Estimation of International Demand Behaviour for Use with Input-Output Based Data

The making of projections often requires an economy-wide perspective, and the estimation of consumer demands at the international level. In this paper, an implicit, directly additive demand system (AIDADS) is estimated using cross- country data on consumer expenditures from two different sources: the International Comparison Programme (ICP), and the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). The two data sets are found to produce results that are quite consistent despite their differing origins, and the fact that the former is based on consumer goods that embody wholesale/retail margins, while margin demands are treated separately in GTAP. Given the similarity of the results, the estimation based on GTAP data is favoured for economy-wide projection purposes because it can be readily matched to input-output based production and trade data. An additional benefit of the GTAP-based estimates is that they provide direct evidence concerning how aggregate margin expenditures vary with per capita income.     

Would Indian farmers benefit from liberalization of world cotton and sugar markets?

Rich-country support programs for cotton and sugar producers are frequently claimed to be detrimental for developing-country farmers. This study investigates whether a reduction in protectionist policies for Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development cotton and sugar producers would have a measurable effect on the welfare of Indian farmers. The fact that these sectors are intensively regulated within India might suggest that any such effect will be small. However, this study shows econometrically that prices in Indian rural markets closely follow world prices, and that Indian farmers are flexible in the medium to long run in changing production according to price signals from these markets. Depending on the crop and the nature of liberalization, producer surplus increases from 4.2% to 22.3% in the long run.     

Collecting Event Histories with TrueTales:Techniques to Improve Autobiographical Recall Problems in Standardized Interviews

This article deals with the challenges autobiographical recall processes present to validity of events and their dates in the collection of life histories in standardized interviews. Effective interviewing techniques should support the idiosyncratic cognitive structure and the reconstructive memory processes of autobiographical memory by allowing to flexibly explore the interconnections between memories. We describe the techniques and strategies of interviewing and data recording used in the German Life History Study, namely modularization, forward recall and single case data edition. We introduce TrueTales, a CATI- Program designed to support memory and communication in the interview, and results of its experimental evaluation. TrueTales personalizes instructions, questions and probes and permits controlled flexibility in dealing with individual biographies and recall strategies. Working with a calendar-based time-line, it yields more complete, consistent and valid event histories. Finally, we discuss implications for standardized interviewing practices and the concept of standardization.     

IX. Geld und Kapital

Ohne Zusammenfassung