Sources of Growth and Structural Change in the Vietnamese Economy, 1996–2003: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis*

We use the MONASH‐VN model, a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the Vietnamese economy, to investigate Vietnam's rapid growth and structural change over the period 1996 to 2003. We do this in two steps. First, we estimate changes in variables representing production technologies, consumer preferences, government policy and other structural features of the economy. Movements in these structural and policy variables are then used to explain the recent history of Vietnam's rapid growth and structural change. We find the most important sources of growth and change to be technical improvements, favorable shifts in foreign demand for Vietnamese goods and employment growth. Other important factors include movement in household preferences away from primary products and towards manufactures and services, expansion in agricultural land supply, and tax reform.     

Spatial price premium transmission for Meat Standards Australia‐graded cattle: the vulnerability of price premiums to outside shocks

Studies of market integration show that price changes are transmitted spatially through arbitrage. Transmission across differentiated agricultural products is important to investigate, but it has not been explored given its complexities for assessment. Using data from Australian cattle markets, we examine the dynamics of Meat Standards Australia price premium transmission between states. An impulse response function analysis using Bayesian vector autoregression with sign restriction identification shows that shocks to prices and price premiums are partially transmitted contemporaneously between markets and it takes several weeks to complete transmission. In addition, we find an asymmetry of price and price premium shocks originating in Southern Queensland that have an inverse immediate impact in New South Wales, and take months to transmit the usual price response. This outcome may be explained by differences in cattle availability in each state, which can be related to forage availability due to weather conditions. Based on these results, producers can forecast fluctuations on price premiums and adjust their cattle supply accordingly.     

Revealing global hot spots of technological disasters: 1900–2013

Technological disasters can happen in any country in the world and cause human fatalities, injuries, and economic damages, among other physical and social consequences. As the world adopts more technologies, becomes further industrialized, continues faster urbanization, and has larger and more concentrated population, the occurrences and impacts of technological disasters are likely to be more frequent and severe and call for more scholarly research. However, there is a lack of good models for reliable technological risk analysis, which is the foundation for effective preparation for, sound mitigation of, and quick recovery from technological disasters. This research develops an expected risk analysis model, including a base sub-model and a location quotient sub-model, for nearly 200 countries of the world, using the technological disasters recorded in the EM-DAT database for the period 1900–2013. The sub-models are based on country-level risk impacts in terms of expected fatalities, injuries, people affected, and economic losses, their standard deviations, ranges, and corresponding country percentages and ranks. The sub-models are validated using correlations and scatter plots for the observed and expected risk impacts. The results show that the sub-models perform well by yielding consistent expected risks and related measures, indicating that the expected risk analysis model is a reasonably good alternative to existing risk analysis models.     

The Adequacy of Pre‐purchase Due Diligence in Independent Small Business and Franchising

This research reports an in‐depth study of the due diligence activities that prospective independent small business operators and franchisees in Australia undertake prior to purchasing or starting up their businesses. Although academic literature and industry publications promote undertaking ‘proper due diligence’, there is a lack of empirical research into the nature of due diligence and its effect on business outcomes. Using a qualitative approach, 60 currently and formerly operating independents and franchisees were personally interviewed, exploring the diversity of approaches to undertaking due diligence prior to entering business. The research revealed that differences occur in both the type and amount of due diligence undertaken by independents and franchisees and highlighted further differences between current and former operators. In general, the due diligence undertaken by participants was relatively unsophisticated with few exceptions of rigour and planning. Where prospective independents and franchisees were entering business for the first time, their appreciation of business was naïve. A steep learning curve followed during which they often recognised flaws in their initial research. As a result of this qualitative in‐depth research, we present a set of propositions regarding due diligence and a model for future testing on a large sample.     

The Impact of Decentralized Data Entry on the Quality of Household Survey Data in Developing Countries: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment in Vietnam

Computers were provided to randomly selected districts participatingin a household survey in Vietnam to assess the impact on dataquality of entering data within a day or two of completing theinterview rather than several weeks later in the provincialcapital. Provision of computers had no significant effect onthe observed distribution of household expenditures and thusno effect on measured poverty. Provision of computers reducedthe mean number of errors per household by 5–23 percent,depending on the type of error. Given the already low rate oferrors in the survey, however, the goal of increasing the precisionof the estimated mean of a typical variable can be achievedat a much lower cost by slightly increasing the sample size.Provision of additional computers did substantially reduce thetime interviewers spent adding up and checking the data in thefield, with the value of the time saved close to the cost ofpurchasing desktop computers.     

Revisiting asset pricing under habit formation in an overlapping-generations economy

By incorporating habit formation into an overlapping-generations economy, we show that the middle-aged consumers’ savings decision has a substantial impact on the equity premium. The higher incentive for savings for the middle-aged, resulting from the habit formation preference, causes an even higher demand for bonds and a lower demand for equity, which eventually generates a lower risk-free rate and a higher required return for holding equity than does the framework of non-habit forming models. Calibration results verify that the habit formation setting, together with an OLG framework is capable of yielding lower bond returns and higher equity returns than the standard CRRA utility models, and the borrowing constraint imposed on the young-aged consumers amplifies the positive effect of habit formation on the equity premium. The findings imply that habit formation preferences within the overlapping-generations framework under the borrowing-constrained economy can provide a more improved explanation of the equity premium puzzle.     

Effects of corporate tax reform on optimum debt maturity

This study investigates effects of selecting maturity years on investment decisions. Ceteris paribus an optimum debt maturity (ODM) maximising net present value exists and its change correlates positively with corporate tax rates but negatively with real interest rates, while its relationship with inflation rate is conditional. Furthermore depreciation does not matter at all. A model simulation carried out for seven selected EU countries demonstrates the most significant role of real interest rate for determining ODM in the period of 1981–2004. Yet corporate tax rate will gain in importance since interest and inflation rates are more rapidly converging in the EMU.     

Does poverty lead to non-fatal unintentional injuries in rural Vietnam?

The aim of this study was to identify associations between poverty at the household level and unintentional injury morbidity. A cohort consisting of 24,874 person-time episodes, representing 24,776 people living in 5,801 households (classified into rich, middle income and poor by local authorities in 1999) was followed during 2000, in order to identify and assess non-fatal unintentional injuries. Incidence rate ratios were calculated using a Poisson regression model. The results showed that poverty was a risk factor for unintentional injuries generally. When looking at different types of injury, poverty was a risk for home, work and "other" injuries, protective for school injuries, while the risk of traffic injuries was not affected. The results also showed that communes in mountainous areas were at higher risk for home, work and other injuries. Overall, poverty was associated with unintentional injury morbidity. However, the relationship varied by sex, age and type of injury. Specifically, poverty increased the risk for children and elderly people being injured at home, and for adults (15-59 years) being affected by work injuries.     

Social capital and loan repayment performance in Northern Vietnam

This study analyses the effects of social capital on the loan repayment behavior of borrowers in Vietnam. In the context of agricultural economics, an innovative data collection approach is used that originates from the field of sociology. A personal network survey is carried out to measure the individual social capital of borrowers. Social capital variables are defined according to tie strength (bonding/bridging) and social distance (linking) between the respondent and his/her network member. Social capital has a significant and positive influence on the rescheduling of loans. However, we find no significant evidence for an effect of social capital on late payment of principal or interest.