Non-commitment and savings in dynamic risk-sharing contracts

Summary. We characterize the solution to a dynamic model of risk sharing under non-commitment when saving is possible. Savings can play two important roles. First savings can be used to smooth aggregate consumption across different periods. Second, when savings are observable, they can act as a collateral that can be seized in the case of default. This relaxes the non-commitment constraint. When the aggregate income is fixed or when one of the agent is risk neutral, the allocation tends to first-best consumption. When one of the agent is risk neutral, this convergence occurs in an expected finite number of periods.Received: 17 March 2004, Revised: 8 March 2005, JEL Classification Numbers: C7, D9.Michel Poitevin: Correspondence toWe gratefully acknowledge financial support from F.C.A.R., C.R.S.H. and C.I.R.A.N.O.     

Creativity over time and space

Creativity is often highly concentrated in time and space, and across different domains. What explains the formation and decay of clusters of creativity? We match data on notable individuals born in Europe between the eleventh and the nineteenth centuries with historical city data. The production and attraction of creative talent is associated with city institutions that protected economic and political freedoms and promoted local autonomy. Instead, indicators of local economic conditions such as city size and real wages, do not predict creative clusters. We also show that famous creatives are spatially concentrated and clustered across disciplines, that their spatial mobility has remained stable over the centuries, and that creative clusters are persistent but less than population.

     

Multi-Event Bonus-Malus Scales

This article is devoted to the design of bonus‐malus scales involving different types of claims. Typically, claims with or without bodily injuries, or claims with full or partial liability of the insured driver, are distinguished and entail different penalties. Under mild assumptions, claim severities can also be taken into account in this way. Numerical illustrations enhance the interest of the approach.     

Is It Possible to Construct Derivatives for the Paris Residential Market?

Index-based derivatives markets are fast developing in Europe, the US and Asia. Both valuation based and transactions based indices are used as bases for these derivatives contracts. This paper addresses the issue of revision effects on key index parameters, and their implications for derivatives pricing and questions whether these indices may be suitable for derivatives. More specifically, we address the issue of the robustness of the price level, mean, and volatility estimates for two repeat sales real estate price indices: the classical Weighted Repeat Sales (WRS) method and a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) factorial method, as elaborated in Baroni et al. (J Real Estate Res, 29(2):137–158, 2007). Our work is an extension of Clapham et al. (Real Estate Econ, 34(2):275–302, 2006), with the aim of helping judge the efficiency of such indices in designing real estate derivatives. We use an extensive repeat sales database for the Paris (France) residential market. We describe the dataset used and compute the parameters (index price level, trend and volatility) of the indices produced over the period 1982–2005. We then test the sensitivity of these two indices to revisions due to additional repeat-sales transactions information. Our analysis is conducted on the overall Paris market as well as on sub-markets. Our main conclusion is that even if the revision problem may cause substantial concern for the stability of key parameters that are used as inputs in the pricing of derivatives contracts, the order of magnitude of revision on derivatives pricing is not sufficient to deter market participants when it comes to products such a swap contract or insurance contracts against severe losses. We also show that WRS and PCA react differently to revision. The impact of index revision is non negligible in estimating the index price level for both indices. This result is consistent with existing literature for the US and Swedish markets. Price level revision causes moderate concern when trading products such as index futures or price insurance contracts, but could deter option like products. We show that managing this price level revision risk is similar to delta hedging in standard option pricing theory. We also find that although revision impact on index trend can be important, the WRS method seems more robust than PCA. However, the trend revision impact order of magnitude for contracts such as total return swaps is low. Finally, revision influence on volatility estimates seems to have a modest impact on derivatives, and according to the robustness of the volatility estimate, the PCA factorial index seems to fare relatively better than the WRS index. Hence, our findings show that the factorial index could better sustain volatility based derivatives. We also show that whatever the index, managing this volatility revision risk is similar to vega hedging in option pricing theory.

'Shopping Around' for Accounting Practices: The Financial Statement Presentation of French Groups

This article illustrates the progressive move away from traditional accounting practices through a study of the presentation of financial statements. Based on a sample of one hundred large French industrial and commercial groups over a ten-year period, and applying a logistic regression method, our survey confirms a trend among French companies, which are increasingly turning their backs on traditional national practices as regards the balance sheet format, the income statement format, the voluntary disclosure of a statement of changes in shareholders' equity and the cash flow statement format. This move towards 'alternative' practices is made possible by the flexibility of French regulation, and can probably be explained by the desire of French firms to attract more investment on international capital markets. However, this trend shows no signs of a clear orientation towards any particular accounting model (IAS, U.S. or U.K.). The behaviour of the French firms observed in our study can be considered as a kind of 'shopping around' for accounting practices.     

Crisis and opportunity: From technological to social change

Despite rapid technological and social change, we continue to play the game by the old rules, exacerbating the global crises and undermining chance and choice for the future. This article calls for new rules: determined and responsible political leadership, an improved social conscience, pluralism in technology, and the acceptance of unemployment as a temporary and creative necessity rather than fighting it by resisting technological innovation. Anticipation and preventive action in confronting the future are better than post facto adjustments or repair.     

Further insights on the puzzle of technical analysis profitability

This paper extends current results concerning technical analysis efficiency on the foreign exchange market and attempts to determine whether filtering the raw exchange rate series with some trading rule significantly changes its characteristics. Because of the non-normality of exchange rate series, bootstrap methods are used on the main daily exchange rates since 1974 to show technical analysis performance. The technical analysis strategy tested generates returns whose distribution is significantly different from the basic series. The robustness of the results is tested in and out-of-sample and an explanation of the technical analysis performance based on its filtering properties is suggested.     

Regime switching affine processes with applications to finance

We introduce the notion of a regime switching affine process. Informally this is a Markov process that behaves conditionally on each regime as an affine process with specific parameters. To facilitate our analysis, specific restrictions are imposed on these parameters. The regime switches are driven by a Markov chain. We prove that the joint process of the Markov chain and the conditionally affine part is a process with an affine structure on an enlarged state space, conditionally on the starting state of the Markov chain. Like for affine processes, the characteristic function can be expressed in a set of ordinary differential equations that can sometimes be solved analytically. This result unifies several semi-analytical solutions found in the literature for pricing derivatives of specific regime switching processes on smaller state spaces. It also provides a unifying theory that allows us to introduce regime switching to the pricing of many derivatives within the broad class of affine processes. Examples include European options and term structure derivatives with stochastic volatility and default. Essentially, whenever there is a pricing solution based on an affine process, we can extend this to a regime switching affine process without sacrificing the analytical tractability of the affine process.     

Termination Fees in Mergers and Acquisitions: Protecting Investors or Managers?

Abstract:  Institutional investors closely monitor termination fees in mergers and acquisitions (M&A). We argue that their magnitude reflects either agency problems or efficiency considerations. Focusing on M&A involving Canadian targets between 1997 and 2004, we assess the determinants and market impact of termination fees. Our findings show that the Thomson's SDC Platinum™ Worldwide Mergers & Acquisitions Database underestimates their extent. Results suggest that termination fees are essentially an efficient mechanism as they are relatively higher in M&A with high merger costs, a cash component and expected operating synergies. Stock market returns surrounding the deal announcement do not differ across levels of relative termination fees.