Agent-Based Facilitation of Water Allocation: Case Study in the Drome River Valley

The purpose of the 1992 French Water Act is to encourage negotiation and dialogue among local stakeholders within a framework which is very similar to a patrimonial approach. Potential use of models in such post-normal approaches is analyzed. Two kinds of models are compared: one is agent-based, the other follows a more classical approach. They are compared according to their contributions as negotiation support tools. This comparison is based on a specific collective decision process dealing with water allocation at the sub-basin scale, in which authors are involved. Both are used to support collective decision processes through simulation of resource use dynamics. Agent-Based Models entail the broadening of spatial information of actors in the process, revealing inter-connected topics not taken into consideration earlier. This makes it possible to remain relevant, despite the sometimes rapidly evolving stakes. The central point of this paper is the implementation, within a practical application, of theories advocating the use of ABM as a collective decision support system. This application promotes a better understanding of the kind of support ABM provides and the way it does so. This is brought about more by re-framing the discussion and modifying the representation of the system on the part of the stakeholders than by providing specific agreements.     

Distributional consequences of labor-demand shocks: the 2008–2009 recession in Germany

The distributional consequences of the recent economic crisis are still broadly unknown. While it is possible to speculate which groups are likely to be hardest-hit, detailed distributional studies are still largely backward-looking due to a lack of real-time microdata. This paper studies the distributional and fiscal implications of output changes in Germany 2008–2009, using data available prior to the economic downturn. We first estimate labor demand on 12 years of detailed, administrative matched employer-employee data. The distributional analysis is then conducted by transposing predicted employment effects of actual output shocks to household-level microdata. A scenario in which labor demand adjustments occur at the intensive margin (hour changes), close to the German experience, shows less severe effects on the income distribution compared to a situation where adjustments take place through massive layoffs. Adjustments at the intensive margin are also preferable from a fiscal point of view. In this context, we discuss the cushioning effect of the tax-benefit system and the conditions under which German-style work-sharing policies can be successful in other countries.     

Managing geoenergy-induced seismicity with society

Contemporary and future low-carbon energy supply requires using the deep underground. Ample evidence shows that onshore oil and gas extraction, associated wastewater injection, deep geothermal systems, and carbon capture and storage can induce damaging seismicity. While induced seismicity exhibits symptoms of a potentially controversial issue, research today has been limited to seismic hazard and risk. Here we argue for the need of social scientific insights to inform risk communication and processes of managing geoenergy-induced seismicity with society.     

Portfolio performance gauging in discrete time using a Luenberger productivity indicator

This paper proposes a pragmatic, discrete time indicator to gauge the performance of portfolios over time. Integrating the shortage function (Luenberger, 1995) into a Luenberger portfolio productivity indicator (Chambers, 2002), this study estimates the changes in the relative positions of portfolios with respect to the traditional Markowitz mean-variance efficient frontier, as well as the eventual shifts of this frontier over time. Based on the analysis of local changes relative to these mean-variance and higher moment (in casu, mean-variance-skewness and mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis) frontiers, this methodology allows to neatly separate between on the one hand performance changes due to portfolio strategies and on the other hand performance changes due to the market evolution. This methodology is empirically illustrated using a mimicking portfolio approach (22 and 23) using US monthly data from January 1931 to August 2007.     

Statistical Thinking in Computer-Based Learning Environments

The theme of technology is particularly important for statistics education because of the role of technology in changing views of statistical knowledge, pedagogy and learning. The interactive multimedia technology of today allows for the creation of powerful learning environments where the focus is on the process that produced the data and its associated variation and the statistical thinking required to solve the problem. However, despite this optimistic view, students' self‐regulation and intrinsic motivation seem to be key concepts for learning in complex interactive computer‐based learning environments. We conclude with observations of teachers and students working with applets. More of these evaluations should be published and/or made available to the statistical community so that both positive and negative teaching experiences can be shared.     

Small business owners and health

Small Business Economics - The present article identifies a societal and scholarly neglect for the field of small business ownership and health. We address health capital and its spillover effects...     

Measuring and forecasting mobile game app engagement

Monetization strategies in the large and strongly growing mobile app space must go beyond traditional purchase revenue as most mobile apps are now free to download. One key marketing innovation allows mobile app publishers to monetize ongoing engagement — in-app advertising.We study ongoing user engagement with a mobile app after the initial download decision using the $40 billion mobile gaming industry as an example. Our study investigates and forecasts user engagement after the initial download aiming to help publishers to monetize their engagement via in-app advertising. We leverage a novel dataset containing user-level engagement for 193 mobile games and propose a hierarchical Poisson model on a mobile-game level. We find significant usage heterogeneity across the mobile games studied and generate forecasts publishers can use when trying to monetize engagement via pre-sold contracts.     

Managers’ Citizenship Behaviors for the Environment: A Developmental Perspective

The objective of this longitudinal study is to analyze the intrinsic drivers and values underlying managers’ organizational citizenship behaviors for the environment (OCBEs) from a developmental psychology perspective based on measuring the stages of consciousness that shape the meaning-making systems of individuals. At time 1, the stages of consciousness of 138 managers were qualitatively assessed using the Leader Development Profile test. At time 2, a quantitative survey measured the environmental beliefs and OCBEs of these managers. The links between stages of consciousness, environmental beliefs, and OCBEs were analyzed using hierarchical regressions. The main findings show that managers’ stages of consciousness positively influence two types of OCBEs, namely eco-initiatives and eco-helping, while environmental beliefs influence eco-helping and eco-civic engagement but do not appear to be connected with the stage of consciousness development. This paper first contributes to the literature on corporate greening by shedding more light on the aspects of behavioral and developmental psychology that underlie environmental leadership. Second, it bridges the gap between theories that have developed separately by showing the interconnectedness between the managers’ stage of consciousness and the more concrete environmental behaviors in the workplace that could have emulative effects throughout the organization.     

Search query formation by strategic consumers

Quantitative Marketing and Economics - Submitting queries to search engines has become a major way for consumers to search for information and products. The massive amount of search query data...     

A framework for innovative service design

Drawing on research from design science, marketing, and service science, our paper provides an integrated framework for evaluating and directing innovative service design. The main goal of our review is to highlight the strengths of existing frameworks and to suggest how they can be enhanced in combination with design science principles. Based on our review, we propose a new framework for the design of innovative services that integrates several key paradigmatic approaches and identifies fundamental open research questions. Our approach is unique as it combines three service disciplines, namely services marketing, service science, and design science, and provides a new framework that describes step by step the procedure that needs to be taken and the conditions that need to be met for developing innovative services. We believe that providing such a framework is a valuable addition to the literature.