How Do Firms Respond to Political Uncertainty? Evidence from U.S. Gubernatorial Elections

We examine the joint response to political uncertainty along two margins: changes in real activity and voluntary disclosure. We focus on within-firm variation in exposure to ex ante competitive U.S. gubernatorial elections using data on preelection poll margins and firms’ state exposures. Despite real activity falling in the years leading up to a close election, we find that voluntary disclosure increases both in frequency and content, including mentions of risk in filings that reference states holding elections. Our tests use a decomposition of 8-K filings into real activity and voluntary disclosure to address the endogenous complementarity between these two responses. These results hold when using alternative ex ante measures of political uncertainty based on term-limited incumbents, historically competitive offices, or state legislature gridlock. Both effects of political uncertainty are stronger for firms in highly regulated industries and weaker for those least exposed to the local market, linking the real activity and disclosure responses to uncertainty.     

What Factors Lead Management to Support or Oppose Employee Participation—With and Without Works Councils? Hypotheses and Evidence from Germany

This paper provides the first econometric analysis to distinguish between works councils in establishments where managers have a positive or negative view toward employee involvement in decision making. We similarly distinguish between establishments where no council is present in which management supports or does not support worker participation. We stress the potential role of works councils and participation in motivating employees. Our theoretical analysis and empirical results from German manufacturing establishment data show that the structure of the workforce, principal‐agent problems between owners and managers, collective bargaining, direct employee involvement, human resource management practices, and market strategy and innovativeness all play important roles. Some conflicting conclusions in the works council literature may be due to the failure to distinguish among industrial relations participation regimes characterized by cooperative or uncooperative relationships between works councils and management.     

A Comparison of Dividend,Cash Flow,and Earnings Approaches to Equity Valuation*

Standard formulas for valuing the equity of going concerns require forecasting payoffs to infinity but practical analysis requires that payoffs be forecasted over finite horizons. This truncation inevitably involves often-troublesome terminal value calculations. This paper contrasts dividend discount techniques, discounted cash flow analysis, and techniques based on accrual earnings when each is applied with finite-horizon forecasts. Valuations based on average ex post payoffs over various horizons, with and without terminal value calculations, are compared with ex ante market prices to discover the error introduced by each technique in truncating the horizon. Valuation errors are lower using accrual earnings techniques rather than cash flow and dividend discounting techniques. The accounting features that make a given technique less than ideal for finite horizon analysis are also detailed. Conditions where a given technique requires particularly long forecasting horizons are identified and the performance of the alternative techniques under those conditions is examined.     

Defining the Consumer Interest: Challenges for Advocates

From its birth, The Journal of Consumer Affairs has provided a forum for government officials, consumer activists, and academics to discuss the definition of the consumer interest and how best to pursue it. In the inaugural issue of JCA, published in the summer of 1967, three of the first four articles were titled “The View from Washington” (by Deputy Assistant Secretary of Labor David Swankin), “Is It Time to Re‐Evaluate the Consumer Protection Activities of the Federal Government?” (by Consumers Union president Colston E. Warne), and “The Consumer Interest—the Real Issue” (by Professor of Marketing Robert D. Schooler). When JCA began publication in 1967, a few landmark pieces of consumer legislation had already been passed concerning pharmaceuticals, cigarettes, and motor vehicles, but the heyday of the consumer movement—and consumer research—was just beginning. In his article, Warne wrote: “The time has come, I think, for consumers and consumer movements to face some highly unpleasant problems” (p. 24). Schooler chastised the federal government for being “misdirected toward real but secondary issues” (p. 40). Swankin called for an organization and a professional journal capable of creating “an intellectual climate in which the phrases ‘consumer interest,’‘consumer economics,’ and, yes, ‘consumer information’ can be developed and can flourish” (pp. 9–10). Nearly forty years later, and long after the zenith of the U.S. consumer movement, we still face a host of consumer problems and a federal government disinclined to address them. We do, however, have a respected journal in whose pages the consumer interest and consumer policy can be examined. On April 25, 2005, the University of Utah hosted a symposium on consumer policy in honor of the retirement of Dr. John R. Burton. John, who established the consumer studies program at the University of Utah, has devoted his career to teaching, research, and service that advance the consumer interest. Seven nationally renowned speakers, including professors Monroe Friedman, Loren Geistfeld, Jeanne Hogarth, Jean Lown, and Ivan Preston, presented papers pertaining to the consumer interest. Two of the seven papers are reproduced here. The first is by Stephen Brobeck, long‐time executive director of the Consumer Federation of America (CFA) and the editor of The Encyclopedia of the Consumer Movement. Dr. Brobeck's article examines how a major consumer advocacy organization like CFA decides what public policy positions are in the consumer interest. The article applies a general framework to the specific issue of automobile fuel economy standards. In the companion piece to this article, Michael Burton, an assistant professor of political science at Ohio University and the son of the symposium's honoree, draws on his experience as a congressional aide and vice presidential staff member to describe and defend the art of compromise as it applies to consumer politics. – Robert N. Mayer, University of Utah     

REDUCING FAT IN THE U.K. DIET — SOME LEGISLATIVE FACTORS

A high fat diet has been associated with a number of clinical conditions and it is recommended that the quantity of fat in the U.K. diet be reduced. Many foodstuffs of high fat content sold in the U.K. are subject to compositional regulations. The authors illustrate how the current regulations are acting to perpetuate the high fat nature of these food items and show how amendment of the legislation would be a useful strategy leading to a reduction in fat intake.