An Experimental Study of Statistical Discrimination by Employers

This article reports findings of an experiment motivated by a dynamic labor market model that considers the problem faced by employers in making hiring decisions between workers of different types. The question examined here is how quickly employers learn about the ability of a group of workers through observing representatives of that group. If prior opinions are weak, the employer will use Information from the workplace to quickly update any incorrect group-based stereotypes it may have. On the other hand, if priors are heavily weighted, incorrect initial perceptions will result in persistent wage differences. Our experimental findings are twofold. First, subjects' (employers') behavior moves quickly toward optimal choices. Second, strong priors are hard to establish. These results suggest that it would take a long time for employers to form group-based stereotypes and that such stereotypes should go away quickly in response to signals that contradict these stereotypes.     

The European economy at the cross roads: Structural reforms, fiscal constraints, and the Lisbon Agenda

This paper studies the incentives to sustain and extend a monetary union under alternative assumptions about the extent of market reform within the union and accession countries. Lack of labour mobility, or wage/price flexibility, or fiscal reform, brings costs for both new entrants and in the existing union. Countries will therefore want a union where there has been sufficient reform, and also one where markets are more flexible than their own. But existing members will want the same properties of their partners. Fiscal restrictions may exaggerate this incentive mismatch and could therefore delay the necessary reforms. Similarly, too large costs up front may also delay those reforms.     

Budgetary Consolidation in Europe: Quality, Economic Conditions, and Persistence

In this article we study the importance of the quality of fiscal adjustments and macroeconomic conditions for the persistence of budgetary consolidations. In contrast to previous work in this area, we do not arbitrarily predefine a measure of persistence to evaluate consolidation “success.” By employing duration analysis techniques, the length of a consolidation spell is rather determined endogenously. Our results based on a sample of industrialised OECD countries show that “consolidation fatigue” and the quality of fiscal consolidations are indeed important determinants of their longevity. Moreover, high debt–GDP ratio and fiscal tightening in other OECD countries raise the likelihood of consolidations to persist. Applying our results to European countries in the 1990s provides only weak evidence suggesting that the Maastricht process contributed much to the fiscal consolidations observed in Europe during the 1990s. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2002, 16(4), pp. 512–535. ZEI, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana; and CEPR; Strathclyde University, Glasgow, Scotland; and CEPR; and ECB, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt a.M., Germany; and ZEI. © 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E61, E62, E65.     

AT THE CROSSROADS: THE LIFE INSURANCE INDUSTRY AND FINANCIAL SERVICES REFORM

Abstract: In September of 1996, The Board of Directors of the American Council of Life Insurance ("ACLI")reversed decades of policy and embraced for the first time the concept of reciprocal ownership or "affiliations" between life insurance companies and commercial banks. Under this new policy mandate, the ACLI is advocating federal legislation that would permit banks to sell all types of insurance and control insurance underwriters through separate affiliates or subsidiaries. In return, 1) insurers would have the authority to acquire banks; 2) the insurance activities of banks would be fully subject to state insurance regulation; and 3) federal bank regulators would be precluded from preempting state regulatory authority.
This article reviews the various factors that precipitated this watershed policy decision, discusses the structural and regulatory issues that are important to life insurers, and speculates briefly on the prospects for financial services legislation.     

government and the PSBR

The government has changed its view of how to gauge the size of the budget deficit. Nick Parsons and David Coleman, of Union Discount, argue that this change is an ill-omen for the control of public spending.