Monetary policy transmission and macroeconomic policy coordination in Pacific island countries

During the global financial crisis, central banks in Pacific island countries eased monetary policy to stimulate economic activity. Judging by the ensuing movements in commercial bank interest rates and private sector credit, monetary policy transmission appears to be weak. This is confirmed by an empirical examination of interest rate pass‐through and credit growth. Weak credit demand and under‐developed financial markets seem to have limited the effectiveness of monetary policy, but the inflexibility of exchange rates and rising real interest rates have also served to frustrate the central banks' efforts despite a supporting fiscal policy. While highlighting the importance of developing domestic financial markets in the long run, this experience also points to the need to coordinate macroeconomic policies and to use all macroeconomic tools available in conducting countercyclical policies, including exchange rate flexibility.     

Fiscal Realities for the State and Local Governments

The U.S. economic slump of 2008, as usual for all economic slumps, has taken a dramatic toll on state and local government revenues and budget surpluses. As predictable as this is when properly modeled, states in particular have been even less well prepared than normal. Therefore, it appears that government budget officers, policymakers and their economic advisors, and private-sector economists need help in understanding the external and internal drivers of budget outcomes. A primary goal of this study is to quantify the highly regular, cyclical revenue patterns that emerge when actual revenues are purified of legislated changes. This should assist policy formulation today—as states consider higher tax rates or borrowing—by promoting an understanding of what is temporary and what is permanent in the current revenue weakness. Moreover, if these lessons are learned, future revenue forecasting and budget planning at the state and local levels should be materially enhanced. A second goal is to examine the true sources of the exceptional expenditure growth that precluded the normal buildup of a solid surplus during the economic boom of 2003–2007. The principal culprit is shown to be state and local government pay inflation that has far exceeded private sector norms for the past three years rather than an exceptional medical care burden, as some might think.     

Seasonality in Fund Performance: An Examination of the Portfolio Holdings and Trades of Investment Managers

Abstract:  This study examines the extent to which seasonal variation arises across calendar months in the performance of active Australian equity managers. While it is well documented that there is seasonality in equity market returns, it is unknown whether calendar month variation in managed fund performance exists. Employing a unique database of monthly stock holdings, we find evidence consistent with systematic variation in the risk-adjusted performance of active investment managers over the calendar year. Specifically, we find fund performance is higher in the months when corporate earnings are announced. We also document that the performance of fund managers is lower in the months preceding the tax year-end. Finally, we report evidence that investment manager performance is greater than normal in December, possibly due to both window dressing and the Christmas holiday effect. These findings have important implications for investors attempting to exploit anomalies in fund returns by timing their entry and exit points from active equity funds.     

Impact of on-field football success on the off-field financial performance of AFL football clubs

In this study, we examine the factors that contribute to the financial performance of clubs in the Australian Football League over the period from 1993 to 2002. Primarily, we examine the association between the on‐field football success of clubs and their level of off‐field financial performance. We find that match attendance is positively related to both short‐term and long‐term success of football clubs and also to the uncertainty as to the match outcome (i.e. the expected closeness of the match). We also find that club membership is highly persistent and is positively related to both the past football success of the club and the marketing expense incurred. Finally, we find that there is a significant association between the level of marketing revenue and the level of on‐field success in the prior 2 years.     

The Ethics of Compensation Systems

Compensation systems are an integral part of the relationships organizations establish with their employees. For many years, researchers viewed pay systems as an efficient way to bring market-like labour exchanges inside organizations. This view suggested that only economic considerations matter for understanding how compensation systems effect organizations and their employees. Advances in organizational research, particularly those focused on issues of justice and fairness, suggest that the fully understanding the outcomes of compensation systems requires examining their psychological, social, and moral effects.     

A computational approach to pricing a bank credit line

Using trended Brownian motion to characterize borrower cash needs over time, we are able to derive a probability density function for the time to depletion of a bank credit line as well as the likelihoods for the time to exhausting the sources of liquidity that fund the loan. Armed with these analytic results, we solve for the credit line mark-up rate and the configuration of stored liquidity that maximizes the bank’s intertemporal expected profits from the loan. The optimality conditions produce a system of integral differential equations whose solutions we then simulate over a host of scenarios.     

COMPSTAT, COMMUNITY POLICING AND THE SCIENCE OF SUCCESS: A MARKET-BASED APPROACH TO POLICE MANAGEMENT

Police departments in the USA have begun to embrace recommendations from two police management philosophies. However, it is often unclear whether these recommendations conflict with or complement each other. This article suggests that viewing these philosophies from a market-based perspective will enable police forces in the UK to better apply their recommendations.