Die Erwartungen der Wirtschaft für 2016

Last year saw only a moderate economic upturn, which will continue in 2016. Geopolitical risks and the loss of momentum in the emerging economies are obstacles that may hinder a positive trend in exports. However, the falling crude oil price and the low euro currency rate give hope for better prospects. On the domestic front, there is a strong focus on the digitisation of all sectors. Meanwhile, many problems result from the low level of investments and the high energy costs resulting from the energy transition. The insurance industry views the low-yield environment, which greatly intensified last year, as its main challenge in 2016.     

Ex post unbalanced tournaments

Tournaments create strong incentives under the assumption that the competition between the agents is balanced. If, at the outset, one agent is stronger than the other, the tournament is ex ante unbalanced and incentives break down. Handicaps can in this case restore incentives. In practice, competing agents are often overall equally strong but have different sorts of strengths. Then, competition will typically be unbalanced ex post and incentives break down, but handicaps cannot be used. We show how a simple means, introducing the possibility of a tie, can often resolve the problem. We examine under what conditions incentives are maximized by ties.     

Modelling economic hysteresis losses caused by sunk adjustment costs

Transition from one economic equilibrium to another as a consequence of shocks is often associated with sunk adjustment costs. Firm-specific sunk market entry investments (or sunk market exit costs) in case of a reaction to price shocks are an example. These adjustment costs lead to a dynamic supply pattern similar to hysteresis. In analogy to “hysteresis losses” in ferromagnetism, the authors explicitly model dynamic adjustment losses in the course of market entry and exit cycles. They start from the micro level of a single firm and use explicit aggregation tools from hysteresis theory in mathematics and physics to calculate dynamic losses. The authors show that strong market fluctuations generate disproportionately large hysteresis losses for producers. This could give a reason for the implementation of stabilizing measures and policies to prevent strong (price) variations or, alternatively, to reduce the sunk entry and exit costs.     

Trading strategies with partial access to the derivatives market

This research analyzes trading strategies with derivatives when there are several assets and risk factors. We investigate portfolio improvement if investors have full and partial access to the derivatives markets, i.e. situations in which derivatives are written on some but not all stocks or risk factors traded on the market. The focus is on markets with jump risk. In these markets the choice of optimal exposures to jump and diffusion risk is linked. In a numerical application we study the potential benefit from adding derivatives to the market. It turns out that e.g. diffusion correlation and volatility or jump sizes may have a significant impact on the benefit of a new derivative product even if market prices of risk remain unchanged. Given the structure of risk investors may have different preferences for making risk factors tradable. Utility gains provided by new derivatives may be both increasing or decreasing depending on the type of contract added.     

Entrepreneurship as a non-profit-seeking activity

It is typically assumed that people engage in entrepreneurship because there are profits to be made. In contrast to this view, this paper argues that entrepreneurship is more adequately characterized as a non-profit-seeking activity. Evidence from a broad range of authors and academic fields is discussed showing that entrepreneurship does quite generally not pay in monetary terms. Being an entrepreneur seems to be rather rewarding because it entails substantial non-monetary benefits, like greater autonomy, broader skill utilization, and the possibility to pursue one’s own ideas. It is shown how incorporating these non-monetary benefits into economic models of entrepreneurship can lead to a better understanding of the phenomenon.

How managers protect intellectual property rights in China using de facto strategies

Foreign firms trying to protect their intellectual property rights (IPRs) in emerging economies are suffering real pressures because these economies usually offer little or no enforcement of IPR. Foreign firms therefore have to resort to approaches unlike those they use in developed countries. This paper explores what managers of foreign firms in China have already tried in their efforts to achieve effective IPR protection – specifically, they have crafted de facto strategies that can protect IPR without using China's legal system or engaging in lawsuits against imitators. These strategies work, and this paper explains how and why, thus offering a potential template for IPR protection in other economies with weak appropriability systems.     

EU Policies for Refugee Protection and Immigration: Cooperation is Key

The contrast between the common sense messages and humanitarian aspirations of the Compact on the one hand, and certain influential proposals for EU asylum policy on the other, points to a deeper problem with the EU asylum system.     

Die Erwartungen der Wirtschaft für 2018

The German economy experiences a boom period. The leading economic research institutes upgrade their economic balance for 2017 to a growth rate exceeding two per cent and their forecasts for 2018 are equally positive. This optimism is widespread despite the UK’s exit from the EU, the protectionist tendencies and the difficult coalition-building in Germany. Technological innovations look ahead: manufacturing industry and trade sector have to react to digital transformation — i.e. electro-mobility, autonomous driving, the use of artificial intelligence and the spread of online trading.     

Deploying strategic resources: comparing members of farmer cooperatives to non-members in sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

Primary producers in global value chains, like any other firm, aim for entrepreneurial success through deploying strategic resources, collective action, strategic intent, and a supportive institutional environment. In the current article, we analyze the extent to which members of farmer cooperatives in Ethiopia succeed in deploying strategic resources. We find that non-members utilize resources more efficiently and that the potential for collective action is not realized. The potential for collective action remains unrealized due to the institutional environment. We suggest pathways for further research.