The Halle Economic Projection Model

In this paper we develop an open economy model explaining the joint determination of output, inflation, interest rates, unemployment and the exchange rate in a multi-country framework. Our model—the Halle Economic Projection Model (HEPM)—is closely related to studies published by Carabenciov et al. (2008a,b,c). Our main contribution is that we model the Euro area countries separately. In doing so, we consider Germany, France, and Italy which represent together about 70% of Euro area GDP. The model combines core equations of the New-Keynesian standard DSGE model with empirically useful ad-hoc equations. We estimate this model using Bayesian techniques and evaluate the forecasting properties. Additionally, we provide an impulse response analysis and historical shock decomposition.     

Entry and Exchanges of Cost Information

The literature on exchanges of information has ignored firms' entry decisions. Yet, the Federal Trade Commission recently expressed concerns that exchanges of information in business-to-business electronic platforms would adversely impact entry and, thus, consumers. When entry decisions are endogenized in a competitive Cournot model with cost uncertainty, we find results that contrast sharply with current thinking on the welfare consequences of information sharing.     

The costs of increased localization for a multiple-product food supply chain: Dairy in the United States

There is increased interest in greater localization of food supply chains but little evidence about the effects of localization on supply-chain costs. Assessing these effects is complex in multiple-product, multi-process supply chains such as the dairy industry. In this study, we develop a spatially-disaggregated transshipment model for the US dairy sector that minimizes total supply-chain costs, including assembly, processing, interplant transportation and final product distribution. We employ the cost-minimizing solution as benchmark to compare alternative scenarios of increased supply chain localization. Our results indicate: (1) short-run limits to increased localization, (2) modest impacts on overall supply-chain costs, and (3) large cost re-allocations across supply chain segments, regions and products. We find that increased localization reduces assembly costs while increase processing and distribution costs. Cost increases are larger in regions with smaller raw milk supplies and during the season when less raw milk is produced. Minimizing distances traveled by all dairy products results in tradeoffs across products in terms of cost and distance traveled. The relationship between increased localization and costs appears to be nonlinear.     

人民币汇率变动与我国劳动力就业

随着人民币汇率逐步走高,汇率与我国劳动力就业之间的关系也引起学界更多的关注。研究表明,人民币汇率走高将会加大我国劳动力就业的压力,但这种影响是由国际贸易、国际投资以及消费模式间接传导出来的,并因为国际贸易、国际投资与消费之间的互动关系,而进一步加大。应将稳定就业甚至适度扩大就业作为我们调整人民币汇率的一个利益出发点,从三个中间变量着手,尽可能降低人民币升值所带来的就业负效应。     

Packs,Troops and Herds: Prosocial Cooperatives and Innovation in the New Normal

Prosocial organizations are emerging to tackle the effects of a New Normal. As they navigate its fragile and liquid institutional membranes, they prioritize cooperative forms of governance. These forms allow for collaboration and democratic decision-making necessary for the development of innovative solutions in this new context. At the same time, the high coordination costs of cooperatives lead to significant market pressures. Therefore, understanding when and under what conditions these new cooperatives innovate and strive is important as it provides insight into whether and how these ventures can become a viable alternative in this changing landscape. Using configurational analyses of organizational enablers leading to innovation in 40 entrepreneurial cooperatives, we identify three approaches: Attentive Pack, Eclectic Troop, and Wandering Herd, showing that innovative outcomes can indeed emerge under traditional cooperative features emphasizing collectivism. However, the pursuit of higher novelty requires a shift to more individualistic, business-as-usual, approaches. The New Normal does indeed enhance entrepreneurial activity, but of a different kind comprising novel sets of antecedents and outcomes, which we show can easily become the new dominant form of venturing required in this new context.     

世界石油物探行业发展趋势及中国企业面临的挑战

国际金融危机造成石油公司大幅削减物探投资,对石油物探行业形成巨大冲击。金融危机后,物探作业队伍数量仍处于较高水平,物探市场供给过剩,竞争激烈,物探公司经营困难;大量深海低端船只退出市场,海上物探船走向高端时代;多用户业务投资和收入大幅下降。物探行业的变化给中国石油物探企业带来了巨大挑战。建议中国石油物探公司：1）加强成本管理。理顺流程,加大合力,发挥规模效应,避免重复建设和浪费;加大资源、管理和技术的共享,形成竞争优势;提高公司整体管理水平和项目运作效率。2）重视对国家石油公司和国际大石油公司这两个客户群体的细致分析和研究。3）培育多用户项目运作能力。通过与经验丰富的公司的合作,逐步实现独立自主运作多用户项目。4）大力推进技术创新。将科技投入作为加快企业发展的战略性投入,加强企业技术创新人才的培养和高端技术人才的引进,理顺物探企业技术创新管理体系,提高技术创新的投入产出率。     

北京奥运后陕北少儿体校发展现状研究

北京奥运我国金牌总数首登第一,取得了举世瞩目的成绩,国人为之振奋,这些成绩的取得与各级体校的贡献是分不开的,北京奥运后各级体校应如何发展决定着后备人才的培养情况,笔者对陕北各级体校办学现状进行调研,客观分析了存在的问题,提出一些较符合陕北实际的有利于各级体校发展的建议,旨在为陕北各级体校的可持续发展提供参考。