Nowcasting the French index of industrial production: A comparison from bridge and factor models

Governments and central banks need to have an accurate and timely assessment of indicators for the current month, as this is essential for providing a reliable and early analysis of the current economic situation. The index of industrial production (IIP) is probably the most important and widely analyzed monthly indicator, given the relevance of the manufacturing activity as a driver of the whole business cycle. This paper presents a series of models conceived to forecast the current French monthly IIP, based on regression models and dynamic factor models. The combination of these two approaches allows selecting economically relevant explanatory variables among a large data set. In addition, a rolling forecast study is carried out to assess the forecasting performance of the estimated models, using predictive ability and model confidence set tests. This latter allows getting several models displaying equivalent forecasting performance and therefore gives robustness to the forecasting exercise rather than to base the forecasting analysis only on one model.     

Romanians,Hungarians and their wages,in transition,in Romania

Legally binding treaties or memorandums have been used over time to regulate the issue of national borders of many European countries. As a result, relatively large groups of people have become ethnic minorities in other countries. They may conserve their ethnic identities, and therefore their children may accumulate ethnic human capital (e.g., language, culture, and religion) in addition to the general human capital of the country. Therefore, they can get access to an appropriate occupation linked by tradition or other factors to their ethnic group. This paper uses estimates from a selection model with an endogenous switch among three broad types of occupational groups to analyze the composition of the wage gap between Romanians and ethnic Hungarians in Romania before and during the transition from a planned to a market economy. The results suggest that the institutional settings of the controlled economy allowed Romanians to work in occupations that gave them the best returns, while the changes during the transition years allowed ethnic Hungarians to work in occupations that gave them the best returns.     

Asymmetry, realised volatility and stock return risk estimates

In this paper we estimate minimum capital risk requirements for short and long positions with three investment horizons, using the traditional GARCH model and two other GARCH-type models that incorporate the possibility of asymmetric responses of volatility to price changes. We also address the problem of the extremely high estimated persistence of the GARCH model to generate observed volatility patterns by including realised volatility as an explanatory variable into the model??s variance equation. The results suggest that the inclusion of realised volatility improves the GARCH forecastability as well as its ability to calculate accurate minimum capital risk requirements and makes it quite competitive when compared with asymmetric conditional heteroscedastic models such as the GJR and the EGARCH.     

Floor-level premiums in private housing: the case of condominiums in Singapore

Using a sample consists of 3367 actual condominium sales transacted in resale market from May 2012 to April 2015 from the Singapore Urban and Redevelopment Authority, a hedonic pricing model is used to investigate for the presence of floor-level premiums in the private housing market, condominium, in District 23 of Singapore. Unit size, types of land tenure and the distance to the nearest mass rapid transit (MRT) station are also used as other independent variables. The estimated coefficient of each of these independent variables is statistically significant. Each of these independent variables also has positive estimated coefficient, suggesting that they have positive effects on condominium resale prices. Main findings are (a) there is a presence of floor-level premium; (b) the condominiums with a distance more than 400 m to the MRT station get higher resale prices; and (c) there is an increasing effect of floor level on condominium price.     

The effects of risk aversion on life insurance ownership of single-parent households

This study investigates the effect of risk aversion of single-parent households with at least one child under 18 on life insurance ownership. Analysing the 1992–2013 Survey of Consumer Finances datasets, we found that the likelihood of owning term life insurance decreases as risk aversion increases, but the likelihood of owning cash-value life insurance increases as risk aversion increases. Smokers were less likely to own term life insurance but more likely to own cash-value life insurance than comparable non-smokers.     

Economic modelling of costs associated with outcomes reported for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients in the CANVAS and EMPA-REG cardiovascular outcomes trials

Aims: To model direct medical costs associated with reductions in cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in T2DM patients reported in the CANVAS and EMPA-REG trials, which assessed the cardiovascular safety of canagliflozin and empagliflozin, respectively.

Materials and methods: Costs were modeled from a US managed care organization (MCO) perspective for the CVD outcomes included in both trials: three-point major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) and its components (cardiovascular-related death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke), as well as heart failure requiring hospitalization. The rate of CVD events averted (difference between study drug and placebo) was projected to the portion of an MCO T2DM population matching the respective trial’s inclusion criteria. A targeted literature search for paid amounts directly associated with each CVD event provided the unit costs, which were applied to the projected number of events averted, to calculate costs avoided per member per year (PMPY). One-way sensitivity analyses were performed on events averted, unit costs, and percentages of trial-applicable patients.

