Debt Relief and the Current Account: An Analysis of the HIPC Initiative

In this paper I develop a model to investigate the connection between debt relief and current account sustainability. This model can be used as a key input in assessing whether a HIPC country's real exchange rate is ‘overvalued,’ and will thus need to go through devaluation. The working of the model is illustrated for the case of Nicaragua, a country that in 2002 had one of the highest external debt to GDP ratios: almost 300 per cent. Nicaragua is the second poorest country in the Western Hemisphere (after Haiti), and for the last decade has relied very heavily on foreign assistance and aid. Moreover, in the last few years Nicaragua has run extremely large current account deficits in excess of 37 per cent of GDP during 1997‐2001 largely financed by grants, donations and migrant remittances.     

Talking by numbers — Communicated uncertainty of the ECB

Using a novel approach, this paper analyses the deliberately communicated uncertainty of the ECB to the market. Specifi cally, it semantically analyses the uncertainty expressed in offi cial ECB press statements. The analysis shows how the ECB tries to alert or appease the market with different levels of communicated uncertainty. The appeasement through low uncertainty communication levels is particularly pronounced during times of fi nancial distress. Further, the analysis shows that the ECB tried to alert the market through an increasing level of communicated uncertainty prior to the outbreak of the global fi nancial crisis.     

Leveraging sponsorship with corporate social responsibility

Sponsors increasingly engage in corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities surrounding sponsored events (e.g., the soccer World Cup and Olympic Games). This study examines how linking CSR to sponsorship affects consumer attitudes towards sponsoring brands. Schema theory suggests that consumer CSR perception and brand credibility act as serial mediators. They transfer the positive effects of a CSR-linked sponsorship strategy. These effects only occur for brands with a moderately low congruity to the sponsored event (but not for brands with a moderately high congruity to the sponsored event). Two experiments measuring (Study 1) and manipulating (Study 2) sponsor–event congruity confirm the proposed mediation mechanism for brands with a moderately low sponsor–event congruity. CSR-linked sponsorship (vs. sponsorship without CSR linkage) does not influence attitudes towards brands with a moderately high congruity to the sponsored event. The study develops theoretical and practical implications for sponsorship and CSR strategies.     

Marketingerfolg richtig messen: Optimale Kennzahlensysteme

Zusammenfassung  Wie kann man zuverl?ssige Methoden entwickeln, um die Erfolgswirkungen von Marketingma?nahmen auf den Unternehmenswert zu messen? Am Anfang steht dabei die Frage, was Marketingerfolg eigentlich ist. Eine reine Fokussierung auf die Stakeholdergruppe der Kunden reicht hier nicht aus. Andere, durch Marketing ebenfalls erreichte Interessensgruppen wie z.B. Investoren oder Mitarbeiter müssen auch betrachtet werden. Und das alles vor dem Hintergrund moderierender Kontextfaktoren wie etwa der Unternehmensstrategie oder der Branche. Dipl.-Kfm. Sascha Raithel Wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter am Institut für Marktorientierte Unternehmensführung an der Ludwig-Maximilians-Universit?t München sowie Consultant bei der Pepper GmbH in München Dipl.-Kfm. Sebastian Scharf Wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter am Institut für Marktorientierte Unternehmensführung an der Ludwig-Maximilians-Universit?t München Prof. Dr. Manfred SchwaigerVorstand am Institut für Marktorientierte Unternehmensführung an der Ludwig-Maximilians-Universit?t München     

EXCHANGE RATE MISALIGNMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

This article analyzes the theory of equilibrium real exchangerates and defines misalignment as a deviation of the real exchangerate (RER) from its equilibrium level. The role of macroeconomicpolicies is then analyzed under three alternative nominal exchangerate regimes: predetermined nominal exchange rates, floatingnominal rates, and dual or black market nominal exchange rates.This discussion points out how inconsistent macroeconomic policiesoften lead to real exchange rate misalignment. Corrective measures,including nominal devaluations and several alternative approaches,are then evaluated.      

The Relationship Between Leaders’ Group-Oriented Values and Follower Identification with and Endorsement of Leaders: The Moderating Role of Leaders’ Group Membership

In this article, we hypothesize that leaders who display group-oriented values (i.e., values that focus on the welfare of the group rather than on the self-interest of the leader) will be evaluated more positively by their followers than leaders who do not display group-oriented values. Importantly, we expected these effects to be more pronounced for leaders who are ingroup members (i.e., stemming from the same social group as their followers) than for leaders who are outgroup members (i.e., leaders stemming from a different social group than their followers). We tested our hypotheses in two studies. Results of a field study (N = 95) showed the expected relationship between leaders’ group-oriented values and followers’ identification with their leaders. A scenario study (N = 137) replicated the results and extended it to followers’ endorsement of their leaders. Overall, these findings suggest that displaying group-oriented values pays off more for ingroup than for outgroup leaders.     

Who Gains From Nominal Devaluation? An Empirical Assessment of Euro‐area Exports and Imports

In early 2013, rumours about the euro‐appreciation gained momentum, which may lead to decreases in exports and increases in imports of the member states. Therefore, we investigate the impact of changes in the nominal euro exchange rate vis‐à‐vis major currencies on export and import performance of nine different euro‐area countries. To disentangle the ‘true’ equilibrium elasticities Stein's unbiased risk estimate (SURE) system error correction models (SSECM) are estimated for nominal exchange rate changes versus the rest of the world or other major currencies. To differentiate between price level changes and changes of the nominal exchange rate, a country's export and import equation is estimated using separately the nominal rate and the relative price/unit labour cost as regressors. Results of Wald tests indicate that assuming both variables to have the same influence on exports and imports is misleading. Whether the relative price/unit labour costs elasticities are high or low depends crucially on which indicator is chosen, while the effect of nominal exchange rate changes can be estimated robustly for all countries in the sample. In particular, France and Spain are hit by a euro‐appreciation since their exports are highly exchange rate elastic. However, for France, this effect is at least partly offset by an also negative exchange rate elasticity of imports.     

Monetary Policy Independence under Flexible Exchange Rates: An Illusion?

I analyse whether countries with flexible exchange rates are able to pursue an independent monetary policy, as suggested by traditional theory. I use data for three Latin American countries with flexible exchange rates, inflation targeting and capital mobility – Chile, Colombia and Mexico – to investigate the extent to which Federal Reserve actions are translated into local central banks' policy rates. The results indicate that there is significant ‘policy contagion’ and that these countries tend to ‘import’ Fed policies. The degree of monetary policy independence is lower than what traditional models suggest.