Uncertainty,economic growth its impact on tourism,some country experiences

This paper investigates in a time series framework over the period 1995 to 2016, the impact of uncertainty on tourism. The paper explores the causal association of both political uncertainty and economic uncertainty between tourism and other macroeconomic variables for the countries of France, Greece, and the United States. The political uncertainty is proxied through terrorism index and the economic uncertainty is explained through the Economic Policy Index. The unit root test and the ARDL cointegration are applied for unknown structural breaks. In the long run uncertainty adversely affects the tourism industry in all the countries under study.     

STRATEGIC RULES ON SPECULATION IN THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

In this article we specify the conditions for profitable speculaion in the foreign exchange market with spot and forward contracts. We derive the unique strategic rules from the initial two‐choice situations in a given environment. Finally, in a more complex structure involving covered arbitrage, speculative profits are computed with iterative plays. JEL classification: F310     

HEDGING WITH INTERNATIONAL STOCK INDEX FUTURES: AN INTERTEMPORAL ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

In this paper we extend the traditional price change hedge ratio estimation method by applying the theory of cointegration to hedging with stock index futures contracts for France (CAC 40), the United Kingdom (FTSE 100), Germany (DAX), and Japan (NIKKEI). Previous studies ignore the last period's equilibrium error and short-run deviations. The findings of this study indicate that the hedge ratios obtained from the error correction method are superior to those obtained from the traditional method as evidenced by the likelihood ratio test and out-of-sample forecasts. Using the procedures developed in this paper, hedgers can control the risk of their portfolios more effectively at a lower cost.     

The Hedging Effectiveness of ECU Futures Contracts: Forecasting Evidence from an Error Correction Model

In this paper, the traditional price change hedge ratio estimation method is extended by applying the theory of cointegration in case of hedging with European Currency Unit (ECU) futures contracts. Previous studies ignore the last period's equilibrium error and short-run deviations. The findings of this study indicate that the hedge ratio estimated by the error correction method is superior to the one obtained from the traditional method, as evidenced by the likelihood ratio test and out-of-sample forecasts. Hedgers can control the risk of their portfolios more effectively at a lower cost.     

Debt, Growth and Budgetary Regimes

Within the Barro (1990) model of productive public services, but with the inclusion of public debt, we derive and characterize on the balanced growth path, a set of welfare‐maximizing fiscal rules under two budgetary regimes – one with only the standard dynamic government budget constraint, and the other involving the golden rule of public finance. We demonstrate analytically that the optimal fiscal policy differs in the two budgetary regimes considered. We also analyse two cases within the second regime: one, where the ratio of current spending to tax revenues is parametrically given, and another, where this ratio is optimally chosen by the government.     

A macroeconomic model for Nigeria, 1958–1974

The Nigerian economy has been modelled with special emphasis on the aggregate demand side. The set of “administered” interest rates have been accommodated in the usual IS/LM analysis, with the extra assumptions that the equilibrium income is attained when the disequilibrating forces in the product and the money markets are equal in magnitude but opposite in signs. The model has been tested with the available data, found to be stable, and indicate, among other things, that an increase in the crude petroleum price would improve the balance of trade barely up to three years and after that, would become adverse.     

Hospitality managers' importance perceptions of human resource practices related to employment of foreign workers in the United States

ABSTRACT

Cross-border labor mobility of hospitality employees has resulted in an increase in illegal immigrants in the workforce. The purpose of this study was to generate a list of top legal issues associated with the employment of foreign workers in the U.S. hospitality industry and to identify factors defined by the importance ratings of these issues. Snowball sampling was used to collect data from hospitality managers. Findings reveal that respondents perceive document verification to be important but may not perceive knowledge of various visa types and employment termination reporting procedures associated with employing foreign workers to be important. Managerial implications are discussed.