Aid, Agriculture and Poverty in Developing Countries

The authors make two contributions to the debate on aid‐effectiveness, illustrating that for impact on poverty what matters is not just the level but also the composition and stability of aid. One specific implication of this for aid policy is that aid most effectively reduces poverty if it supports public (and other) expenditures which are supportive of agricultural development. Regression analysis confirms that these are not only direct expenditure on agriculture, but also on education and infrastructure, and military expenditure has a negative impact. Three factors appear to be particularly conducive to the development of stable pro‐poor expenditure patterns (and in particular pro‐agriculture expenditure patterns). These are expenditure strategies which protect the poor against risk, the development of stable relations between governments and aid donors, and long‐term political commitment to pro‐poor strategies by government. The argument is pursued partly by panel‐data econometric analysis of developing countries as a whole, and partly by case studies of sustained and non‐sustained green revolutions in heavily aid‐dependent countries in Africa.     

The demographic impact of AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa: short- and long-term projections

"This paper describes the methodology used to incorporate AIDS mortality in recently revised World Bank population projections....The paper first reviews different approaches for projecting AIDS and its demographic consequences. This is followed by a summary of an epidemiological model that simulates the spread of HIV used in this analysis, and a demographic model that translates mortality from AIDS into population outcomes. These models are then used in a set of simulations, from which the effect of current HIV prevalence on projected future mortality is extracted. Finally, the extracted equations linking current HIV prevalence with future mortality indicators are applied to sub-Saharan countries with a measurable level of current HIV prevalence."     

A comparison of alternative methods of updating input-output coefficients

In recent years there has been a growing number of input-output models of economies ranging in scale from the rural to the national. While offering invaluable insights into the interaction of sectors within an economy, the input-output model suffers from the fact that its coefficient values are altered over time due particularly to technological change. Two of the prominent techniques designed to update these technical coefficients, the RAS and linear programming methods, are compared herein with regard to changes in U.S. national coefficients between 1963 and 1967. Suggestions for improvements to the latter method are outlined.     

A preliminary evaluation of the new RIDP and its impact on regional development in South Africa

The debate on regional political autonomy makes regional economic development a subject of central importance. Current policy is embodied in the Regional Industrial Development Programme (RIDP), as revised in May 1991. Regional industrial policy in South Africa originated in 1956 with the Border Industry Programme, whose objective was to create economically independent sovereign states, Subsequent shifts of emphasis from socio‐political objectives towards a predominantly economic orientation in the 1991 RIDP were expected to concentrate the allocation of resources to industry at locations with greater natural potential for industrial development.

An evaluation of the preliminary results of the 1991 RIDP confirms these expectations in that, as far as capital investment is concerned, a certain degree of concentration is already discernible especially in metropolitan areas and secondary cities. However, it seems there are a number of factors present in the market‐place that are still inhibiting the full realisation of the objective of concentrated industrial development at locations with a natural potential for industrial development. The existing institutional development framework, the availability of relatively cheap excess infrastructure in certain locations and the spatial application of the new RIDP are some of the factors that could possibly have influenced locational decision making during the last 20 months.

Therefore, although the new RIDP is more market orientated than its predecessor and certainly much more economically sustainable, a number of issues still need attention, and further adjustments to the programme should be made if the various regions are to be developed optimally and scarce economic resources utilised effectively.     

An appropriate development strategy for Southern Africa∗

The limited successes achieved with development in the Third World and the national states in Southern Africa have necessitated a considerable change in development thinking and practice. The conventional developmental approach, which is based on growth models, is inappropriate for the conditions in the LDCs. A new development approach, coupled with an appropriate development strategy, has culminated in the development literature.

In this article the poverty problem in Southern Africa is outlined as a general background, whereafter the new development approach and a few guidelines for an appropriate development strategy is discussed. The application of the new strategy in the circumstances of Southern Africa is highlighted.