Valuing high altitude spruce-fir forest improvements: importance of forest condition and recreation activity

High altitude spruce fir forests are typical around the world and are often subjected to multiple forms of recreational use. In this paper, we use household and recreation group data for a spruce fir forest high in the Appalachian Mountains of the U. S. to evaluate the benefits from forest protection (i. e., from improving the forest condition). Our benefits estimation procedures use the referendum-type, contingent valuation (CV) approach of Cameron (1988). We modify the usual practice of obtaining a single willingness-to-pay (WTP) value by using alternative questionnaire scenarios and conducting tests to examine i) household and recreation group value sensitivity to forest condition, and ii) recreation group differences in WTP for forest protection. A first sample of southeastern U. S. households was asked to value a forest protection program for a spruce-fir forest showing no impact from insect disturbance or atmospheric deposition. The second sample was asked to value a protection program for a forest already experiencing impact from insect infestation and air pollution. Logit analysis of the two samples revealed no statistically significant difference in household WTP between the two forest protection programs. Further analysis indicated that consumptive forest users (i. e., hunters and anglers) held forest protection values that were sensitive to a change forest condition, while nonconsumptive forest users (i. e., campers and hikers) held values that were insensitive to the same condition change. Recreation group comparisons revealed that consumptive forest users also held lower values for forest protection than nonconsumptive recreationists. These results demonstrate the importance of estimating public values for forest protection in terms of heterogeneous groups rather than as a homogeneous whole.     

China Adopts EVA: An Essential Step in the Great Leap Forward*

At the start of 2010, the Central SASAC initiated a three‐year “Performance Assessment Policy” that has the potential to transform Chinese business practices. Since 2010, return on capital has been a major criterion in the performance evaluation and compensation of the senior managements of the 100 largest Chinese state‐owned enterprises. Although sales growth will still count for 60% of executive assessment, 40% will be determined by a simplified version of EVA, or Economic Value Added. The guiding principle behind the new policy is simple and straightforward: Executives of state‐owned enterprises are now being asked to manage capital more efficiently than they have in the past—and in much the same way that private enterprises are now expected to do. Observers might be inclined to downplay this change. The assessed cost for capital, at 5.5%, is well below the market's required rate of return. And SASAC may not allow the firms to close plants, make positions redundant, and lay off employees. Veteran managers may try to outlive the interest in EVA, expecting SASAC's new standards to be unenforced. But SASAC's leaders expect a few pioneering companies to take the framework farther than the guidelines demand. To the extent they succeed in creating value for their shareholders, these companies could help bring about important change at many other Chinese companies.     

Gibbs posterior inference on value-at-risk

ABSTRACT

Accurate estimation of value-at-risk (VaR) and assessment of associated uncertainty is crucial for both insurers and regulators, particularly in Europe. Existing approaches link data and VaR indirectly by first linking data to the parameter of a probability model, and then expressing VaR as a function of that parameter. This indirect approach exposes the insurer to model misspecification bias or estimation inefficiency, depending on whether the parameter is finite- or infinite-dimensional. In this paper, we link data and VaR directly via what we call a discrepancy function, and this leads naturally to a Gibbs posterior distribution for VaR that does not suffer from the aforementioned biases and inefficiencies. Asymptotic consistency and root-n concentration rate of the Gibbs posterior are established, and simulations highlight its superior finite-sample performance compared to other approaches.     

Why are African commodity exchanges languishing? A case study of the Zambian Agricultural Commodity Exchange

Food price volatility and high transactions costs remain major problems in African food markets. These persistent problems provide a strong theoretical justification for the development of commodity exchanges. However, the majority of African commodity exchanges remain underdeveloped. Through a case study of the Zambian Agricultural Commodity Exchange (ZAMACE), this article explores why agricultural commodity exchanges in the region have thus far failed to develop into sustainable trading platforms and identifies the most important changes needed to enhance their performance.     

Election predictions as martingales: an arbitrage approach

The more volatile the prediction the closer to an even call     

Reducing High Public Debt Ratios: Lessons from UK Experience*

This paper examines contrasting experiences of the United Kingdom in addressing high public debt to GDP ratios following major wars. A clear message is that interest rate / growth rate differentials were more important than primary budget surpluses for the different outcomes. The debt to GDP ratio fell very rapidly under financial repression following the Second World War but remained stubbornly high despite large budget surpluses with price deflation after the First World War. Implications for policymakers today are that averting price deflation is a high priority and that supply‐side policies that raise growth could play an important part in debt reduction.     

‘Swift Rail’—funding local rail transit through smarter growth

Many medium-size cities suffer from severe traffic congestion and poor accessibility, limiting their potential to improve their economy, environment, and social equity. These problems could be addressed by creating high-quality transit linking such cities with suburban and other catchment areas through use of existing rail lines and abandoned former railway alignments. This concept, termed ‘Swift Rail’, would call for an innovative approach to local railway and transport development.     

The effects of monetary policy changes on market interest rates in Greece: An event study approach

The operational procedures of the Bank of Greece underwent major changes during the 1990s. These shifts in operational strategy made interest rates the main tool of monetary policy for the first time in Greece. This paper examines the effects of changes in the bank's operational interest rates on market interest rates at eight maturities and for different operational regimes. A major feature of our study is the application of the event study methodology used in finance, which has not been employed in any previous study on this subject. We find that changes in official interest rates had a significant influence on short-term and intermediate-term rates and that this relationship was affected by the changes in the bank's operational procedure.     

全球化与WTO：利益分析及争端解决

一、引言“全球化”这一说法是最近才开始流行的,而我们这些贸易经济学家对它的研究历史却有几十年甚至上百年了;世界贸易组织(WTO)也是最近才成立的,而国际贸易方面的法律专家对它和它的前身--GATT的研究也已近五十年了。在前面的两种情况中,国际贸易方面的专家都会强调世界经