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71.
This article deals with the analysis of house price indexes from a long-range dependence viewpoint. In particular, it estimates the fractional differencing parameter in the London and Paris house price series recognizing in some cases the potential seasonality and allowing for breaks in the data. Moreover, it analyses the stability of the parameters across the sample period examined. It is concluded that the series are nonstationary but mean reverting in some cases and very persistent in others. Policy implications are derived. 相似文献
72.
Pairs trading is a popular dollar-neutral trading strategy. This article, using the components of the S&P 500 index, explores the performance of a pairs trading system based on various pairs selection methods. Whereas large empirical applications in the literature focus on the distance method, this article also deals with well-known statistical and econometric techniques such as stationarity and cointegration which make the trading system much more demanding from a computational point of view. Trades are initiated when stocks deviate from their equilibrium. Our results confirm, after controlling for risk and transaction costs, that the distance method generates insignificant excess returns. While a pairs selection following the stationarity criterion leads to a weak performance, this article reveals that cointegration provides a high, stable and robust return. 相似文献
73.
74.
Nicolas Hérault Dean Hyslop Stephen P. Jenkins Roger Wilkins 《Review of Income and Wealth》2024,70(1):154-186
Using income tax administrative data for Australia, we examine levels and trends in the persistence in top-income group membership, focusing on the top 1 percent. Top-income persistence increased markedly between 1991 and 2018, with most of the increase occurring in the mid-2000s and early 2010s. In the mid- to late-2010s, Australian top-income persistence rates were near the top of the range of tax-data estimates for other countries. We decompose the increase into factors associated with (i) changes in the composition of the top-income group and (ii) increases in persistence rates for specific population subgroups. We find that the rise in top-income persistence is accounted for by changes in subgroup persistence rates, notably for individuals aged 35–64, and especially those aged 55–64. We suggest that these effects are partially related to increases in the effective retirement age over the relevant period. 相似文献
75.
Knowledge flows and the geography of networks: A strategic model of small world formation 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
This paper aims to demonstrate that the strategic approach to link formation can generate networks that share some of the main structural properties of most real social networks. For this purpose, we introduce a spatialized variation of the Connections model [Jackson, M.O., Wolinsky, A., 1996. A strategic model of social and economic networks. Journal of Economic Theory 71, 44–74] to describe the strategic formation of links by agents who balance the benefits of forming links resulting from imperfect knowledge flows against their costs, which increase with geographic distance. We show, for intermediate levels of knowledge transferability, clustering occurs in geographical space and a few agents sustain distant connections. Such networks exhibit the small world property (high clustering and short average relational distances). When the costs of link formation are normally distributed across agents, asymmetric degree distributions are also obtained. 相似文献
76.
Nicolas Coeurdacier 《Journal of International Economics》2009,77(1):86-100
Two of the main puzzles in international economics are the consumption and the portfolio home biases. We solve for international equity portfolios in a two-country/two-good stochastic equilibrium model with trade costs in goods markets. We show that introducing trade costs, as suggested by Obstfeld and Rogoff [Obstfeld, M., Rogoff, K., 2000a. The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause? NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 15], is not sufficient to explain these two puzzles simultaneously. On the contrary, we find that trade costs create a foreign bias in portfolios for reasonable parameter values. This result is robust to the addition of non-tradable goods for standard calibrations of the preferences. 相似文献
77.
This paper focuses on the opposition between two contemporary research programs in economics: behavioral economics (BE) and experimental market economics (EME). Our claim is that the arguments of this opposition can be clarified through the lens of another opposition in the philosophy of probability and in probability theory, between Bayesianism and frequentism. We show how this probabilistic opposition has indirectly shaped a controversy in psychology that opposes two research programs – Heuristics and Biases and Ecological Rationality – which play respective roles in the foundations of individual rationality in BE and EME. To understand these theoretical interrelationships, we investigate the 1996 controversy between Kahneman, Tversky, and Gigerenzer. Those psychologists held different views on how probabilistic representations influence the context-dependency of rationality. This provides a rationale to suggest that a probabilistic ghost may be haunting the experimental machine in economics, and explains how and why the oppositions between BE and EME are structured around the interplay between the norms of rationality and the context in which rationality is exercised. 相似文献
78.
79.
We develop a structural risk‐neutral model for energy market modifying along several directions the approach introduced in Aïd et al. In particular, a scarcity function is introduced to allow important deviations of the spot price from the marginal fuel price, producing price spikes. We focus on pricing and hedging electricity derivatives. The hedging instruments are forward contracts on fuels and electricity. The presence of production capacities and electricity demand makes such a market incomplete. We follow a local risk minimization approach to price and hedge energy derivatives. Despite the richness of information included in the spot model, we obtain closed‐form formulae for futures prices and semiexplicit formulae for spread options and European options on electricity forward contracts. An analysis of the electricity price risk premium is provided showing the contribution of demand and capacity to the futures prices. We show that when far from delivery, electricity futures behave like a basket of futures on fuels. 相似文献
80.
Drawing together the areas of behavioral finance and positive psychology, the present research sought to investigate whether the psychological capital of investment fund managers is associated with fund performance in a context of financial instability. The theoretical propositions were presented and evaluated empirically through primary data on investment fund manager profiles and secondary data on the cumulative stock fund returns. The results indicate that funds managed by managers with greater resilience and optimism obtained a higher return than the mean profitability in a period of market instability. 相似文献