A Simple Model of Hysteresis in Employment under Exchange Rate Uncertainty

A model leading to employment hysteresis due to sunk hiring- and firing-costs is proposed. A potential mechanism based on a band of inaction that could account for a 'weaker' relationship between employment and its determinants is augmented by exchange rate uncertainty. As a result of option value effects the band of inaction is widened. Thus, the hysteresis effects are strongly amplified by exchange rate uncertainty (as numerical examples demonstrate). Non-linearities in the employment-relation are implied, i.e. 'spurts' in new employment or firing may occur after an initially weak response to a reversal of the exchange rate.     

IT Competence in Internet Founder Teams

In the Net Economy, numerous start-ups relying on Internet-based business models have been founded in the recent years. In these ventures IT experts are confronted with different requirements to those of traditional software development. It can thus be assumed that founders in the Net Economy prefer IT experts with a different competence profile. Based on an elaborate competence model for IT experts in Internet-based ventures, founder preferences are empirically analyzed and related to the novelty of the venture’s product. An adaptive conjoint analysis is applied to obtain utility values for single components of competence. Using cluster analysis, four different competence profiles are identified which correspond to prototypical IT experts bearing different core functions. Data analysis suggests that founders with more innovative products differ from founders with less innovative products in their perception of the optimal IT expert’s competence profile. The results have implications both for career decisions of IT experts and for founders of Internet start-ups who are looking for co-founding IT experts. This study is one of the first to explicitly focus on IT competence in Internet-based ventures. It therefore extends existing research on IT competence to a new and dynamic industry.     

Transparency and Regional Integration in the Asia Pacific

We show in this paper that increasing the transparency of the trading environment can be an important complement to traditional liberalisation of tariff and non‐tariff barriers. Our definition of transparency is grounded in a transaction cost analysis. We focus on two dimensions of transparency: predictability (reducing the cost of uncertainty) and simplification (reducing information costs). Using the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) member economies as a case study, we construct indices of importer and exporter transparency for the region from a wide range of sources. Our results from a gravity model suggest that improving trade‐related transparency in APEC could hold significant benefits by raising intra‐APEC trade by approximately US$148 billion or 7.5 per cent of baseline trade in the region. Action to improve transparency measures examined could be undertaken in many forms, including within the current APEC framework or future talks on a Free Trade Area in the Asia Pacific.     

Aid-for-trade facilitation

‘Aid for Trade’ is an ongoing and high-profile discussion associated with the Doha negotiations of the World Trade Organization. It also relates to questions of how best to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. Questions remain, however, about whether foreign aid spent on trade facilitation increases trade flows of developing countries. Does it work differently from aid in general? Using detailed data on aid flows from the OECD, the analysis here estimates the relationship between specific types of aid and trade flows, both globally and of the aid recipients. The findings indicate that aid spent on promoting trade is positively associated with global trade. For most types of such aid-for-trade facilitation, it is relatively more strongly associated with recipient exports than their imports. In contrast ‘other’ types of aid are more strongly associated with recipient imports. Based on elasticities estimated over 16 years of trade and aid data for 40 donor countries and about 170 country trading pairs, our results suggest that a 1% increase in aid-for-trade facilitation (of about US220 million in 2008) correlates to about US 220 million in 2008) correlates to about US 290 million of additional exports from the aid receiving countries.     

Low cost country sourcing and its effects on the total cost of ownership structure for a medical devices manufacturer

In this paper, we describe a total cost of ownership (TCO) method as an activity-based costing (ABC) application along the value chain to measure and analyse the costs of international sourcing activities. We further describe the method's implementation for a manufacturer of high-tech medical devices. For this case study, we analyse the effects of shifting purchasing volume from traditional procurement market suppliers to low cost country suppliers on the cost structure of purchasing projects. We find that particularly costs at component and supplier level gain importance over traditionally dominating unit level costs. Furthermore, we identify low cost country sourcing as a decision with extensive impact on value chain entities other than purchasing. Finally, a considerable part of costs in low cost country sourcing accrue at the beginning of a purchasing project due to problems stemming from unsatisfactory initial quality, language barriers and intercultural communication.     

