On dichotomous choice contingent valuation data analysis: Semiparametric methods and Genetic Programming

The aim of this paper is twofold. Firstly, we introduce a novel semiparametric technique called Genetic Programming to estimate and explain the willingness to pay to maintain environmental conditions of a specific natural park in Spain. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time in which Genetic Programming is employed in contingent valuation. Secondly, we investigate the existence of bias due to the functional rigidity of the traditional parametric techniques commonly employed in a contingent valuation problem. We applied standard parametric methods (logit and probit) and compared with results obtained using semiparametric methods (a proportional hazard model and a genetic program). The parametric and semiparametric methods give similar results in terms of the variables finally chosen in the model. Therefore, the results confirm the internal validity of our contingent valuation exercise.     

Mycogen as a Case Study in Real Options

This article provides a primer on the use of real options valuation in a strategic agribusiness setting. Using the Mycogen case study as an example, the article provides a qualitative approach to strategic risk management. The article introduces a number of real options such as the option to wait and the option to learn and illustrates how prudent use of these options can give rise to firm value in an agribusiness setting.     

The future of the uplands

Upland areas provide UK society with many important functions, goods and services, but have experienced a number of disturbing trends and face an uncertain future. This paper outlines historic, current and future drivers of environmental, economic, socio-cultural and policy change in UK uplands, and assesses how these have affected or are likely to affect ways in which land is used and the provision of ecosystem services. Information is synthesised into scenarios summarising a range of possible futures anticipated for UK uplands to 2060 and beyond. Finally, innovations in science, technology, governance and policy are evaluated that could enable uplands to continue providing key ecosystem services under a range of scenarios. The paper concludes that many upland areas will need to be prepared for significant reductions in grazing and prescribed burning. Conversely, other areas could experience agricultural intensification, for example significant increases in grazing or an expansion of arable or bioenergy crops into upland valleys, due to anticipated increases in global demand for food and energy. These scenarios will take place in the context of climate change. Many may take place together and may interact with each other, with complex and unpredictable implications for the upland environment, economy and society. In this context, a number of advances are needed in science, technology and policy to maintain viable upland communities and the future provision of ecosystem services. These may include funding for ecological and hydrological restoration via carbon offsetting or other means. It may also involve advances in ecosystem service modelling, mapping and valuation, which through stakeholder participation could facilitate more integrated rural planning. New forms of environmental governance need to be explored that can empower those interested in developing upland economies to maintain thriving upland communities, while managing the ecosystem services they provide as efficiently as possible.     

水务管理信息系统的研究与探讨--以陕西省铜川市王益区水务管理为例

运用系统分析和数据库技术对水务管理信息系统作出了实用的设计,且建立了完整的系统数据库,并把优化与模拟技术相结合,对其供需水量进行优化模拟,实现中小城市水务信息的输入、输出、查询、预测、优化调度等功能,为水资源的管理、利用提供合理、有效的工具。     

Tax incentives for inefficient executive pay and reward for luck

I study the economic consequences of tax deductibility limits on salaries for the design of incentive contracts. The analysis is based on an agency model in which the firm’s cash flow is a function of the agent’s effort and an observable random factor beyond the agent’s control. According to my analysis, limiting the tax deductibility of fixed wages has two consequences. The principal rewards the agent on the basis of the observable random factor and adjusts the amount of performance-based pay in the optimal incentive contract. The new contract can have weaker or stronger work incentives than without the tax. The theoretical findings have implications for empirical compensation research. First, the analysis shows that reward for luck can be the optimal response to recent tax law changes, whereas earlier empirical literature has attributed this phenomenon to managerial entrenchment. Second, I demonstrate that a simple regression analysis that fails to control for separable measures of luck is likely to find an increased pay for performance sensitivity as a response to the introduction of tax deductibility limits on salaries even if the pay for performance sensitivity has actually declined.     

Social exchange: Empirical examination of form and focus

We investigate similarities and differences among prominent types of social exchange (psychological contract fulfillment, perceived organizational support, trust in the organization, leader-member exchange, and trust in the supervisor) and propose that two higher-order factors represent social exchanges with the organization and with the supervisor. We investigate their prediction of important employee work attitudes, citizenship behaviors, and performance. Based on data from 448 employees, empirical tests support the existence of organization- and supervisor-directed social exchanges. Tests using structural equation modeling support unique predictions of attitudinal and behavioral work outcomes.     

Prospects for population distribution by income in regions of the North

This article provides an overview of models for the analysis and prediction of the population distribution in terms of per capita income. On the basis of a two-parameter model of log-normal distribution, a forecast distribution in terms of this indicator of the Russian population in the whole country and in the northern regions was developed.