RESOURCE BOOMS, INEQUALITY, AND POVERTY: THE CASE OF GAS IN BOLIVIA

This paper addresses the question of whether the Bolivian gas boom of the 1990s has bypassed large parts of the poor population, thereby leading to increasing inequalities in an already unequal society. Using a Computable General Equilibrium model that is sequentially linked to a microsimulation model, we examine the transmission channels through which the large resource inflows related to the gas boom, both initial foreign investment in the sector and the subsequent export earnings, as well as large public transfer programs affect the distribution of income. Our focus is on labor market impacts, in particular on shifts between formal and informal employment and changes in relative factor prices. Our simulation results suggest that the gas boom induces a combination of unequalizing and equalizing forces, which tend to offset each other. As net distributional change is limited, growth generated by the boom reduces poverty despite increasing informality.     

Lean Trees—A General Approach for Improving Performance of Lattice Models for Option Pricing

The well-known binomial and trinomial tree models for option pricing are examined from the point of view of numerical efficiency. Common lattices use a large part of time resources for calculations which are almost irrelevant for the solution. To avoid this waste of resources, the tree is reduced to a lean form which yields the same order of convergence, but with a reduction of numerical effort. In numerical tests it is shown that the proposed method leads to a significant improvement in real calculation time without loss of accuracy for a broad class of derivatives.     

Competences for green development and leapfrogging in newly industrializing countries

Competences for green development and leapfrogging in Newly Industrializing Countries are becoming increasingly urgent from a global perspective. The integration of these innovations into the development process in the rapidly growing economies requires knowledge build-up and technology cooperation. The prospect of exporting sustainability technologies can add an incentive for them to move towards sustainability technologies. These issues also affect innovations to increase material efficiency, which are receiving increasing interest among sustainability innovations. The competences for green development are analyzed with an innovation indicator approach. The general innovation capabilities are evaluated using R&D indicators and survey results about general innovation capabilities. Technological competences in the sustainability fields are a key indicator for the absorptive capacity of sustainability technologies and for the ability to export them. International patents and publications, and successes in foreign trade indicate to what extent a country is already able to participate in global technology markets. The resulting pattern shows various strengths and weaknesses of the analyzed countries. In general, the knowledge build up in material efficiency strategies is above-average in the Newly Industrializing Countries. There is a strong need for strategic positioning of the countries and for coordination of the various policy fields involved.     

Government activity and economic growth – one size fits All?

This study investigates the role of government activity in economic growth, arguing that economic systems are important and that, therefore, one size of government does not fit all countries. Taking a panel of 111 countries over the years from 1971 to 2010, we consider clusters of economic systems as predicted by an extended Varieties of Capitalism (VoC) approach. The empirical growth impact of government activity is positive but u-shaped and depends on both the quality of institutions and the institutional setting. For the polar cases of liberal economies and Scandinavian coordinated market economies, the potential growth impact is quite similar and superior to other clusters of countries. However, the maximum growth effect is realized for above-average levels of government activity in the Scandinavian countries, while this would be detrimental to growth in liberal countries. Hence, high levels of government activity are consistent with growth but only in economic systems consistently rooted in a high level of government activity.     

How far away is Europe?

Institutional development in new and potential member countries determines the success of deepening European integration. This papers argues that the timing of future enlargement should depend on institutional convergence between the EU and potential accession candidates. It therefore looks at institutional quality in the EU, in the EU's neighbouring Balkan and Black Sea regions, and especially in Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, and Turkey, i.e. the next countries in the queue for entry. Three dimensions of institutional quality—legislative, administrative and judicial institutions—are analysed on the basis of the World Bank Governance Indicators using institutional quality in EU member states as a benchmark in order to reveal institutional deficits.     

奥地利有机农业发展的经验与启示

一、奥地利有机农业发展的历史与现状 20世纪中叶,人类开始了环境意识的觉醒,人们的食品安全意识也随之提高,消费者对纯天然、无污染的健康食品的需求逐渐增加.     

Stable mixture GARCH models

A new model class for univariate asset returns is proposed which involves the use of mixtures of stable Paretian distributions, and readily lends itself to use in a multivariate context for portfolio selection. The model nests numerous ones currently in use, and is shown to outperform all its special cases. In particular, an extensive out-of-sample risk forecasting exercise for seven major FX and equity indices confirms the superiority of the general model compared to its special cases and other competitors. Estimation issues related to problems associated with mixture models are discussed, and a new, general, method is proposed to successfully circumvent these. The model is straightforwardly extended to the multivariate setting by using an independent component analysis framework. The tractability of the relevant characteristic function then facilitates portfolio optimization using expected shortfall as the downside risk measure.     

Will they buy it? The potential for marketing organic vegetables in the food vending sector to strengthen vegetable safety: A choice experiment study in three West African cities

Considering the hazardous use of synthetic pesticides in vegetable production in urban West Africa, this research investigated the marketing potential of organic vegetables in the food vending sector of Cotonou (Benin), Accra (Ghana) and Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso). Certified organic production and marketing was examined as a potential strategy to improve chemical food safety. A stratified random sampling strategy was applied to study the preferences of food vendors (n = 180) and consumers (n = 360); vegetable use, risk perception, choice preferences and willingness-to-pay (WTP) for organic certification were specifically analyzed. The results showed that awareness of chemical contamination risks was generally low. Appearance of a product was central to vendor choice; consumers attributed similar utility to taste and organic certification. Consumer WTP was calculated to be a premium of 1.04 USD (per plate) if the food served contained only certified organic vegetables. In restaurants, this would mean an average premium of 19% for a meal. If certified organic vegetable production is to make a positive impact on food safety in urban West Africa, we suggest concentrating marketing efforts on the educated “elite” who frequent restaurants. However, considering that restaurant owners exhibited a lower preference for organic certification than lower class food vendors, the marketing situation is difficult. We therefore conclude that demand from the food vending sector alone will not institutionalize domestic certification mechanisms; this underlines the need for public commitment to facilitating such change.