A Simulation Approach to Nonparametric Empirical Bayes Analysis

We deal with general mixture of hierarchical models of the form m(x) = f_øf(x |θ) g (θ)dθ , where g(θ) and m(x) are called mixing and mixed or compound densities respectively, and θ is called the mixing parameter. The usual statistical application of these models emerges when we have data x_i, i = 1,…,n with densities f(x_i|θ_i) for given θ_i, and the θ₁ are independent with common density g(θ) . For a certain well known class of densities f(x |θ) , we present a sample-based approach to reconstruct g(θ) . We first provide theoretical results and then we use, in an empirical Bayes spirit, the first four moments of the data to estimate the first four moments of g(θ) . By using sampling techniques we proceed in a fully Bayesian fashion to obtain any posterior summaries of interest. Simulations which investigate the operating characteristics of our proposed methodology are presented. We illustrate our approach using data from mixed Poisson and mixed exponential densities.     

Auctioning countermeasures in the WTO

We offer a first formal analysis of auctioning retaliation rights within the WTO. We show that the auctions exhibit externalities among bidders, and we characterize equilibrium bidder behavior under alternative auction formats. If the violating country is prevented from bidding to retire the right of retaliation against it, then the possibility of “auction failure” arises, whereby no bids are made despite positive valuation by bidders. If the violating country is instead permitted to bid, then auction failure is precluded, and indeed the right of retaliation is always retired. We evaluate these different auction formats from normative (revenue, compliance, efficiency) standpoints.     

Office Capitalization Rates: Real Estate and Capital Market Influences

Focusing on the office capitalization rate, the central objective of this article is to shed light on two sets of issues that have not yet been fully researched. The first involves the importance of local-fixed and time-variant components of the office capitalization rate, and the significance of persistence in its time trends. The second centers on the relative importance of local office markets and the national capital market in shaping the various components of the office capitalization rate. Extensive econometric analysis of capitalization-rate series employed to address these issues highlights the existence of both local fixed and time-variant effects, while indicating differential persistence of time trends across markets. Moreover, such analysis uncovers the pivotal role of specific local office-market traits and the lesser role of national capital-market features in determining office capitalization-rate variations. Such findings on the role of local influences may provide a richer foundation for asset valuation and investment practices.     

Asset pricing with time-varying betas for stocks traded on S&P 500

This study uses a novel approach for capturing time variation in betas whose pattern is treated as a function of market returns. A two-factor model (TFM) is constructed using estimated coefficients of a nonlinear regression. The model is tested against the CAPM and the Fama and French three-factor model in the context of time series regressions. The used stocks are traded on S&P 500. The period spans from 1993 to 2011. The time series regression results depict the superiority of the TFM in explaining portfolio returns including momentum ones. We also provide evidence that the particular portfolios employed at the construction of the new model accommodate different fundamental characteristics and different risk levels.     

Quantifying the evolution of world trade, 1870–1949

The typical narrative regarding the evolution of world trade prior to World War II refers to a secular rise starting around 1870 and a subsequent collapse beginning in 1914. This narrative, however, is based on measures of trade openness that do not fully take into account purchasing power differences across countries. Due to lack of alternative data, the measures employed in the existing literature are typically based on non-PPP-adjusted trade data denominated by PPP-adjusted GDP data. The present paper seeks to resolve this inconsistency by constructing new trade share estimates for 62 countries, representing 90% of world GDP, for the period from 1870 to 1949. Our estimates combine historical import and export figures with non-PPP-adjusted GDP values that we estimate via the short-cut method. Our estimates confirm qualitatively the narrative of a dramatic rise and fall of world trade over this period. Yet, they indicate that this rise and fall was quantitatively much more pronounced. We find that trade shares were on average 38% higher than previously documented and the world's level of trade openness in 1913 was comparable to that in 1974.     

US Security Strategy and the Gains from Bilateral Trade

We explore the geo‐strategic determinants of bilateral trade flows between the USA and the rest of the world. We develop a three‐party model of security and trade patterns and use data on military assistance and troop deployments over the 1950–2009 period to validate its predictions. We find that security assistance has significant, positive impacts on the shares of bilateral trade between the USA and the recipient country, results that are robust to issues of reverse causality and hold across different sectors.     

Bayesian Modelling of Outstanding Liabilities Incorporating Claim Count Uncertainty

Abstract

This paper deals with the prediction of the amount of outstanding automobile claims that an insurance company will pay in the near future. We consider various competing models using Bayesian theory and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Claim counts are used to add a further hierarchical stage in the model with log-normally distributed claim amounts and its corresponding state space version. This way, we incorporate information from both the outstanding claim amounts and counts data resulting in new model formulations. Implementation details and illustrations with real insurance data are provided.     

Beyond the WTO? An Anatomy of EU and US Preferential Trade Agreements

It is often alleged that PTAs involving the EC and the US include a significant number of obligations in areas not currently covered by the WTO Agreement, such as investment protection, competition policy, labour standards and environmental protection. The primary purpose of this study is to highlight the extent to which these claims are true. The study divides the contents of all PTAs involving the EC and the US currently notified to the WTO, into 14 ‘WTO+’ and 38 ‘WTO‐X’ areas, where WTO+ provisions come under the current mandate of the WTO, and WTO‐X provisions deal with issues lying outside the current WTO mandate. As a second step, the legal enforceability of each obligation is evaluated, and judged on the extent to which the text specifies clear obligations. Among the findings are: (i) EC agreements contain almost four times as many instances of WTO‐X provisions as do US agreements; (ii) but EC agreements evidence a very significant amount of ‘legal inflation’ (i.e. non‐legally enforceable provisions) in the WTO‐X category, and US agreements actually contain more enforceable WTO‐X provisions than do the EC agreements; (iii) US agreements tend to emphasise regulatory areas more compared to EC agreements.