On the relationship among efficiency,capitalization and risk: does management matter in local banking market?

By employing a Granger causality methodology in a panel data framework, this article explores the relationship among efficiency, capitalization and credit risk within the local Italian banking system. Focusing the attention on cooperative banks, we specifically test whether managers take more risks in highly concentrated markets (i.e. monopoly) than in partially competitive markets (i.e. duopoly). The evidence shows that in more concentrated markets, management efficiency generates a decrease in risk-taking (rejecting the bad management hypothesis) with respect to the partially competitive markets. Results are consistent with the idea that banks with less local competition are able to increase their profits by indulging more freely in rent-seeking behaviour, minimizing their risk-taking and, consequently, improving the quality of their assets through additional screening processes. The financial crisis does not seem to affect the conduct of management in terms of bank investment decisions and risk-taking. A series of robustness tests generally confirms our findings.     

Anchoring Measurement of the Middle-Income Class to Subjective Evaluation

What constitutes the middle class is hotly debated. Following an income-based approach, a main issue concerns how to fix the income boundaries that define the middle-income tier. This paper offers a novel model-based approach to the use of self-reported class evaluation for identifying those boundaries. The self-declared status responses are modeled using a non-conventional parametrization of an ordered logistic model. In this parametrization, the cut-points of the model are directly interpretable as income boundaries, and the variance of the errors captures the idiosyncratic heterogeneity of the outcome variable. The use of subjective data is exemplified in the estimation of the middle class in Kazakhstan over the period 2003–2015.     

Outside and inside the regression “black box” from exploratory to interior data analysis

Good data analysis consists of three phases: (1) preliminary analysis, (2) confirmatory analysis (model testing), and (3) interior analysis (model checking). Social scientists doing quantitative research usually concentrate on only one of the three: confirmatory analysis. I argue that there is much to be learned from careful preliminary and interior analyses. I present an extensive example of data analysis for each of the three phases using the same data set in each phase. Rather than surveying all the possible tools available in each phase of data analysis, I concentrate on Exploratory Data Analysis techniques (stem-and-leaf plot, letter-value display, box plot, and power transformations) for the preliminary phase, on OLS for the confirmatory phase, and on residuals, leverage and single-case influence measures for interior analysis.     

Unemployment as an Adverse Trigger Event for Mortgage Default

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - There is limited evidence of the role of household-level adverse trigger events in driving mortgage default, and the evidence based on proxies,...     

Flypaper Effect and Sluggishness: Evidence from Regional Health Expenditure in Italy

In Italy, public expenditure reduction is achieved through a revision of social security and health care programs. In particular, public health expenditure control has been implemented through a reform that imposes more stringent budget rules to local governments and a considerable reduction in grants-in-aid from the central government. This paper investigates empirically whether the response to this decrease in categorical lump-sum grants from the central to local governments results in an asymmetric response to intergovernmental grants. Hard budget and soft budget constraint hypotheses are estimated by using a sample of cross-sectional and time observations covering the 20 Italian regions over the period 1989–1993. The main finding is the existence of a standard and a super flypaper effect in both models. The introduction of the soft-budget constraint hypothesis results in a stronger effect of grants and a lower response of own resources which shows that local governments prefer to incur some deficit instead of reducing health care expenditure.     

Leveraging on systemic learning to manage the early phases of product innovation projects

A number of studies have pointed out the importance of the early phases of new product development projects. In fact, these phases (addressed in the literature with different names, such as pre-project activities, concept generation, product planning, idea generation, investigation, product definition) are concerned with a number of critical decisions that have great impact on the performance of product development. Any fault occurring in these early phases in understanding the market needs, in choosing the product architecture and technology and in defining the product specifications would eventually deteriorate the innovation process, since adjustments in later stages imply reworks that are costly and time consuming. Although the relevance of early project phases has been empirically verified in the literature, the mechanisms that allow these phases to be properly managed are still largely unexplored. This paper investigates the articulated and coherent set of methods, organizational mechanisms and behavioural patterns that successful companies adopt to manage concept generation and product planning. Inferences are based on a field research concerning 19 in-depth case studies of Italian and Swedish companies in the vehicles, helicopters and white goods industries. The paper supports findings of other studies concerning the importance of teamworking and communication. However, teamworking emerges as a necessary, but not a sufficient mechanism. Systemic learning from past experiences is the real keystone toward an effective management of the early phases of product development processes.     

Liquidity Crises and Corporate Cash Holdings in Chile

This paper addresses the heterogonous effects of adverse liquidity shocks on corporate cash holdings in an emerging market. We use a large panel dataset with quarterly financial information for Chilean firms during the period 1996–2009. We find three main results. First, liquidity crises have had a negative and economically significant effect on cash holdings, but mainly for small firms; medium‐sized and large firms have not been affected by liquidity crises. Second, liquidity crises reduce the ability of firms to adjust to optimal cash holdings. Finally, medium‐sized firms are less able to adjust cash holdings compared to small and large firms.     

International deflation risks under alternative macroeconomic policies

We use a version of the Global Projection Model covering the United States, Euro area and Japan to assess options for dealing with the looming risk of international deflation. The zero floor to interest rates constrains monetary policy. Confidence intervals, derived from stochastic simulations, indicate ranges of uncertainty. The results suggest a high probability of a declining price level for a couple of quarters in 2009. Suitable policy adaptations reduce the risk that this might turn into a prolonged, global deflation. These include: a price level path target for monetary policy, which would respond to previous, as well as expected, shortfalls from the desired inflation rate; a more stimulative fiscal policy; and an increase in the long-run target for inflation.