Improving Estimates of Inequality and Poverty from Urban China's Household Income and Expenditure Survey

In urban China the Household Income and Expenditure Survey requires respondents to keep a daily expenditure diary for a full 12-month period. This onerous reporting task makes it difficult to recruit respondents, compromising the sample. This article uses monthly expenditure data from two urban areas of China to see if data collection short-cuts, such as extrapolating to annual totals from expenditure reports in only some months of the year, would harm the accuracy of annual expenditure, inequality and poverty estimates. Replacing 12-month diaries with simple extrapolations from either one, two, four or six months would cause a sharp increase in estimates of annual inequality and poverty. This undermines international comparisons of inequality statistics because no country other than China uses such comprehensive 12-month expenditure records. But a corrected form of extrapolation, based on correlations between the same household's expenditures in different months of the year, gives much smaller errors in estimates of inequality and poverty.     

The effect of exchange rate changes on trade balances in the short and long run

Using generalized impulse response functions, this study tests for the trade J‐curve for three transitional central European countries – the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland – in their bilateral trade with respect to Germany. Our findings suggest that for each country there are some characteristics associated with a J‐curve effect: after a (real or nominal) depreciation the export‐to‐import ratio briefly drops to below its initial value within a few months and then rises to a long run equilibrium value higher than the initial one.     

An integrated analysis of the effects of local water institutions on irrigated agriculture outcomes in the arid western United States

Irrigation water rights and their governance structures constitute the foundation of local water institutions and profoundly influence water resource allocations, irrigated agricultural productivity and other consumptive water uses in the arid climate zones. This article explores the regional structures of irrigation water rights and water governance and empirically analyses the priority effects of water rights on irrigated agriculture at the micro level in Idaho, an arid and semiarid state in the western United States. We integrate a unique data set of water rights and water supplies with agricultural features and environmental characteristics into our empirical analysis. Results indicate that seniority in water resources allocation has significant, positive effects on both the average crop revenue and crop water use efficiency. Local water rights structures differ significantly in seniority and water sources from region to region. In response to the heterogeneity in local water rights structures, the aforementioned effect of allocative priority of water rights on average crop revenue per hectare and crop water productivity varies significantly, reaching up to an 87% difference, when measured across regions. In addition, the priority effects of water rights are nonlinear, which reflects the influence of historical patterns of water rights establishment on water institutions to date.     

The role of relationship quality in the stratification of vendors as perceived by customers

Companies implement preferred supplier programs to reduce their vendor relationships to a reasonable few. Consequently, vendors who do not effectively manage their customer-based relationships are strong candidates for deletion from a customer’s list of long-term suppliers. The emergence of preferred supplier programs suggests that businesses are beginning to formally recognize and reward differences between their qualified vendors. Vendor stratification is proposed as a framework for understanding the evolution of preferred vendor programs. With the growing interest in relationship marketing, a study was conducted to empirically examine the extent to which businesses use relationship quality perceptions to differentiate their qualified vendors. The findings support the notion that relationship quality is a higher-order construct that can be used as a basis for developing vendor stratification systems. The article concludes with a discussion of the managerial and research implications of the study findings. Michael J. Dorsch (Ph.D., University of Arkansas) is an associate professor of marketing at Clemson University. His research has been published in theJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science, theJournal of Business Research, and theJournal of Personal Selling and Sales Management, among others. His research interests include issues concerning relationship marketing and marketing research methods. Scott R. Swanson (Ph.D., University of Kentucky) is an assistant professor of marketing at East Carolina University. He previously spent 9 years as a purchasing executive and his research interets include issues related to services marketing, atmospherics, and marketing ethics. His research has been published in theJournal of Business to Business Marketing, theInternational Journal of Quality and Reliability Management, AMA Educators’ Proceedings, andRetailing: Theories and Practices for Today and Tomorrow. Scott W. Kelley (D.B.A., University of Kentucky) is an associate professor of marketing. His research has been published in theJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science, theJournal of Retailing, theJournal of Business Research, theJournal of Advertising, and theJournal of Personal Selling and Sales Management, among others. His research interests include issues concerning services marketing and marketing ethics.     

