The Cost of Recessions Revisited: A Reverse-Liquidationist View

The observation that liquidations are concentrated in recessions has long been the subject of controversy. One view holds that liquidations are beneficial in that they result in increased restructuring. Another view holds that this rise in restructuring is costly since liquidations are privately inefficient and essentially wasteful. This paper proposes an alternative perspective. On the basis of a combination of theory with empirical evidence on gross job flows and on financial and labour market rents, we find that, cumulatively , recessions result in reduced rather than increased restructuring, and that this is likely to be socially costly once we consider inefficiencies on both the creation and destruction margins.     

China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Reducing or Increasing the World Uncertainties?

Although worldwide poverty, a basic concern of John Kenneth Galbraith, is reducing on average, I argue that poverty remains a critical issue in many countries. This led the Chinese government to propose the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013. Broadly, the BRI constructs a cross-continental nexus between countries to reduce their development uncertainties by increasing their connectivity. As a result, the Chinese government has invested trillions of infrastructure dollars in projects that have been introduced to the involved countries as sovereign debt along with the participation of Chinese multinational corporations. Although evidence has shown that this initiative is gaining increasingly more support from the less-developed countries, signs of uncertainty in various forms have clearly emerged. In light of such, I propose that possible in-country political instability, political conflicts among the participating countries, national debt defaults, and competition between China and the United States of America in regional influence may have added to the underlying uncertainties that have challenged the world.     

Do central banks affect Tobin's q?

Previous work has documented inflation effects on Tobin's q in the long run. This paper examines whether the FED's different policies and chairmen tenure have an impact on Tobin's q, after a modified stylized AD-AS model shows that central banks affect q. We do find changing responses of q depending on the pre-Volcker and post-Volcker periods.     

On the determinants of Original Sin: an empirical investigation

Most countries do not borrow abroad in their own currency, a fact that has been referred to as “Original Sin”. This paper describes the incidence of the problem and makes an attempt at uncovering its cause. The paper finds weak support for the idea that the level of development, institutional quality, or monetary credibility or fiscal solvency is correlated with Original Sin. Only the absolute size of the economy is robustly correlated. The paper also explores the determinants of a country’s capacity to borrow at home at long duration and in local currency. It finds that monetary credibility and the presence of capital controls are positively correlated with this capacity.     

Fiscal consolidation and financial reforms

We use a rare events logistic regression model as well as traditional probit and logit models to investigate the impact of fiscal consolidation on the likelihood of financial reforms for a panel of 17 countries over the period 1980–2005. We show that large austerity plans, mainly implemented through spending cuts rather than tax hikes, promote financial reforms. By considering reforms affecting specific areas of the financial sector, we find that the banking sector reforms and domestic finance reforms are more likely to occur when fiscal adjustments are put in place. Interestingly, while banking sector reforms are mainly prompted during periods of tax-driven consolidations, spending cuts driven consolidation packages seem to propel the implementation of domestic finance reforms. Finally, we show that higher inflation, lower degree of trade openness, a deterioration of financial conditions and, to some extent, a fall in the degree of competitiveness enhance the probability of financial reforms.     

On the Epidemiological Microfoundations of Sticky Information*

We estimate and compare two models in which households periodically update their expectations. The first model assumes that households update their expectations towards survey measures. In the second model, households update their expectations towards rational expectations (RE). While the literature has used these specifications indistinguishably, we argue that there are important differences. The two models imply different updating probabilities, and the data seem to prefer the second one. We then analyse the properties of both models in terms of mean expectations, median expectations, and a measure of disagreement among households. The model with periodical updates towards RE also seems to fit the data better along these dimensions.     

Investment in Design and Firm Performance: The Mediating Role of Design Management*

Design management is an increasingly important concept, research into which is remarkably scarce. Although the literature suggests that design management has an effect on design effectiveness, there is no empirical support for the impact of design management on firm performance. Furthermore, few studies have quantified the contribution that design makes to company performance. The aim of this paper is to analyze the effect of design investment on company performance and how this relationship is mediated by design management skills. Structural equation modeling was used to test the research hypotheses on a data set from the Italian and Spanish ceramic tile industry. Results suggest, first, that design management enhances firm performance. Second, this research also provides empirical evidence that investing in design is positively related to design management. Third, design management plays a significant role in determining the effects of design investment on firm performance. Companies that manage design effectively and efficiently attain better performance than those that do not. Therefore, good design does not emerge by chance or by simply investing in design but rather as the result of a managed process. Additionally, a methodological contribution of the present study lies in the empirical validation of a scale to assess design management skills. Finally, some suggestions are put forward for future lines of research that would complement this study and would go beyond some of its limitations.     

An Extension of the Structural Change Model to International Economic Relations

In this paper Pasinetti's model of structural economic dynamics (1981) is extended to consider international economic relations. Conditions for full employment, full expenditure of income and equilibrium of the trade balance are established for an open economy that requires capital goods to produce final commodities. Analytical results concerning the benefits from free trade and international learning are formally studied. In addition, static and dynamic aspects of the ‘principle of comparative cost advantage’ are analysed considering the determinants of the specialization level.