Risk premia in forward foreign exchange rates: a comparison of signal extraction and regression methods

We investigate possible presence of time-varying risk premia in forward pound, yen, and Euro monthly exchange rates versus the US dollar over the last two decades. We study this issue using regression techniques and separately using a signal plus noise model. Our models account for time-varying volatility and non-normality in the observed series. Our regression model rejects the hypothesis that the forward rate is an unbiased predictor of future spot exchange rate, indicating the existence of time-varying risk premium under rational expectations. Our signal plus noise model reveals a time-varying risk premium component in yen and Euro. The same model provides evidence for the presence of risk premium in pound over a shorter sample period, though not over the entire sample. We conclude that risk premia exist, although we may fail to detect these for some currencies over specific time periods.     

Markov-switching model selection using Kullback–Leibler divergence

In Markov-switching regression models, we use Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence between the true and candidate models to select the number of states and variables simultaneously. Specifically, we derive a new information criterion, Markov switching criterion (MSC), which is an estimate of KL divergence. MSC imposes an appropriate penalty to mitigate the over-retention of states in the Markov chain, and it performs well in Monte Carlo studies with single and multiple states, small and large samples, and low and high noise. We illustrate the usefulness of MSC via applications to the U.S. business cycle and to media advertising.     

The core of some location games

An important problem in Location Theory is that of assigning plants to locations in an optimal manner. In the context of this problem, recognizing interplant transportation costs, Koopmans and Beckmann (1957) introduced the Quadratic Assignment Problem (QAP). It is shown in this paper that when the QAP is formulated as a cooperative location game, its core may be empty. By contrast, the core of the game corresponding to thelinear assignment problem (where transportation costs are disregarded) is assured to be non-empty. Some conditions under which the core is non-empty are discussed.I am grateful to two anonymous referees of this journal for their comments.     

Optimal univariate inflation forecasting with symmetric stable shocks

Monthly inflation in the United States indicates non-normality in the form of either occasional big shocks or marked changes in the level of the series. We develop a univariate state space model with symmetric stable shocks for this series. The non-Gaussian model is estimated by the Sorenson–Alspach filtering algorithm. Even after removing conditional heteroscedasticity, normality is rejected in favour of a stable distribution with exponent 1·83. Our model can be used for forecasting future inflation, and to simulate historical inflation forecasts conditional on the history of inflation. Relative to the Gaussian model, the stable model accounts for outliers and level shifts better, provides tighter estimates of trend inflation, and gives more realistic assessment of uncertainty during confusing episodes. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Hierarchical Marketing Communications Model of Online and Offline Media Synergies

We propose a new hierarchical model of online and offline advertising. This model incorporates within-media synergies and cross-media synergies and allows higher-order interactions among various media. We derive the optimal spending on each medium and the optimal total budget. We also develop three hypotheses on the effects of within- and across-media synergies on both the total budget and its allocation. We estimate media effectiveness as well as the within- and cross-media synergies of offline (television, print, and radio) and online (banners and search) ads using market data for a car brand. We show that both types of synergies —within-media (i.e., intra-offline) and cross-media (online-offline)— exist. We show how within- and cross-media synergies boost the total media budget and online spending due to synergies of the online media with various offline media.     

The Relationship between Delegation and Incentives Across Occupations: Evidence and Theory

A large literature suggests that incentive pay and delegation of worker authority are positively related. Using data from a large cross section of British establishments, we show that the positive relationship found in the empirical literature masks a stark difference across jobs. Classifying jobs into two categories (complex jobs, including professional, technical and scientific occupations, and simple jobs, consisting of all other non‐managerial occupations) we find a positive relationship for simple jobs and a negative relationship for complex jobs. To explain this negative relationship, we develop a model where stronger incentives distort a worker's decisions towards low risk‐return tasks.     

The Operational Hedging Properties of Intangible Assets: the Case of Non–voluntary Foreign Asset Selloffs

In this paper we examine the valuation effects and long–term performance of US multinational firms involved in forced transfers of their foreign operating assets during the 1965–88 period. The evidence suggests that the operational hedging ability of the firm to address country risk (nationalization threats) is related to the level of its intangible assets. While it is well known that firms with high levels of intangible assets prefer foreign direct investment, our results show that intangible assets have hidden properties of protection against country risk as well. We document significantly negative abnormal returns only for divesting firms with low levels of intangible assets, but not for firms with high levels of intangible assets. In addition, we show that low (high) growth firms are involved in partial (complete) withdrawals, and show that the long–term economic performance of firms choosing the complete withdrawal strategy is better than those that opt to remain. We argue that management's attempt to maintain economic links in a hostile foreign environment can be attributed in part to the firm's low growth opportunities, performance, and lack of contingent plans to address country risk.     

Conditional Heteroskedasticity and Global Stock Return Distributions

This paper investigates conditional return distribution characteristics for seven developed markets (DMs) and eight emerging markets (EMs). With the exception of Germany and Japan, the behavior of monthly returns of DM sample countries is similar to that of the U.S. In contrast, EM returns exhibit a substantially greater degree of serial correlation and a higher incidence of autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) in monthly data. Aggregation of returns into two- and three-month holding periods decreases the significance of the ARCH effects. However, there are cross-sectional differences in the rate at which ARCH effects become insignificant. The findings of ARCH in monthly returns sample data is attributed to differences in the rate at which information arrives and is transmitted into prices in each market.