Total factor productivity growth for 12 Asian economies: The past and the future

This study examines the importance of TFP growth in the long-term past and future economic growth of 12 Asian economies. We analyze the pattern of past growth based on a calculation of TFP growth, investigate the TFP dynamics by estimations of a TFP growth model, decompose the factors affecting TFP growth, and offer long-term projections of TFP growth. The main findings are as follows. First, results suggest that the growth accounting paradigm has shifted in the recent decade toward a productivity-based growth paradigm. Second, the catch-up effect is the major source of TFP growth in past decades, and the human capital contribution to TFP growth is gradually rising in Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan in the most recent decade but is stagnated or weakened for other Asian economies. Third, the results project strong TFP growth for the two subperiods of 2010–2020 and 2020–2030 and thus suggest that the productivity-based growth will continue in the future long-term growth of the Asian economies.     

Rational Beliefs or Distorted Beliefs: The Equity Premium Puzzle and Micro Survey Data

This paper examines whether the expected equity premium constructed from survey forecasts is consistent with the implications of the rational belief approach or the distorted belief approach to explaining the equity premium puzzle. To address this question, a panel data model with a fixed individual effect and a business cycle effect is analyzed. The results appear more favorable to the distorted belief approach. The average expected equity premium is lower than the average realized equity premium during the sample period. The average bias across economists is significant and varies over the business cycle, which is consistent with distorted beliefs that are excessively pessimist.c over expansions and excessively optimistic over contractions.     

Political patronage and analysts’ forecast precision

We test whether the channel by which the government plays the role of political patron to selected firms influences analysts’ forecast precision in Malaysia. Correcting for analysts’ self-selection bias, we find a negative relation between analysts’ forecast errors and the social dimension of political patronage, as proxied by government-controlled institutional ownership. The reverse is found for the economic dimension of political patronage, as proxied by the percentage shareholding of government-linked corporations. We find no evidence that the personal dimension of political patronage influences analysts’ forecast precision.     

Varying Coefficient Regression Models: A Review and New Developments

Varying coefficient regression models are known to be very useful tools for analysing the relation between a response and a group of covariates. Their structure and interpretability are similar to those for the traditional linear regression model, but they are more flexible because of the infinite dimensionality of the corresponding parameter spaces. The aims of this paper are to give an overview on the existing methodological and theoretical developments for varying coefficient models and to discuss their extensions with some new developments. The new developments enable us to use different amount of smoothing for estimating different component functions in the models. They are for a flexible form of varying coefficient models that requires smoothing across different covariates' spaces and are based on the smooth backfitting technique that is admitted as a powerful technique for fitting structural regression models and is also known to free us from the curse of dimensionality.     

Consumer rationality and credit card pricing: An explanation based on the option value of credit lines

An option is embedded in credit cards. Since credit cards offer open credit lines, cardholders can borrow at the same terms when they become riskier. This option value raises the zero‐profit card rate. Furthermore, adverse selection occurs if cardholders are better informed about the probability of becoming riskier in the future and borrow more when they become riskier. The adverse selection can limit rate competition and keep the card rate above the zero‐profit card rate. An up‐front fee is not a good alternative because it is also vulnerable to adverse selection. A low introductory card rate is an effective way to avoid the adverse selection problem when asymmetric information is mainly about the change in the borrower's risk profile in the future, as opposed to the riskiness in the present period. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Effects of Oil Price on the Korean Economy: A Global VAR Approach

This article empirically explores the effects of oil price on the Korean economy using a Global VAR model. First, we evaluate the average connectedness of oil price with the Korean domestic variables over the precrisis period. We then investigate the time-varying contribution of oil price to the Korean financial and real sectors during and after the global financial crisis through recursive estimation. It is found that the contribution of oil price becomes very large in the case of real exports, equity prices, and real output, but plays a much less prevalent role in the remaining cases. In the meantime, the time-varying contribution of oil price to the Korean economy has not changed during and after the global financial crisis. Interestingly, we find that the Korean economy is affected mostly by overseas financial conditions in the short-term but it becomes more susceptible to oil price fluctuations in the long run, suggesting that Korea’s reliance on energy imports leaves the economy exposed to volatility in energy prices.     

Glass ceiling or sticky floor? Evidence from a distributional approach of the gender wage gap among PhD holders in South Korea

This study examines the gender wage gap, to explore whether a glass ceiling (large unexplained wage gaps in the upper percentiles) or sticky floor (large unexplained wage gaps in the lower percentiles) exists in the wage distribution of the most educated Koreans. This study focuses on seeking these distributional patterns for a theoretically homogeneous gender group, relying on a smaller dataset of PhD holders. Counterfactual methods combining recentered influence function decomposition with propensity score matching allow us to estimate how the wage gap between statistically similarly matched males and females, varies across the unconditional wage distribution. There is evidence of a strong sticky floor and a limited glass ceiling among Korean PhD holders. Results show that a negative relationship between a high level of education and the gender wage gap cannot be taken for granted, at least in South Korea. Even female PhD holders suffer from gender discrimination, especially when they are at the bottom end of the wage distribution.     

Linear programing models for portfolio optimization using a benchmark

We consider the problem of constructing a perturbed portfolio by utilizing a benchmark portfolio. We propose two computationally efficient portfolio optimization models, the mean-absolute deviation risk and the Dantzig-type, which can be solved using linear programing. These portfolio models push the existing benchmark toward the efficient frontier through sparse and stable asset selection. We implement these models on two benchmarks, a market index and the equally-weighted portfolio. We carry out an extensive out-of-sample analysis with 11 empirical datasets and simulated data. The proposed portfolios outperform the benchmark portfolio in various performance measures, including the mean return and Sharpe ratio.     

Patterns and strategies of Foreign Direct Investment: the case of Japanese firms

This paper is to study globalization motives and strategies of Japanese manufacturing industries by analyzing the causes and patterns of foreign direct investment (FDI) of Japanese manufacturing firms. We use regression analysis to determine internally driving-out factors and externally-inducing factors. Japanese FDI strategy has gone through three different stages; from natural resource-seeking investment in the 1950s and 1960s to market-expansion investment in the 1970s and 1980s and to a combination of cost-reducing (low-cost labor-seeking) investment and market-penetrating investment in the 1990s. Our findings show that Japanese FDI in Asia and other developing countries tends to be in labor-intensive sectors where Japanese firms are losing their comparative advantages at home. The main motive for FDI into these regions is low-cost resource seeking. On the other hand, Japanese FDI in the US and Europe tends to be knowledge-intensive sectors where Japanese firms attempt to internalize transaction and information costs by globalizing its production. The main motive for FDI into these regions is market-seeking.     

International trade of GMO-related agricultural products

This paper examines the international trade of a variety of genetically modified (GM) food products over a 27-year period (1984–2011) with data from the United Nations using the tools of social network analysis. The results indicate that each of the different crops have a distinctive pattern of trade that has changed over time due to a number of different factors. Also, trade in agricultural commodities became more diversified over time, dominated less by the United States and other nations central in the trade networks and trade in the individual GM crops was stable over time. Countries maintained their trading partners for specific crops, despite the adoption of the genetically modified varieties. The economic implications of these results are discussed for specific countries.