ESTIMATING THE NON-ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES OF GREENHOUSE GAS REDUCTIONS IS HARDER THAN YOU THINK

Top-down and bottom-up models of the non-environmental consequences of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions embody different implicit theories of economic organizations. Yet neither approach is explicit in showing the detailed computations that must be traced if the activities of firms are to be described realistically. Specification of firms' computational processes leads inevitably to a consideration of potential computational limits on the behavior of organizations. It is known that solutions of some standard economic problems are not effectively computable, and that the solutions to others are computationally intractable. These fundamental computational limits have strong implications for the theory of the firm, and recognizing their existence and importance suggests new policy approaches for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. (JEL C6, D2, L2, Q4)     

The Effectiveness of Alternative Risk Assessment and Program Planning Tools in a Fraud Setting*

This study examines the impact of alternative risk assessment (standard risk checklist versus no checklist) and program development (standard program versus no program) tools on two facets of fraud planning effectiveness: (1) the quality of audit procedures relative to a benchmark validated by a panel of experts, and (2) the propensity to consult fraud experts. A between‐subjects experiment, using an SEC enforcement fraud case, was conducted to examine these relationships. Sixty‐nine auditors made risk assessments and designed an audit program. We found that auditors who used a standard risk checklist, structured by SAS No. 82 risk categories, made lower risk assessments than those without a checklist. This suggests that the use of the checklist was associated with a less effective diagnosis of the fraud. We also found that auditors with a standard audit program designed a relatively less effective fraud program than those without this tool but were not more willing to seek consultation with fraud experts. This suggests that standard programs may impair auditors' ability to respond to fraud risk. Finally, our results show that fraud risk assessment (FRASK) was not associated with the planning of more effective fraud procedures but was directly associated with the desire to consult with fraud specialists. This suggests that one benefit of improved FRASK is its relation with consultation. Overall, the findings call into question the effectiveness of standard audit tools in a fraud setting and highlight the need for a more strategic reasoning approach in an elevated risk situation.     

REVEALED INDEPENDENCE AND QUASTILINEAR CHOICE

Revealed Independence requires that revealed preferences satisfythe independence property from expected utility theory. Thiscondition is essentially the same as the quasi-linearity ofthe choice function; i.e., it is a linear operator on convexcombinations of budget sets. We demonstrate the equivalenceof the Strong and Weak Axioms of Revealed Preference for quasi-linearchoice functions with convex domains.     

The Cost of the C.A.F

Membership of the Common Market has raise the costs of some food to almost 5 times as much as comparable world prices. Why should the British housewife or taxpayer continue to subsidise inefficient continental farmers?     

Rural Adaptation in Russia: Who Responds and How Do We Measure It?

Utilizing survey data from 800 households in five regions of Russia, this article attempts to measure adaptation to reform stimuli according to socio-economic strata. While the orthodox literature has emphasized rural resistance to reform, in fact one of the main analytical obstacles is differentiating between adaptive and survival strategies. Time horizon is used as the primary criterion to distinguish between adaptive and survival behaviour. The article analyses adaptive responses by examining the use of rural credit, the operation of a household business, the enlargement of household land plots and a set of attitudes that taken together comprise an 'entrepreneurial spirit'.     

Optimal Aggregation of Money Supply Forecasts: Accuracy,Profitability and Market Efficiency

We present a general procedure for aggregating expert forecasts which exploits regularities in the structure of information within the forecaster population. Specific information structures lead to aggregation methods which adjust for additive bias, differences in individual accuracy, and correlation among forecasts. As an application, we construct composite predictions of the weekly change in the money supply from forecasts made by twenty major securities dealers, for which high positive correlation is found to be a significant characteristic. Due to instability in the information structure, our methods cannot improve on the accuracy of a simple average in this case. However, they do capture information about the correlation among money supply forecasts which is not fully impounded in short-term interest rates. Forecasts from our models accurately predict the direction of price changes for Treasury bills and Treasury bill futures after a money supply announcement.