waved beside electronic pads at office entrances.What's new is that it is on the device more people are using as the Swiss Army knife of electronics, in equal parts phone, memo pad, stereo, map, GPS unit, and camera and game machine.     

The Causal Effect of Education on Wages Revisited*

This study estimates the return to education in Britain using two instrumental variable (IV) estimators: one exploits variation in schooling associated with early smoking, the other uses the raising of the school leaving age; both affect a sizeable proportion of the sample. Early smoking is found to be a strong and valid IV and unlike previous IV strategies uses variations in education at numerous points across the distributions of (i) education, and (ii) ability. Thus whilst still a ‘local average treatment effect’ the estimate is closer to the average effect of additional education, akin to least squares but corrected for endogeneity.     

Factors Influencing Corporate Environmental Disclosures

We investigate the effectiveness of the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP), a not‐for‐profit organization that facilitates environmental disclosures of firms with institutional investors, thereby serving as a corporate governance mechanism for shareholders to influence the firm's environmental disclosures. We examine firm characteristics associated with firms' decisions to disclose carbon‐related information via the CDP for a sample of 319 Canadian firms over a four‐year period. In particular, we examine how firms' decisions to disclose via CDP are associated with shareholder activism, litigation risk, and the opportunity for low‐cost positive publicity once requested by the firms' “signatory” investors. Our results also show that management's decision to release climate change data is associated with domestic, but not foreign, signatory investors. We also find that disclosing firms tend to be those from lower polluting industries with less exposure to litigation risk. This suggests that this new form of coordinated shareholder activism may not be successful at altering the behavior of firms that are heavier polluters.     

The tools of cooperation and change

Employers can choose from lots of tools when they want to encourage employees to work together toward a new corporate goal. One of the rarest managerial skills is the ability to understand which tools will work in a given situation and which will misfire. Cooperation tools fall into four major categories: power, management, leadership, and culture. Choosing the right tool, say the authors, requires assessing the organization along two critical dimensions: the extent to which people agree on what they want and the extent to which they agree on cause and effect, or how to get what they want. The authors plot on a matrix where various organizations fall along these two dimensions. Employees represented in the lower-left quadrant of the model, for example, disagree strongly both about what they want and on what actions will produce which results. Those in the upper-right quadrant agree on both dimensions. Different quadrants call for different tools. When employees share little consensus on either dimension, for instance, the only methods that will elicit cooperation are "power tools" such as fiat, force, and threats. Yugoslavia's Josip Broz Tito wielded such devices effectively. So did Jamie Dimon, current CEO of J.P. Morgan Chase, during the bank's integration with Bank One. For employees who agree on what they want but not on how to get it--think of Microsoft in 1995--leadership tools, such as vision statements, are more appropriate. Some leaders are blessed with an instinct for choosing the right tools--Continental Airlines' Gordon Bethune, General Electric's Jack Welch, and IBM's Lou Gerstner are all examples. Others can use this framework to help select the most appropriate tools for their circumstances.