Rural development interventions — A behavioural perspective

From their review of the literature on rural development, the authors believe that inadequate attention is paid to the behavioural bases of the intervention process and to ways of understanding complex motivational processes within communities. Two models are suggested as tools for categorizing resistances to change and pressures for change in relation to traditional communities, and as a conceptual framework for explaining motivational processes. The first area of intervention draws on Lewin's force‐field analysis model as a means of categorizing pressures for and resistances to change. The second area, that of motivation, uses Vroom's expectancy model to analyse community motivational patterns.     

Asymptotic least-squares estimation efficiency considerations and applications

This paper is concerned with the large sample efficiency of the asymptotic least-squares (ALS) estimators introduced by Gouriéroux, Monfort, and Trognon (1982, 1985) and Chamberlain (1982, 1984). We show how the efficiency of these estimators is affected when additional information is incorporated into the estimation procedure. The relationship between ALS and maximum likelihood is discussed. It is shown that ALS can be used to obtain asymptotically efficient estimates for a large range of econometric models. Many results from the literature on estimation are special cases of the framework adopted in this paper. An application of ALS to a dynamic rational expections factor demand model in the manufacturing sector in The Netherlands demonstrates the potential of the method in the estimation of the parameters in models which are subject to nonlinear cross-equation restrictions.     

The palaeoeconomic history of Aboriginal migration

Aboriginal migration from South East Asia is the beginning of Austrahan economic history. Prehistorians have tended to focus on means to sea travel rather than opportunity and motive to migrate. American and Australian measures of sea depth contours throw new light on possible migration paths and the conditions that might have prompted Aboriginal ancestors to move through island SE Asia to Australia. Interpretation of the data depends on a reconsideration of palaeodemography and the introduction of some economic and historical analysis. Several scenarios suggest possible conditions influencing trends and fluctuations in Aboriginal migration over the past 60,000 years.     

ON INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION AND THE SOCIAL WELFARE FUNCTION

In defining optimum population, economists have used two distinct concepts of the social welfare function: the Millian and the Benthamite. Although analytically the issue of the welfare impact of international migration is closely related to the concept of optimum population, the migration analysis has been based almost exclusively on the Benthamite welfare function. As its point of departure, the present note explores the implications of the alternative Millian welfare function for migration analysis.
An interesting aspect of the results derived from the present exercise is that they are in sharp contradiction with the results based on the Benthamite social welfare function. This highlights the sensitivity of the results to the welfare criteria used and the need for greater caution in policy formulation.     

TAX REFORMS IN EAST ASIAN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: Motivations, directions, and implications

This first presents an overview of the level and structure of taxation in Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. It then briefly reviews the available literature on tax reform, country by country. It finally gives a comparative analysis, focusing primarily on tax mix and tax structure, and the importance attached to tax administration.     

Covered interest parity in non-dollar euromarkets

Zusammenfassung Gedeckte Zinsparit?t auf Nicht-Dollar-Eurom?rkten. —- In diesem Aufsatz werden die Beziehungen zwischen Zinss?tzen und Wechselkursen auf den Eurom?rkten für andere W?hrungen als den U.S.-Dollar untersucht. Dabei zeigt sich, da\ Heteroskedastizit?t ein wichtiges Problem in den Daten ist. Tests, die mit der Heteroskedastizit?t konsistent sind, werden unter Benutzung der Korrektur nach White durchgeführt. Aus diesen Tests ergibt sich, da\ die These von der gedeckten Zinsparit?t abgelehnt werden k?nnte. Doch liegen die beobachteten Abweichungen von der gedeckten Zinsparit?t innerhalb der Grenzen, die sich aus den Transaktionskosten ergeben.

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Résumé Parité d’intérêt couverte en euro-marchés non-dollar. — Les auteurs examinent les relations entre des taux d’intérêt et des taux de change en euro-marchés non-dollar. Ils trouvent que la hétéroscédasticité est un problème significatif regardant les données. Des tests hétéroscédasticité-consistants sont conduits en utilisant la correction de White. Ces tests démontrent que la parité d’intérêt couverte (PIC) pourrait être refusée. Cependant, les auteurs trouvent que les déviations de la PIC observées sont dans des limites déterminées par les frais de transaction.

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Resumen La paridad de tipos de interés con seguro de cambio en los Euromercados alternativos al del dólar. — Se examinan las relaciones entre los tipos de interés y los tipos de cambio en los Euromercados alternativos al del dólar. La muestra presenta problemas de heteroscedasticidad. Se llevan a cabo tests consistentes con la heteroscedasticidad utilizando la corrección de White. Estos tests demuestran que la paridad de tipos de interés con seguro de cambio podría ser rechazada. Las deviaciones observadas, empero, permanecen dentro de los límites impuestos por los costos de transacción.

     

Forecasting with an econometric model: Some recent results using the national institute model

It is widely believed that the large econometric models cannot be used for forecasting without considerable intervention on the part of the forecaster. In this paper we challenge this view by reproducing a number of recent forecasts published by the National Institute but without the ad hoc interventions used at the time. We show that in no case would the forecast, produced by the model used mechanically, have been radically different from that actually published. Further, in an ex-post comparison against actual out-turns, the mechanical model forecast is not obviously dominated by the published version.