SLIPPAGE AND THE CHOICE OF MARKET OR LIMIT ORDERS IN FUTURES TRADING

Retail futures traders face uncertainty regarding the price they will obtain when trading. This price surprise, known as slippage, can be substantial. Using unique data from an introducing brokerage for Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat, corn, and soybean futures contracts, we quantify time-to-clear and the magnitude of slippage. We then identify factors that affect these trade quality measures. Finally, we analyze individual trader choice between market and limit orders and find that the likelihood of placing limit orders, where regulations protect traders from slippage, is greater when order and market characteristic indicate that adverse slippage is likely.     

Negative earnings,positive earnings and stock return predictability: An empirical examination of market timing

We examine the predictive ability of earnings-price ratios or yields for the S&P 500 index. We decompose the aggregate earnings-price ratio into its positive and negative components (“winners” vs “losers”) and find that the negative component has the most predictive ability. We also find that the earnings-price measures forecast both future returns and earnings growth. Our models display substantial variation in explanatory power over time with forecast power resurfacing in the latter 1990s. We conclude that to the extent that earnings-price yields predict future S&P 500 returns, the negative earnings component is the driving factor.     

How widespread are nonlinear crowding out effects? The response of private transfers to income in four developing countries

This article investigates the relationship between household income and private transfers received in developing countries. If private transfers are unresponsive to household income, there is less likelihood of expansions in public social security crowding out private transfers. Most literature finds that private transfers are unresponsive, but this may be because responses have been obscured by the methods that ignore nonlinearities. Threshold regression techniques find such nonlinearity in the Philippines and scope for serious crowding out, with 30–80% of private transfers potentially displaced for low-income households (Cox et al., 2004). To see if these nonlinear effects occur more widely, semiparametric and threshold regression methods are used to model private transfers in four developing countries – China, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and Vietnam. The results reported in this article suggest that nonlinear crowding out effects are not important features of transfer behaviour in these countries. The transfer derivatives under a variety of assumptions only range between 0 and ?0.08.     

The Relationship Between Market Efficiency and Insider Ownership in Large and Small Firms

The study examines insider ownership in large and small firms in relation to market efficiency. Recent studies have found a positive and significant relation between inside ownership and stock market performance. Such a finding is predicated upon the idea that inside ownership minimizes agency costs caused by the conflict between hired managers and shareholders. It is argued here that semi-strong form market efficiency requires that all public information, including insider ownership, be quickly impounded into the price of a stock. If that is the case, the expected present value of a change in agency cost should be incorporated into the stock price shortly after any significant change in ownership. Hence, if the estimate is unbiased, the longer-term performance of firms should not be effected by such changes. The issue is examined for both large, well-known firms and for smaller, less-known firms. The hypothesis that markets are generally efficient with respect to insider ownership information is rejected.     

Are consumers' perceptions of price–quality relationships well calibrated?

Past research has shown that, to varying degrees, consumers tend to believe price is an indicator of quality, even though there is in fact often very little correlation between objective measures of price and quality (PQ). Moreover, consumers have been observed to be poorly calibrated in their knowledge of precisely which categories exhibit the strongest association between PQ for products. Given the profound changes that have occurred in consumer markets, such as the rise of the Internet and the flood of product quality information now readily available online, the present work seeks to update this line of research. Specifically, it seeks to determine if changes in the marketplace have affected (1) consumers' perceptions of the PQ relationship; and (2) consumers' PQ calibration. Data from two sources were collected and compared: (1) Subjective ratings of the PQ relation for various common products, collected using a questionnaire format in a survey of 313 US consumers; and (2) Objective estimates of the actual PQ association of the same products, gathered from independent third‐party information providers who report both prices and rank‐ordered quality measures for each. Results indicate that consumers today (1) continue to perceive a modest positive relationship between PQ (more so for durables, less for non‐durables); and (2) are modestly calibrated for durable products. But they are much less well calibrated in the realm of non‐durables, where consumers expect a positive link between price and quality in precisely those product categories in which the relationship is actually negative. Relative to past research, the calibration of consumers has apparently ‘flipped’ from non‐durables to durables today. Potential explanations for this result include (1) the rise of the Internet as an information source for quality ratings of durables; (2) a higher level of perceived risk for durable goods purchases; (3) a greater tendency for durables to exhibit a positive correlation between actual quality and price; and (4) the rising quality level of private label brands, which may render prior price–quality perceptions for non‐durables outdated or obsolete.