The relationship between arbitrage in futures and spot markets and Bitcoin price movements: Evidence from the Bitcoin markets

We examine how investors arbitrage the Bitcoin spot and futures markets. Using intraday data of the Chicago Board Options Exchange, we reconstruct the actual arbitrage condition that investors confront. We find that there are few arbitrage profit opportunities in “normal” markets, but large arbitrage profit opportunities arise during Bitcoin market “crashes.”     

Dynamic control of rural–urban migration

This study investigates the optimal urbanization control of an underdeveloped economy by specifying a simple dynamic rural–urban model in which the urban sector bears both an intertemporal positive externality and a simultaneous negative externality. The dynamic optimization problem is solved for the political intervention of the central government in an intersectoral population distribution with taxes and subsidies. Our analysis provides the following results: (i) a big-push policy that leads an economy to a higher-income steady state with urbanization is not necessarily desirable if the government cannot borrow money at a sufficiently low interest rate; (ii) in order to sustain an appropriate urbanization speed, urbanization control policy should have a switch: the urban sector should be subsidized in order to accelerate rural–urban migration in early stages of development, and taxed to decelerate and eventually cease the migration in later stages.     

The optimal choice of moments in dynamic panel data models

This paper derives an approximation of the mean square error (MSE) of the GMM estimator in dynamic panel data models. The approximation is based on higher-order asymptotic theory under double asymptotics. While first-order theory under double asymptotics provides information about the bias, it does not provide enough information about the variance of the estimator. Higher-order theory enables us to obtain information about the variance. From this result, a procedure for choosing the number of instruments is proposed. The simulations confirm that the proposed procedure improves the precision of the estimator.     

Instrumental variable estimation in the presence of many moment conditions

This paper develops shrinkage methods for addressing the “many instruments” problem in the context of instrumental variable estimation. It has been observed that instrumental variable estimators may behave poorly if the number of instruments is large. This problem can be addressed by shrinking the influence of a subset of instrumental variables. The procedure can be understood as a two-step process of shrinking some of the OLS coefficient estimates from the regression of the endogenous variables on the instruments, then using the predicted values of the endogenous variables (based on the shrunk coefficient estimates) as the instruments. The shrinkage parameter is chosen to minimize the asymptotic mean square error. The optimal shrinkage parameter has a closed form, which makes it easy to implement. A Monte Carlo study shows that the shrinkage method works well and performs better in many situations than do existing instrument selection procedures.     

An Intersection-based Approach to Genericity Analysis for the Equilibrium Set, with an Application to the Lindahl Equilibrium

A simple and systematic approach to characterizing the equilibrium set so as to facilitate genericity analysis is presented. The basic idea is to describe the equilibrium set as the intersection of two sets (manifolds), each of which is respectively dependent on each element of the economy parameters. After an expository introduction containing an application of the approach to the standard Walras equilibrium, we investigate some generic properties of the Lindahl equilibrium set under very weak conditions. The approach is also seen to reveal the relation between the benefit principle and the determinacy of the Lindahl equilibrium.
JEL Classification Numbers: D50, H41.     

Retirement and social security: the roles of self-fulfilling expectations and educational investments

Countries with higher implicit taxes on continued work are associated with lower labor force participation rates of the elderly. This paper constructs a politico-economic model that accounts for this feature based on multiple, self-fulfilling expectations of agents. In this model, agents are identical at birth and can become skilled (or remain unskilled) through educational investment. When agents hold expectations of larger social security benefits, it provides a disincentive to engage in educational investment, thereby resulting in an unskilled majority. In turn, this unskilled majority supports larger social security benefits, which induces the retirement of the elderly and thus results in a lower labor force participation rate. The opposite applies when agents have expectations of smaller social security benefits in their old age.     

A second chance at success: A political economy perspective

This paper characterizes a stationary Markov-perfect political equilibrium where agents vote over income taxation that distorts educational investment. Agents become rich or poor through educational investment, and the poor have a second chance at success. The results show the following concerning the cost of a second chance. First, when the cost is low, the economy is characterized by high levels of upward mobility and inequality, and a low tax burden supported by the poor with prospects for upward mobility. Second, when the cost is high, there are multiple equilibria with various patterns of upward mobility, inequality and redistribution. Numerical examples show that the shift from a high-cost economy to a low-cost economy may reduce social welfare.     

Education and the Public Goods Type of Social Capital: Are the Well Educated Free Riding in the Provision of Public Goods?

In the previous literature, education has been found to promote the individual’s investment in social capital. However, little is known about its effect on the public goods type of social capital as many of the studies have used generalized measures of social capital. Using survey data from Japan with information on participation in neighborhood associations and community activities, we find that individuals with higher education are no more likely than those with compulsory minimum education to invest in the public goods type of social capital. Nor do we find evidence that the more educated free ride on the less educated in the provision of public goods.     

Fostering cooperation between farmers and public and private actors to expand environmentally friendly rice cultivation: intermediary functions and farmers’ perspectives

This study investigates the intermediary functions and the farmers’ perspectives in the development and implementation of agri-environmental schemes in Shiga Prefecture of Japan by employing the innovation journey analysis and the statistical analysis. The innovation journey analysis demonstrates that the prefectural government served as an ‘innovation intermediary’ to: (1) provide a clear vision of sustainable agriculture for farmers and other actors, (2) create and reinforce both technological and market niches and (3) develop actor networks involving local actors. It also identifies the following roles of the Japan Agricultural Cooperatives (JAs) and the specialist wholesaler as innovation intermediaries to: (1) develop new farming materials such as fertilizers, (2) translate and deliver practical farming knowledge for farmers and (3) establish the market of environmental-friendly rice. Statistical analysis uncovers that farmers more appreciated the supports from the JAs than those from other intermediaries to participate in the schemes. Complemented by the innovation journey analysis, our findings suggest that the keys to increasing farmers’ participation in the schemes include a clear vision and economic incentives for farmers as well as the coordination among intermediaries who have different expertise.