The diary of a charity donor: an exploration of research information from the Royal Mail Consumer Panel and Mail Characteristics Survey

This paper looks at direct mail in the United Kingdom across all market sectors and in detail at the charity sector. It uses the research information that Royal Mail has been collecting foroveradecadetoshowthegrowthofthe medium. The diary system used by the Consumer Panel gives an insight into the typical donor and their relationship with charities. This paper looks only at direct mail: ‘personally addressed advertising material that is delivered through the post’. This definition means that leaflets put through the letterbox are excluded. Copyright © 1999 Henry Stewart Publications     

THE EVOLUTION OF COMPETITIVENESS IN HUNGARIAN AGRICULTURE: FROM TRANSITION TO ACCESSION

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

A Nonlinear Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

We present an economically motivated two–factor term structure model that generalizes existing stochastic mean term structure models. By allowing a certain parameter to acquire dynamical behavior we extend the two–factor model to obtain a nonlinear three–factor model that is shown, in a deterministic version, to be equivalent to the Lorenz system of differential equations. With reasonable parameter values the model exhibits chaotic behavior. It successfully emulates certain properties of interest rates including cyclical behavior on a business cycle time scale. Estimation and pricing issues are discussed. Standard PCA techniques used to estimate HJM type models are observed to be equivalent to dimensional estimates commonly applied to 'spatial data' in nonlinear systems analysis.
It is concluded that techniques commonly used in the analysis of nonlinear systems may be directly applicable to interest rate models, offering new insights in the development of these models. Tests of nonlinearity in interest rate behavior may need to focus on long cycle times.     

Mapping and analysing virtual outcrops

Laser scanning is a very efficient way to generate realistic, high-resolution digital models of 3-D geological outcrops. This paper discusses the methodologies involved in the creation and analysis of virtual outcrops, based on laser scanner data. The visualisation of the laser scanner data as a photorealistic 3-D object is described. Geological features picked out on the virtual outcrop (e.g. fractures, faults or bedding planes) can be extrapolated outward, into space, and inward, into the subsurface, using tension surfaces.     

An Experimental Study of Statistical Discrimination by Employers

This article reports findings of an experiment motivated by a dynamic labor market model that considers the problem faced by employers in making hiring decisions between workers of different types. The question examined here is how quickly employers learn about the ability of a group of workers through observing representatives of that group. If prior opinions are weak, the employer will use Information from the workplace to quickly update any incorrect group-based stereotypes it may have. On the other hand, if priors are heavily weighted, incorrect initial perceptions will result in persistent wage differences. Our experimental findings are twofold. First, subjects' (employers') behavior moves quickly toward optimal choices. Second, strong priors are hard to establish. These results suggest that it would take a long time for employers to form group-based stereotypes and that such stereotypes should go away quickly in response to signals that contradict these stereotypes.     

The European economy at the cross roads: Structural reforms, fiscal constraints, and the Lisbon Agenda

This paper studies the incentives to sustain and extend a monetary union under alternative assumptions about the extent of market reform within the union and accession countries. Lack of labour mobility, or wage/price flexibility, or fiscal reform, brings costs for both new entrants and in the existing union. Countries will therefore want a union where there has been sufficient reform, and also one where markets are more flexible than their own. But existing members will want the same properties of their partners. Fiscal restrictions may exaggerate this incentive mismatch and could therefore delay the necessary reforms. Similarly, too large costs up front may also delay those reforms.