Modelling the spatiotemporal distribution of the incidence of resident foreign population

Many European countries have recently experienced a substantial increase in the proportion of immigrants in their populations. The incidence of resident foreigners calculated at a national level does not provide information on the local spatial and temporal distribution of the phenomenon. This information may be of crucial importance for planning local policies. In this article, we suggest a tool for practitioners to provide spatiotemporal maps representing the local distribution of the incidence of resident foreigners in the territory, and changes in spatial trends over time. We illustrate this with Italian data at a municipal level, for the period 2003–2008. To account for spatiotemporal interactions in the data, we propose using a generalized additive model incorporating a smoother of the time and space dimensions. Specifically, we set up a tensor product smoother combining a cubic regression spline basis for time and a soap film spline basis for space. This approach provides a consistent framework to produce spatiotemporal maps which could be effectively used by policy makers to decide the allocation of economic resources at a local level.     

When do Non‐Family CEOs Outperform in Family Firms? Agency and Behavioural Agency Perspectives

Family firms represent a globally dominant form of organization, yet they confront a steep challenge of finding and managing competent leaders. Sometimes, these leaders cannot be found within the owning family. To date we know little about the governance contexts under which non‐family leaders thrive or founder. Guided by concepts from agency theory and behavioural agency theory, we examine the conditions of ownership and leadership that promote superior performance among non‐family CEOs of family firms. Our analysis of 893 Italian family firms demonstrates that these leaders outperform when they are monitored by multiple major family owners as opposed to a single owner; they also outperform when they are not required to share power with co‐CEOs who are family members, and who may be motivated by parochial family socioemotional priorities.     

Accelerated radical innovation: Theory and application

Radical innovation has been responsible for some of society's greatest advances over the past hundred years in fields as diverse as transportation, power, information technology, and medicine. But as scholars have found, it is such a long-term, chaotic, meandering, unpredictable process that promising radical innovation concepts are often never undertaken, to society's detriment. Does it need to be this way? Or can radical innovation be accelerated so that it is manageable within modern society's economic and political time horizon? This question prompted the organization of the Accelerated Radical Innovation (ARI) project five years ago. In this paper we summarize the ARI methodology as it currently stands and then report the results of an empirical verification with a radical medical innovation project that is currently under way — monochromatic X-rays for cancer diagnosis and treatment. Several conclusions were drawn. First, by and large, the ARI model tracked closely with the reality of this innovation, offering confirmation of its grounding in the real world of innovation. Second, the model offered a rationale and framework for this innovation process that could be more widely adopted. Third, the ARI model exposed critical issues whose early resolution could have accelerating the innovation cycle. Fourth, the application of a core principle of ARI, Systematic Competitive Intelligence, could have provided early warning on a competing technology that emerged suddenly. Last, the use of another core ARI concept, accelerated innovation prototyping, might help the innovator overcome the key barrier facing the innovation — the necessity of a long, expensive, high-risk clinical trial. Overall, the verification study confirms the potential of the ARI model to put the radical innovation process on a faster, lower-cost, better-managed track.     

Price Cycles and Asymmetric Price Transmission in the U.S. Pork Market

Economists have proposed several plausible explanations for observed price transmission asymmetries in commodity markets. Unfortunately, the econometric methods commonly used in such studies cannot empirically distinguish pricing behavior under the competing theories. We argue that the theories may be classified by firm responses to high- and low-frequency price cycles and use Engle's band spectrum regression to test the symmetry of high- and low-frequency cycles in weekly pork prices. The findings indicate that changes in wholesale prices are asymmetrically transmitted to retail prices in relatively low-frequency cycles, which does not support search costs and other high-frequency explanations. Conversely, wholesale pork prices asymmetrically adjust to changes in farm prices at all frequencies.     

An Evaluation of Inertia Models of Unemployment

Two approaches have been used to model unemployment. The first, conventional, approach involves linking the unemployment outcome to observed indices of productivity, structural factors and discrimination such as educational attainment, location and birthplace. The second approach, the inertia model, involves using a person's labour market history as a way of including in unemployment models information on the 'unobservables' that influence employability. This paper evaluates the performance of both models of unemployment. The results provide unambiguous support for the inertia model when modelling unemployment. The inertia model has higher explanatory power, higher within-sample prediction rate success and fewer out-of-sample forecasting errors than the conventional model. The estimates from the inertia model can be used to provide quite accurate predictions of the risk of becoming unemployed. This is important if individuals at high risk of becoming unemployed are to be targeted for labour market assistance.     

Decoupled Farm Payments and Expectations for Base Updating

The degree to which U.S. farm programs are decoupled from production has been a central issue in recent trade disputes. Several authors have suggested producer expectations for base acreage and yield updating in future farm bills create an incentive to alter planting and input decisions. This article reports analysis of the subjective expectations of producers for base updating and an analysis of the effect these expectations have on producer willingness to accept a buyout of the right to update. On average, producers think the chances of updating in the next farm bill are about 40%, but less than 17% indicate adjusting acreage or yields in anticipation of updating.     

Performance deviations and acquisition premiums: The impact of CEO celebrity on managerial risk‐taking

Research summary: This article draws on identity control theory and a study of acquisition premiums to explore how CEO celebrity status and financial performance relative to aspirations affect firm risk behavior. The study finds that celebrity CEOs tend to pay smaller premiums for target firms, but these tendencies change when prior firm performance deviates from the industry average returns, thereby leading these CEOs to pay higher premiums. The study also finds that the premiums tend to be even larger when celebrity CEOs have more recently attained celebrity status. Taken together, these findings contribute to identity control theory and CEO celebrity literatures by suggesting that celebrity status is a double‐edged sword and that the internalization of celebrity status by CEOs strongly influences the decision‐making of CEOs. Managerial summary: The purpose of this article is to examine how CEO celebrity status and financial performance relative to aspirations affect the size of acquisition premiums. The study finds that celebrity CEOs tend to pay smaller premiums for target firms. However, when celebrity CEOs' prior firm performance is either better or worse than the industry average, these CEOs pay higher premiums. This situation is exacerbated when the CEO has only recently been crowned a celebrity. In effect, these CEOs feel great pressure to match the inflated performance expectations that come with celebrity status. These findings suggest that being a celebrity is a double‐edged sword. The implication here is that CEOs who have recently been crowned a celebrity should be aware of these pressures and cope accordingly. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of Motor Carriers’ Growth or Contraction on Safety: A Multiyear Panel Analysis

Motor carrier safety remains a highly relevant issue for supply chain managers and scholars because carriers’ safety affects supply chains as well as the welfare of the motoring public. This article enriches understanding regarding this topic by investigating how motor carriers’ growth or contraction since the start of the Compliance, Safety, and Accountability (CSA) program in 2010 affects their safety performance. Drawing on core principles from theories regarding internal adjustment costs from economics and nonscale free capabilities from management, we explain why carriers’ growth or contraction should differentially affect various safety metrics tracked by the CSA program. To test our theory, we assemble a multiyear panel data set for over 1,000 of the largest for‐hire motor carriers operating in the United States by melding together several different governmental data sources. We fit a series of multivariate seemingly unrelated regression models to test our hypothesized effects. Our results corroborate our theorized predictions and are robust to alternative model specifications. We conclude by detailing how this work contributes to extant theory, summarizing managerial and policy implications, highlighting limitations, and suggesting directions for further pursuit.