Results: Based on three-point MACE events averted, costs avoided PMPY of $6.17 (range: $1.27–$10.94) for CANVAS and $2.75 ($0.19–$4.83) for EMPA-REG were estimated. Costs avoided for individual components of MACE ranged from $0.77 to $3.84 PMPY for CANVAS and from -$0.97 (additional costs) to $1.54 for EMPA-REG. PMPY costs avoided for heart failure were $2.72 for CANVAS and $1.32 for EMPA-REG.

Limitations and conclusions: Models assumed independent, non-recurrent outcomes and were restricted to medical costs directly associated with the trial-reported events. The reductions in CVD events in T2DM patients reported for both CANVAS and EMPA-REG project to a positive cost avoidance for these events in an MCO population. The analysis did not include an assessment of the impact on total cost, as the costs associated with adverse events, drug utilization or other clinical outcomes were not examined.     

Cost-effectiveness of second-line atezolizumab in Canada for advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC)

Aim: To assess the cost-effectiveness in Canada of atezolizumab compared with docetaxel or nivolumab for the treatment of advanced NSCLC after first-line platinum-doublet chemotherapy.

Materials and methods: A three-state partitioned-survival model was developed. Clinical inputs were obtained from the phase III OAK trial comparing atezolizumab with docetaxel in patients with advanced NSCLC who progressed after first-line platinum-doublet chemotherapy. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were extrapolated beyond the trial period using parametric models. A cure model assuming a 1% cure fraction was fitted to the OS data for atezolizumab. Outcomes for nivolumab were informed by a network meta-analysis (NMA) vs atezolizumab. Resource use and costs were informed by clinical expert opinion and published Canadian sources. Utility values were obtained from the OAK trial. The perspective of the analysis was that of the Canadian publicly-funded healthcare system. The base case time horizon was 10?years, and the discount rate was 1.5% annually for both costs and effects. Scenario analyses were performed to test the robustness of the results and all analyses were performed probabilistically.

Results: Atezolizumab demonstrated a quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gain of 0.60 compared with docetaxel at an incremental cost of $85,073, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $142,074/QALY. Atezolizumab dominated nivolumab (regardless of dosing regimen), based on modest differences in both QALYs and costs. Docetaxel was most likely to be cost effective at willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds below $125,000/QALY gained, while atezolizumab was most likely to be cost effective beyond this WTP threshold. In most scenario analyses, the results remained robust to changes in parameters. A reduced time horizon and alternative approaches to the NMA had the greatest impact on cost-effectiveness results.

Conclusion: Atezolizumab represents a cost-effective therapeutic option in Canada for the treatment of patients with advanced NSCLC who progress after first-line platinum doublet chemotherapy.     

How resilient is La Réunion in terms of international tourism attractiveness: an assessment from unit root tests with structural breaks from 1981-2015

Even if local policymakers increasingly claim that tourism is one of the key factors of future economic development for the French small island La Réunion, international tourist arrivals are observed to be locked in a stagnation phase since the beginning of the 2000s. Starting from this stylized fact, this article aims to study if this phenomenon results from major external events hurting this economy regularly. Next, by using univariate unit root procedures with structural breaks, we test for evidence of permanent or transitory effects of external shocks on international tourist inflows (total, by source markets, and by category) over the period 1981–2015. Finally, the empirical analysis allows us to reject the null of a unit root. Then, stagnation of tourism arrivals to La Réunion is not due to exogenous shocks but probably results from endogenous impediments within the domestic tourism industry and unsuitable public policies.     

Transmission of CSR requirements in supply chains: investigating the multiple mediating effects of CSR activities in SMEs

In recent years, scholars have increasingly turned their attention to the separate areas of corporate social responsibility (CSR) and supply chain management (SCM). However, little scholarly attention has been paid to the transmission of CSR requirements from a small to medium-sized enterprises (SME) perspective. Drawing on institutional and innovation diffusion theories, this paper investigates to what extent the CSR requirements of customers influence the CSR activities of SMEs and their CSR requirements toward their own suppliers. Multiple mediation analysis was performed on data from a sample of 146,060 French SMEs. The findings indicate that the CSR requirements of customers have a direct negative effect on SMEs’ CSR requirements toward suppliers. However, the relationship becomes positive when we take into account the mediating role of the SMEs’ own CSR activities (i.e. economic, social and environmental activities). Furthermore, the study reveals that the indirect effect through economic CSR activities is the greatest, followed by social and then environmental CSR activities. Our main contribution is that implementing CSR activities within SMEs is a necessary step so that SMEs can be brokers in the transmission of CSR requirements in the supply chain.