How efficient is the banking system of Asia’s next economic dragon? Evidence from rolling DEA windows

Vietnam is now widely regarded as a rising economic star and the next economic dragon of Asia. Its banking system has played a key role in this stellar economic performance. Since 1990, Vietnam’s banking system has undergone significant changes which saw its composition transformed from being state banks only to now being both state as well as private banks, and has performed generally well in terms of growth, profitability and stability. But is it efficient? We conduct a dynamic analysis of the level and trend of the cost and profit efficiency of the Vietnamese banking sector over the period 1995 to 2011 taking into account the Asian and Global Financial crises. We use the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) Windows Analysis approach and adjust for bank size in calculating the average efficiency score of the banking system. Our empirical findings show that the cost and profit efficiency of the Vietnamese banking system averaged around 0.90 and 0.75, respectively, with the state banks being more efficient than the private banks and with efficiency experiencing an upward trend over the analysis period. Moreover, we find that the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) did not significantly affect the efficiency of the whole Vietnamese banking system.     

Information and adjustment in a local housing market

Existing studies on bubbles have been mainly concerned with investigating the stationarity properties of stock prices and market fundamentals. We develop a new method of testing for bubbles that relates the bubble component of stock prices to the probability of bursting in the context of the Weibull distribution. There were several eruptions and subsequent collapses of seeming bubbles over the past three decades: 1987 (Black Monday), 2000 (information technology (IT) boom) and 2007 (housing market boom). Using US monthly data for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ series, we have found that the S&P 500 series contained an explosive bubble only during the boom of the housing market that occurred before the 2007 global economic crisis, and the NASDAQ market contained an explosive bubble during the surge of stock prices peaking in 1987 and 2007, although our stationarity tests fail to detect the bubbles. No bubble was found in both the S&P and NASDAQ series during the 2000 IT boom. Our evidence corroborates the criticism that the traditional unit root and cointegration tests may not be able to detect some important class of bubbles.     

发展深圳具有中国文化特色的金融市场

本文结合我国当前金融市场对文化层面的需求,通过文化对金融影响的三种途径分析,结合深圳的城市及金融市场特点,提出了发展深圳具有中国文化特色的金融市场构想。经过改革开放30年的发展,我国逐渐形成了银行为主导并且是行政管制为特征的金融体系以及具有中国特色的社会主义市场经济;但在发展的过程中,我们必须把文化、金融、市场统一起来考虑,才能真正形成有中国文化特色的市场经济,才能真正达到"和谐"的境界。本文结合深圳的内在特点,提出从宏观层面和微观层面进行具有中国文化特色的金融市场的建设及可行性,强化文化在金融市场中的作用。     

THE INFORMATIONAL ROLE OF BANK LOAN RATINGS

We analyze the relatively new phenomenon of credit ratings on syndicated loans, asking first whether they convey information to the capital markets. Our event studies show that initial loan ratings and upgrades are not informative, but downgrades are. The market anticipates downgrades to some extent, however. We also examine whether public information reflecting borrower default characteristics explains cross‐sectional variation in loan ratings and find that ratings are only partially predictable. Our evidence suggests that loan and bond ratings are not determined by the same model. Finally, we estimate a credit spread model incorporating bank loan ratings and other factors reflecting default risk, information asymmetry, and agency problems. We find that ratings are related to loan rates, given the effect of other influences on yields, suggesting that ratings provide information not reflected in financial information. Ratings may capture idiosyncratic information about recovery rates, as each of the agencies claims, or information about default prospects not available to the market.     

The NBA, Exit Discrimination, and Career Earnings

The purpose of this article is threefold. First, it complements the many wage discrimination studies by examining exit discrimination in the NBA using a decade's worth of data (the 1980s). White players have a 36 percent lower risk of being cut than black players, ceteris paribus , translating into an expected career length of 7.5 seasons for an apparently similar player who is white and 5.5 seasons for the same player who is black. Second, the career earnings effect of exit discrimination in the 1980s is larger ($808,000) than the career earnings effect of wage discrimination ($329,000). Third, our data are consistent with the hypothesis that customer racial discrimination is the reason for the observed exit discrimination.     

