Inattentive consumers

This paper studies the consumption decisions of agents who face costs of acquiring, absorbing and processing information. These consumers rationally choose to only sporadically update their information and re-compute their optimal consumption plans. In between updating dates, they remain inattentive. This behavior implies that news disperses slowly throughout the population, so events have a gradual and delayed effect on aggregate consumption. The model predicts that aggregate consumption adjusts slowly to shocks, and is able to explain the excess sensitivity and excess smoothness puzzles. In addition, individual consumption is sensitive to ordinary and unexpected past news, but it is not sensitive to extraordinary or predictable events. The model further predicts that some people rationally choose to not plan, live hand-to-mouth, and save less, while other people sporadically update their plans. The longer are these plans, the more they save. Evidence using U.S. aggregate and microeconomic data generally supports these predictions.     

Investment–cash flow sensitivity and investor protection

We examine the role of country-level legal investor protection (i.e., shareholder and creditor protection) on firm investment–cash flow sensitivity (ICFS). Using underexplored research data on investor protection across 21 countries and working with a conservative empirical design, we extend prior literature on the relation between investor protection and ICFS and provide new evidence on how these country-level attributes interact to explain a firm's ICFS. We find that either the strong legal protection of minority shareholders or the strong legal protection of creditors reduces the sensitivity of investment to internal cash flow. However, in countries with strong levels of both minority shareholder and creditor protection, ICFS increases. Our results remain robust after controlling for several alternative explanations. The results support the argument that overregulation arises when policymakers increase investor protection at levels that lead firms to avoid external sources of finance, hampering firm investment. Our findings suggest that countries face a regulatory trade-off such that increasing investor protection (either shareholder or creditors protection) enhances financial markets efficiency, but excessive regulation can indeed lead to financial markets inefficiencies.     

Labor market flexibility and poverty dynamics

The past two decades have witnessed a rapid growth in flexible work arrangements that, in some instances, could expose workers to a higher poverty risk via limited job stability, few advancement opportunities, and low wages. Nowhere in the world has this increase in flexible work arrangements being more evident than in Spain, where about a third of the wage and salary workforce holds fixed-term contracts. Using Spanish panel data and maximum-likelihood binary models that account for state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity, we examine the poverty implications of past and present temporary employment. Our findings suggest that fixed-term contracts are linked to a greater poverty exposure among women and older men relative to open-ended contracts. Furthermore, this greater poverty exposure can last several years due to feedback effects operating via job instability or via the transition to work statuses characterized by higher poverty hazards. Finally, the adverse impact of temporary employment is linked to the short duration of some contracts, thus signaling the importance of work attachment.     

Coffee exports and industrialization in Brazil

We investigate the dynamic relationship between coffee exports and machinery imports in Brazil from 1869 to 1939. Our tests reveal cointegration and bidirectional causality in the temporal sense. This evidence suggests that foreign exchange real revenues from coffee exports were important for the onset of industrialization, as machinery imports proxy for real investment demand. Capital growth, in turn, also helped to boost the country’s exports.     

An empirical test of the Post-Keynesian growth model applied to functional income distribution and the growth regime in Brazil

The main purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate whether, between 1970 and 2008, the Brazilian economy was profit-led or wage-led. To this end, we approach a canonical post-Keynesian growth model (PKGM) to estimate certain vector autoregressive (VAR) models and perform Granger non-causality tests. Three main results are extracted from the generalized impulse-response functions provided by the VAR models. First, a positive profit-share innovation affects economic growth and capacity utilization rate, both in the same direction, suggesting a profit-led pattern. Second, a profit share shock positively affects both the ratio actual/potential output, and capital accumulation, reinforcing the previous result. Third, a capacity utilization shock is shown to positively affect both output growth and capital accumulation via the accelerator effect. On the one hand, the pairwise Granger non-causality test does not provide any evidence of causality running from profit share to economic growth or capacity utilization. On the other hand, there is some evidence of Granger causality running from profit share to capital accumulation.     

Systemic financial crises and the housing market cycle

Using quarterly data for a group of 20 industrialized countries and both continuous- and discrete-time duration models, we show that financial crisis recessions are associated with a two- to three-fold increase in the likelihood of the end of a housing boom. Additionally, recessions preceded by booms in mortgage credit are especially damaging, as their occurrence coincides with an increase in the duration of housing market slumps of almost 90%.     

Influence of the entrepreneur's capacity in business performance

The article presents a theoretical model of the entrepreneur's capacities and their influence on business performance. Starting from the traditional theory of dynamic capacities, those related to entrepreneurship and/or that influence the entrepreneur's capacities are identified, determining factors such as training, experience and confidence. In addition, other factors such as the environmental and institutional environment have been taken into account as they affect the entrepreneurship. For this purpose, a study was carried out with the Smart PLS software in a sample of companies in the tourism sector in the Mar Menor Region (Spain). An essential factor in the development of entrepreneurship in the region is the sustainability of the coastal lagoon. Some considerations are obtained from the study of the factors that determine the model of capacities, in which the confidence of the entrepreneur and the environmental sustainability, exert a positive and significant influence in the business performance. Furthermore, among the mentioned capacities of the entrepreneurial influence, experience and trust are the ones that most influence the success of the tourism business.     

Merger simulation using average market share: An application to the Optimus-TMN mobile merger case

This paper develops a new merger simulation methodology based on the analysis of the performance change of a hypothetical firm with average market share. It applies the methodology to the Optimus-TMN mobile telecom merger case in Portugal, within the context of the December 2006 decision by the Portuguese Competition Authority to authorize the merger between their respective parent companies, Sonaecom and Portugal Telecom. The results suggest that the Optimus-TMN merger would have resulted in 3.8% higher prices and 14.9% lower marginal costs, and would have been welfare-enhancing. These findings attest to the importance of the “efficiency defense” hypothesis of mergers. They suggest that competition authorities are warranted in allowing further consolidation in the telecom sector, but that consolidation should be accompanied by strict retail price-cap regulation.     

Airline Schedule Competition

This paper presents a simple model of airline schedule competition that circumvents the complexities of the spatial approach used in earlier papers. Consumers choose between two duopoly carriers, each of which has evenly spaced flights, by comparing the combinations of fare and expected schedule delay that they offer. In contrast to the spatial approach, the particular departure times of individual flights are thus not relevant. The model generates a number of useful comparative-static predictions, while welfare analysis shows that equilibrium flight frequencies tend to be inefficiently low.     

Option Pricing Bounds: Synthesis And Extension

The main option pricing bounds in the literature were originally obtained through various disparate methods. I show that those bounds can be derived from a single analytical framework. The key to this synthesis lies in the use of a general expression for the price of a call option depending on the corresponding put option's discount factor. Although the put's discount factor is unknown, it can be bounded from below. I use this lower bound on the put's discount factor to derive traditional lower bounds for call prices. In addition, I extend the literature by finding a new tighter lower bound.