A Sociology of Expectations: Retrospecting Prospects and Prospecting Retrospects

Future expectations and promises are crucial to providing the dynamism and momentum upon which so many ventures in science and technology depend. This is especially the case for pre-market applications where practical utility and value has yet to be demonstrated and where investment must be mobilised. For instance, clinical biotechnology (including a wide range of genetic therapeutic and engineering applications) has been at the centre of ferocious debates about whether or not promises and expectations will be realized. In some cases, the failure of expectations has severely damaged the reputation and credibility of professions, institutions and industry. The need for a better analytical understanding of the dynamics of expectations in innovation is both necessary and timely. This paper develops the basis for a sociology of expectations, drawing on recent writing within Science and Technology Studies (STS) and case studies of biotechnology innovation. In particular, we offer a model for understanding how expectations will predictably vary according to some key parameters. Such factors include the degree to which technologies and innovation relationships are either relatively established or newly emergent. Expectations will also vary according actors' relative closeness and involvement in knowledge production itself. The paper proceeds by analyzing the way expectations in clinical biotechnology have changed over time. That is, we compare the way the future was once represented with the way it has been represented more recently. The paper concludes by offering a means by which it is possible to map or model the "situatedness of expectations'.     

Cointegration and causal relations in mortgage and capital markets

In years past, credit rationing resulted in the primary mortgage market being segmented from national capital markets. Some research suggests that the deregulation of depository institutions in the early 1980s along with the exponential growth in the secondary mortgage market, has resulted in a primary mortgage market more fully integrated with national capital markets. This study employs Granger Causality to test primary and secondary mortgage market segmentation. Our findings support the conclusion that causality is unidirectional from the treasury market to the primary and secondary mortgage market. The results also indicate that mortgage market speed of adjustment increased significantly by the end of the decade.     

Software to support business teams

Organizations are increasingly using the business team concept to gain competitive advantage. Collaboration support software is gaining acceptance as a viable tool among both researchers and practitioners, and an opportunity exists to investigate the specific needs of teams: users working in longitudinal time frames on a variety of tasks. In this article, team software requirements are first derived from a theoretical perspective: office automation and task literature are used to identify a set of domain-independent individual tasks. Group process literature is then used to develop a set of collaborative tasks composed of these individual task components. These individual and collaborative tasks are aggregated with team task and communication support requirements to develop requirements for an integrated software environment that effectively supports business teams. Design considerations for a comprehensive team support system are outlined, a prototype implementation is described, and project contributions and key future research considerations are summarized.     

How Taxes and Welfare Benefits Affect Work Incentives: A Life‐Cycle Perspective

Personal taxes and benefits affect the incentive to work over the life cycle by altering income–age profiles, insuring against adverse shocks and changing the returns to human capital. In this paper, we show how a life‐cycle perspective alters our impression of how the UK tax and benefit system affects women's work incentives. Given that actual longitudinal data conflate age effects, cohort effects and policy effects, and, in the UK, are not available covering the full life cycle, we use simulated data produced by a rich, dynamic structural model of female labour supply and human capital that incorporates family formation and fertility. We find that individuals experience considerable variability in work incentives across life that outweighs the variability across individuals. Changes in the presence of children and a partner, as well as the level of any partner's earnings, are key to explaining these patterns: work incentives vary dramatically depending on family composition and the earnings of any partner, especially for the lower‐skilled, and most women experience a number of different family types during the course of their lives.