An application of rule-based forecasting to a situation lacking domain knowledge

Rule-based forecasting (RBF) uses rules to combine forecasts from simple extrapolation methods. Weights for combining the rules use statistical and domain-based features of time series. RBF was originally developed, tested, and validated only on annual data. For the M3-Competition, three major modifications were made to RBF. First, due to the absence of much in the way of domain knowledge, we prepared the forecasts under the assumption that no domain knowledge was available. This removes what we believe is one of RBF’s primary advantages. We had to re-calibrate some of the rules relating to causal forces to allow for this lack of domain knowledge. Second, automatic identification procedures were used for six time-series features that had previously been identified using judgment. This was done to reduce cost and improve reliability. Third, we simplified the rule-base by removing one method from the four that were used in the original implementation. Although this resulted in some loss in accuracy, it reduced the number of rules in the rule-base from 99 to 64. This version of RBF still benefits from the use of prior findings on extrapolation, so we expected that it would be substantially more accurate than the random walk and somewhat more accurate than equal weights combining. Because most of the previous work on RBF was done using annual data, we especially expected it to perform well with annual data.     

Knowledge complementarity,knowledge absorption effectiveness,and new product performance: The exploration of international joint ventures in China

Firms use international joint ventures (IJVs) to access and learn from partners’ knowledge and thus enhance their new product performance, especially when the partners have complementary knowledge bases. Most of the existing literature assumes that knowledge complementarity can directly lead to enhanced new product performance, while ignoring the mediating role of knowledge absorption effectiveness and moderating effects of organizational structure and organizational culture to integrate and manage knowledge complementarity. Using dyadic data from 119 IJVs in China, this article suggests that knowledge complementarity influences IJV new product performance through the full mediation of knowledge absorption effectiveness. Also, the results suggest that an IJV's departmentalization of organizational structure significantly hurts the effect of knowledge complementarity on knowledge absorption effectiveness, while a strong learning culture of the IJV can significantly enhance such effects.     

Bayesian Graphical Models for STructural Vector Autoregressive Processes

This paper proposes a Bayesian, graph‐based approach to identification in vector autoregressive (VAR) models. In our Bayesian graphical VAR (BGVAR) model, the contemporaneous and temporal causal structures of the structural VAR model are represented by two different graphs. We also provide an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate jointly the two causal structures and the parameters of the reduced‐form VAR model. The BGVAR approach is shown to be quite effective in dealing with model identification and selection in multivariate time series of moderate dimension, as those considered in the economic literature. In the macroeconomic application the BGVAR identifies the relevant structural relationships among 20 US economic variables, thus providing a useful tool for policy analysis. The financial application contributes to the recent econometric literature on financial interconnectedness. The BGVAR approach provides evidence of a strong unidirectional linkage from financial to non‐financial super‐sectors during the 2007–2009 financial crisis and a strong bidirectional linkage between the two sectors during the 2010–2013 European sovereign debt crisis. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Arjo Klamer,Conversations with Economists: New Classical Economists and Opponents Speak Out on the Current Controversy in Macroeconomics.

The impotency of fiscal policy resulting from budget deficits is called into question. Empirical observation is used to separate the underlying mechanism of the economy from the “intellectual toys and games” that constitute much of macroeconomics theory today.     

Economic Issues in the Antitrust Assessment of Hospital Competition: Overview

Rapid consolidation in the hospital industry, as health care markets respond to consumer pressures for more cost-effective delivery of health care services, has focused increased attention on antitrust enforcement theories and actions. This paper reviews the Federal agency challenges of four recent hospital mergers that have all been denied by the courts, but for varying reasons. Questions raised include the appropriate definition of the product and geographic markets, the extent of realizable merger-specific efficiencies and the influence of non-profit status on hospital behavior. The lack of conclusive empirical economic evidence on these topics undoubtedly contributes to the current divergence of opinion among regulators, courts and hospitals. This paper also identifies how each of the subsequent papers in this special issue contributes valuable findings to inform the lively debate.     

When Crises Hit Home: How U.S. Higher Education Leaders Navigate Values During Uncertain Times

Journal of Business Ethics - Against the backdrop of a global pandemic, this study investigates how U.S. higher education leaders have centered their crisis management on values and guiding ethical...     

Marginal places and tourism: the role of Buddhist centers in Italy

Religious tourism in Italy has always been an attractor at an international level. For many centuries, it has been entirely represented by the Christian pilgrimage to St. Peter’s Basilica. In recent decades, however, the religious scenery has changed deeply, and now includes even non-Christian religions and spiritualities. In this paper we compare two (very different) Buddhist centers, both located in places of Italy where tourism is not (or is no more) a significant component of the local economy. Buddhist centers are increasingly becoming popular tourist attraction: our purpose is to investigate to what extent and under which conditions they can be actors of local tourism development. The most significant of these conditions seems to be the nature of the center itself, ranging from a hermitage relatively unconcerned about any quantitative development, to a structure where spiritual ends are reconciled both with expansion and with economic integration within the local community.     

麦肯锡调查：当今的企业如何对一线进行管理

大多数企业并未对一线管理人员提供足够的培训，或者对其职责进行恰当的定位，以创造最大价值。令该问题雪上加霜的是，高层领导常常意识不到妨碍一线绩效提高的问题。而拥有得力的一线管理人员的企业则采取与之不同的做法。