Automation and inequality with taxes and transfers

Declines in low-skill labour shares are reviewed, and a stylised model is constructed to examine their determinants and future implications. A retrospective analysis of US shocks suggests that technological change has contributed more to raising income inequality and the wealth to GDP ratio than other changes. An anticipated future twist away from low-skill labour toward the capital, combined with population growth, risks high unemployment rates. Productivity growth at twice the pace since 1990 limits this, though inequality persists. Analysis shows that a generalisation of the US ‘earned income tax credit’ system with consumption tax outperforms alternatives of the ‘universal basic income’.     

The effect of a currency union on trade: Lessons from the Irish experience

This paper studies the introduction of an exchange rate between Ireland and the UK in 1979 to shed light on the effects of a common currency on the composition of international trade. No evidence is found from time series or panel regressions that the change of exchange rate regime had a significant effect on Anglo-Irish trade. This finding is consistent with previous studies of currency unions between larger, developed countries but conflicts with findings based on more heterogeneous country groupings. The reasons for this discrepancy are discussed.     

Japan's economic slowdown and its global implications: a review of the economic modelling

Despite its role as a driver of global economic growth through the 1970s, in recent decades the rise of China has seen the international importance of Japan's economic performance recede from the public discourse. This is notwithstanding its continuing key role as economic partner to both industrial and developing countries and changes in its economic performance that would otherwise be a matter for global concern. In particular, the tendency for the Japanese economy and its external trade to stagnate not only has immediate consequences for global performance but also foreshadows a path to industrial transition for other key Asian economies. This paper reviews quantitative studies of Japan's performance. It identifies a paucity of results addressing global implications and suggests new research in this direction.     

THE CHOICE AMONG DEBT,EQUITY, AND CONVERTIBLE BONDS

The hybrid nature of convertible bonds continues to interest corporate financial managers, investors, and economists. While much theoretical and empirical research examines an issuer's choice between using straight debt and equity, little research evaluates how an issuer chooses among debt, equity, and convertible bonds. This study extends Marsh's [ 13 ] research on the differences between debt and equity issuers in the United Kingdom by examining U.S. industrial firms that issue debt, equity, or convertible bonds. It also illustrates how various distinguishing features influence the probability that each security will be issued.     

The National Cycle Strategy in the UK: to what extent have local authorities adopted its model strategy approach?

In 1996 the UK government announced a National Cycle Strategy (NCS) which included a model local cycle strategy. This paper reports on the findings of an ongoing research project, which seeks to evaluate the extent to which recently published local cycle strategies reflect best practice as enshrined in the model guidance. The results suggest that the level of take up of the model strategy is highly variable and ranges from authorities which adopt the model in its entirety to those that effectively ignore it. If government targets for increasing cycle use are to be achieved then it will be necessary for more local authorities to develop robust plans which are consistent with the NCS.     

The Accounting Profession: Substantive Change and/or Image Management

The accounting profession’s image and reputation is built upon the members of the profession acting with the “highest sense of integrity” in “the public interest” (AICPA, 2003, www.aicpa.org/about). The Enron debacle initiated the latest crisis facing the profession regarding its image and reputation. The American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA) is the largest professional body representing the accounting profession and the one to which regulators have looked in establishing and upholding professional standards relating to the public practice of accounting and auditing. One of the AICPA’s responsibilities is to “promote public awareness and confidence in the integrity, objectivity, competence and professionalism of CPAs ....” (AICPA, 2003, www.aicpa.org/about). We analyze the public statements issued by the AICPA (i.e., press releases, speeches of officers, testimony, published articles) during this ethical and identity crisis beginning with the AICPA’s first public statement on the Enron debacle (AIPCA 2001) and concluding with the AICPA recognizing the need for a “new accounting culture” (Melancon 2002). In order to better understand the public discourse, we use image restoration theory (Benoit, 1995), because it provides a typology of strategies for dealing with the public face of crises. We identify the three most common strategies the AICPA employs during this period. Proposals for taking corrective action represent the most commonly employed strategy, but the analysis also indicates an attempt to evade responsibility by claiming defeasibility and to reduce the offensiveness of the situation by employing a bolstering strategy. A second analysis using DICTION, a software package useful in revealing latent dimensions in a text, indicates that early statements tend to use language related to accomplishing specific action while the later statements tend more toward general language that relates to peoples’ everyday lives. The findings raise questions as to substantive nature of the changes proposed by the AICPA, and thus, the extent to which the public interest is being served by them.     

Profit Based Efficiency Measures,with an Application to Rice Production in Southern India

Using non‐parametric methods, we estimate the foregone rents due to credit, allocative, and technical inefficiencies of subsistence farmers in Southern India. The lost rents are estimated directly from the Nerlovian efficiency index, and the results suggest the largest foregone rents derive from allocative inefficiencies and then credit inefficiencies. Also, results suggest that farms without well access experience larger losses than those with well access. Econometric results suggest education, the presence of tank water management efforts, and well access influence the level of foregone rent due to allocative and Nerlovian inefficiencies. Educational activities and policies to encourage better management of tanks are considered important for lowering the foregone losses.     

Increasing returns, multinationals and geography of preferential trade agreements

This paper uses a model of horizontal multinational enterprises to explore the relationship between transportation costs and trade policy cooperation. Tariffs have the effect of attracting foreign direct investment to the benefit of consumers in the host country. As transport costs fall, the incentive to impose tariffs falls and the benefits to cooperation rise. Thus, in a repeated game in which cooperation is limited by a self-enforcement constraint, a reduction in transport costs facilitates free trade. This logic is applied to a three-country model to examine preferential trade agreements. It is found that if any country is too distant from the others, then global free trade is not attainable. Rather, if two of the countries are within a critical distance of each other and distant from the third country, then the unique outcome is an exclusive free trade agreement between the two adjacent countries. Thus, the model predicts a strong regional bias in preferential trade agreements.     

Stochastic search variable selection in vector error correction models with an application to a model of the UK macroeconomy

This paper develops methods for stochastic search variable selection (currently popular with regression and vector autoregressive models) for vector error correction models where there are many possible restrictions on the cointegration space. We show how this allows the researcher to begin with a single unrestricted model and either do model selection or model averaging in an automatic and computationally efficient manner. We apply our methods to a large UK macroeconomic model. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.