AUTOCORRELATION IN MARKET MODEL RESIDUALS

Autocorrelation in market model residuals affects the estimate of market risk measured by beta. Correction for autocorrelation can substantially change the estimate of beta for some common stocks. In view of the importance of beta estimates in financial research and investment practice, an examination is undertaken in this paper of the prevalence of autocorrelation and two of its causes. The evidence indicates that negative autocorrelation affects estimates of beta for a large number of stocks. In addition, negative autocorrelation is most prevalent among thinly traded and low-priced stocks.     

Markets and Islam: A Nervous Alliance

Religious restrictions on the operation of markets in Islamic countries do not necessarily depress consumer welfare in the view of Rodney Wilson, Senior Lecturer in the Economics of the Middle East at the University of Durham Traditional Islamic sanctions on free-market activity may bring satisfaction in other forms, if at a cost the capitalist West might not find tolerable     

ARE SERVICES INCOME-ELASTIC? SOME NEW EVIDENCE

The hypothesis that the demand for services is income-elastic tended to find support in early empirical work. Recent studies however, adopting improved methodologies and better international data (based on PPP exchange rates), have challenged this conventional wisdom. Using an updated, disaggregated dataset covering 60 countries in 1980 this paper re-estimates income and price elasticities of demand for services. It rejects the income-elastic argument overall but confirms a wide range of income elasticity estimates (above and below unity) across different types of services. Estimates are also shown to be sensitive to the a priori model of service demand.     

INTERNATIONAL TRADE BARGAINING AND THE MOST-FAVORED-NATION CLAUSE*

This paper advances a model of multilateral trade negotiations to analyze the effects of the most-favored-nation clause (MFN) on international trade agreements. Negotiations are modeled in a three player, non-cooperative, dynamic bargaining framework that admits the possibility of both bilateral and multilateral agreements. The central result is that bargaining in the presence of MFN results in Pareto efficient, mutually advantageous, multilateral trade agreements. The free-rider problem commonly attributed to the presence of MFN does not arise, and, under a condition of symmetry, each country receives equal gains (or reciprocity) from the agreement. In the absence of MFN, many of these properties may not hold. Examples are given in which at most two of the three countries benefit from agreement. These results suggest that many of the criticisms levied against the MFN clause are misplaced; moreover, attempts to replace unconditional MFN with conditional MFN may sacrifice many of the long-held values of the GATT.     

The productivity effects of the liberalization of Japanese telecommunication policy

In the early 1980s, the Japanese government decided to pursue policies of liberalization that opened Japan's telecommunication market to competition and moved toward the privatization of Nippon Telegraph and Telephone (NTT), the dominant domestic telecommunication service provider. The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of liberalization on the productive performance of NTT. To assess the productive consequences of liberalization, we first provide basic productivity measures for NTT. The Total Factor Productivity (TFP) measures are then decomposed to separate out the effects of liberalization from other factors such as scale, technology, and capacity utilization. The TFP decomposition is based on the parameter estimates of a dynamic cost model.During the 1958–87 period, NTT's TFP level increased at an average annual rate of 3.4%. However, TFP improved at a significantly faster rate following the decision to adopt policies of liberalization. The NTT's average annual TFP growth rate was 5.12% for the 1982–87 period as compared to a 0.26% per year growth rate for the previous five year (1977–82) period. The decomposition of TFP growth appears to indicate that liberalization was a major source of productivity improvement for NTT.     

Stabilising the international wheat market with a US buffer stock

An aggregate simulation model of the wheat market is presented and the simulator is used to analayse (a) a free or non-buffered wheat market, (b) a market buffered by a US wheat reserve, and (c) a free market with fewer trade restrictions. The authors conclude that a US-owned buffer stock of 15M tonnes could greatly reduce US and world wheat price variability at an average annual cost a little under $300 million.     

Relationship marketing,audience retention and performing arts organisation viability

Marketing strategy in performing arts organisations has become particularly important in the increasingly competitive environment in which the arts operate. Since the late 1980s there has been a necessary shift in focus to audience development away from product development. This change in focus is being encouraged to ensure the long‐term viability of performing arts organisations (PAOs) and micro‐economic reform. While government reports have recommended strategies aimed at building audience‐based recognition, this is an expensive approach for many PAOs and does not produce short‐term returns. Little attention has been paid to building enduring relationships with existing audiences as a way of having a more dramatic impact on PAOs' long‐term viability. This paper explores this theme through relationship marketing and the implication of retaining existing audiences. The paper identifies the changing cultural environment which has led to the importance of marketing. It then explains the concepts of relationship marketing and its pertinence to PAOs' viability by presenting a loyalty ladder. The structure is modelled as a dynamic conceptualisation of the relationships (audience and organisation) to assist arts managers to decide whether to focus their efforts on catching or keeping customers to maximise earned income. Copyright © 2002 Henry Stewart Publications