Online shoppers in Australia: dealing with problems

Although the Internet is a convenient platform to conduct commercial transactions, consumers are disadvantaged in the online marketplace due to insufficient information about goods and services as well as business and transaction process, lack of access to redress and several other problems. The number of complaints regarding online transactions increased in Australia from 2001 to 2005, and the number of Internet‐fraud related complaints reported to Consumer Sentinel (USA ) also increased from 2003 to 2006. This, in turn, has undermined consumer trust and impeded the growth of e‐retailing as well as added to the fear among e‐consumers of falling prey to online fraud. In spite of this, the nature and effectiveness of e‐consumer protection has not been adequately studied, notwithstanding extensive research into other aspects of e‐retailing. This article examines (i) the level of awareness of the respondents in the survey in Australia of the current policy framework for addressing consumer protection about online shopping in terms of redress; and (ii) the behaviour of the two groups of respondents in this survey who have and have not encountered problems with online purchases. The findings suggest that most respondents are not aware of the following issues, namely (i) which organizations are involved in e‐consumer protection; (ii) government regulations and guidelines; (iii) industry codes of conduct; (iv) self‐regulatory approaches adopted by business; and (v) the activities of consumer associations to protect consumers in the online marketplace. The findings also show that most respondents would seek redress if they were unhappy with their online purchases and if they knew how to proceed, and that most of them would settle disputes directly with e‐retailers. Also, online shoppers who had encountered problems were more likely to continue purchasing via the Internet than online shoppers who had not encountered any problems. This suggests that respondents find that the benefits offered by e‐retailing outweigh the risks associated with it.     

Pre-IPO ownership structure and its impact on the IPO process

We investigate the impact of pre-issue ownership structure on the key decisions surrounding an IPO. We find that managerial ownership is significantly related to (1) the proportion of shares offered, (2) share allocation, and (3) direct issue-related expenses. This suggests that pre-IPO ownership by managers influences their incentive to maintain control and to lower the cost of going public. In comparison, large pre-IPO non-managerial shareholders are more concerned about exiting, and their presence tends to increase issue size and costs. Our findings indicate that differences in pre-IPO owners’ incentives and bargaining power as implied by their pre-IPO shareholdings can significantly influence the IPO process.     

如何减小全球经济失衡的纠正对中国的冲击

全球经济失衡的根本原因 全球经济失衡的明显特征是经常账户的失衡和长期利率偏低导致许多国家房地产价格的"泡沫性"上涨.对于这一现象的解释分为两个阵营.以即将成为美联储主席的伯南克为首的经济学家认为亚洲国家的高储蓄率导致全球性储蓄过剩,压低了长期实际利率.他们中有不少人把矛头指向中国,认为人民币缺乏灵活性使中国经常账户顺差近年来大幅上升,在固定汇率制下中国大量购买美元资产,为美国的贸易逆差"买单".但是,也有一些经济学家包括不少中国经济学家认为,美国财政赤字的恶化和前期的低利率政策大大降低了美国政府和家庭储蓄,是导致全球经济不平衡的根本原因.但是这种观点无法解释全球利率偏低这一现象,因为美国对于资本流入需求的增长应当推高而不是降低全球利率水平.     

Rice Production,Trade and the Poor: Regional Effects of Rice Export Policy on Households in Vietnam

Analysing Vietnam's rice export policy and recent export ban in the context of rising food prices, this study combines insights from a regionally‐disaggregated or ‘bottom‐up’ CGE model and a micro‐simulation using household data. Three main conclusions are drawn. First, although there is little impact on GDP, there are substantial distributional impacts across regions and households from different export policies and market conditions. Second, both rural and urban households, including poor households, benefit from free trade, even though domestic rice prices are higher. Finally, under free trade, relatively large gains accrue to rural households, where poverty is most pervasive in Vietnam.