Can satellite‐based weather index insurance improve the hedging of yield risk of perennial non‐irrigated olive trees in Spain?*

Olive oil yields fluctuate strongly due to their dependence on sufficient precipitation. An interesting option to hedge the yield risk in olive cultivation could be satellite‐based weather index insurance. Therefore, we implement index insurance as a hedging alternative for non‐irrigated olive groves using MODerate‐resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data. For this purpose, we focus on the Spanish region of Andalusia, given its importance in olive production at the international level. We calculate three satellite indices: the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), the Temperature Condition Index (TCI) and the Vegetation Health Index (VHI). Meteorological indices related to temperature and precipitation are used as benchmarks. Firstly, we estimate the periods that have the greatest influence on the critical vegetative phase of olives, which extends from March to September. Based on the indices, insurance contracts are designed using a copula approach, which is then employed to evaluate their hedging effectiveness. On average, the hedging effectiveness of VCI‐, VHI‐ and TCI‐based weather index insurance contracts amounts to 38 per cent, 38 per cent and 29 per cent, respectively. Moreover, VCI‐ and VHI‐based weather index insurance contracts outperform traditional weather index insurance contracts based on precipitation (by 29 per cent) and temperature (by 16 per cent) indices.     

Optimal allocation of the sample size to strata under box constraints

In stratified random sampling without replacement boundary conditions, such as the sample sizes within strata shall not exceed the population sizes in the respective strata, have to be considered. Stenger and Gabler (Metrika, 61:137–156, 2005) have shown a solution that satisfies upper boundaries of sample fractions within the strata. However, in modern applications one may wish to guarantee also minimal sampling fractions within strata in order to allow for reasonable separate estimations. Within this paper, an optimal allocation in the Neyman-Tschuprov sense is developed which satisfies upper and lower bounds of the sample sizes within strata. Further, a stable algorithm is given which ensures optimality. The resulting sample allocation enables users to bound design weights within stratified random sampling while considering optimality in allocation.     

Aligning technology,business and regulatory scenarios for cognitive radio

The amount of wireless and mobile applications and devices is rapidly growing. This exponential growth might be hindered by a scarcity of suitable radio spectrum, a necessary but limited natural resource required for all wireless communications. Spectrum scarcity does not only slow down data growth, but may also disrupt existing communications. Cognitive radio may provide a solution to these issues, but although the concept seems promising, few products making use of CR have been brought to the market. This is due to significant uncertainties surrounding the appropriate economic scenario for CR, the regulatory framework and the technology enablers needed for such CR scenario. As business, regulatory and technical constraints are largely co-determined by each other, this paper proposes to align them, paving the road for the implementation of specific economic scenarios with appropriate regulation. First, from the business perspective, a taxonomy of possible economic scenarios for CR is proposed. Second, for each scenario a number of regulatory requirements – based on a European context – and characteristics are given. In doing so, it is argued that the economic scenarios are inherently distinct so that CR regulation should be customized for the type of scenario envisaged. Third, from the technology perspective, this article reviews the possible CR enablers, showing that spectrum sensing, CPC and geolocation database all have their strengths and weaknesses, and receive varying support from business and regulators. Based on the analysis it can be concluded that, although the introduction of CR does not seem problematic for the unlicensed scenario and the flexible operator scenario, more complex measures are required to enable CR to contribute to the implementation of spectrum pool—and spectrum market scenarios. It can also be concluded that, out of the three proposed alternatives, the geolocation database is the most likely candidate to be used for CR purposes. However, although this database is a clear favorite for applications within the TV White Spaces, spectrum sensing should not be discarded as a potential CR enabler for highly sensitive applications in high-density radio environments.