Commodity prices and the AUD-Yen exchange rate: a real-time forecasting analysis

I study the impact of the GSCI commodity price indices on the Australian dollar-Japanese yen nominal exchange rate using a modified version of the classic monetary approach of exchange rate determination. I use a broad range of model-selection and model-averaging criteria. I find some evidence for a short-lived relationship as far as inclusions in the optimal forecasting models are concerned. In general, though, results of the Diebold-Mariano and Clark-West test show that results are not stable over the whole sample.     

Mental Health and the ADA: A Focus Group Discussion with Human Resource Practitioners

In 1997, the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) issued new guidelines to clarify implementation of the mental health regulations under the ADA. This paper explores the impact of those guidelines on human resource practices in the workplace. Focus group discussions were conducted with human resource practitioners from over a dozen medium-sized, mid-western corporations. Analysis of the focus group discussions identified four primary issues: underreporting of mental health disabilities; the impact of demographic differences on mental health; misreporting of mental health disabilities; and the impact of the environment on mental health.     

Is the diversification discount caused by the book value bias of debt?

We analyze whether the diversification discount is driven by the book value bias of corporate debt. Book values of debt may be a more downward biased proxy of the market value of debt for diversified firms, relative to undiversified firms, as diversification leads to lower firm risk. Thus, measures of firm value based on book values of debt undervalue diversified firms relative to focused firms. Our paper complements recent literature which uses market values to test the risk reduction hypothesis for a subsample of firms for which debt is traded. Alternatively, we employ market value of debt estimates for the whole firm universe. Consistent with the above hypothesis, we show that the use of book values of debt underestimates the value of diversified firms. There is no discount for mainly equity financed firms and lower distress risk and equity volatility for diversified firms. More concentrated ownership increases firm valuation.     

Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?

Comparative data for 93 countries are used to analyse the robustness of the relationship between openness and total factor productivity growth. Nine indexes of trade policy are used to investigate whether the evidence supports the view that total factor productivity growth is faster in more open economies. The results are robust to the use of openness indicator, estimation technique, time period and functional form, and suggest that more open countries experienced faster productivity growth. Although the use of instrumental variables help dealing with endogeneity, issues related to causality remain somewhat open, and require time series analyses to be adequately addressed     

Uncertainty and the Great Recession

Has heightened uncertainty been a major contributor to the Great Recession and the slow recovery in the United States? To answer this question, we identify exogenous changes in six uncertainty proxies and quantify their contributions to GDP growth and the unemployment rate. The answer is no. In total we find that increased macroeconomic and financial uncertainty can explain up to 10% of the drop in GDP at the height of the recession and up to 0.6 percentage points of the increased unemployment rates in 2009 through 2011. Our calculations further suggest that only a minor part of the rise in popular uncertainty measures during the Great Recession was driven by exogenous uncertainty shocks.     

Aligning the Mindset and Capabilities within a Business Network for Successful Adoption of Smart Services

This paper explores the synchronized change of mindset and capability within a business network that is driven by the adoption and provision of smart services. The research is implemented as an empirical multi‐case study, and the primary data include interviews and observations in seven globally operating firms. The findings identify two categories of barriers and three categories of alignment needs to successful adoption of smart services. The study combines the institutional theory and dynamic capability perspectives to make three main contributions to the research of service innovation for an improved understanding of the determinants of successful field‐level adoption of smart services. The results show that firms need to align the change of logic and capabilities within the organization and the business network to succeed in the adoption of smart services.     

Toward a Model of Word-of-Mouth in the Health Care Sector

An important source of health information is word of mouth (WOM). Nevertheless, a model describing WOM in the health care sector does not exist. The aim of this paper is to contribute to research by providing concrete suggestions for a model of word of mouth in the health care sector. A conceptual framework comprising the theory of cognitive dissonance, the theory of the strength of weak ties, and the theory of perceived risk are used as a theoretical anchor. In order to gain a more precise knowledge of WOM in the health care sector, a literature review of leading health care journals is conducted. The findings are summarized in the form of a model proposal describing the creation, spread, and impact of WOM in the health care sector. As the model summarizes the current WOM literature, it seems to be a good starting point for further research by scholars. The paper also helps practitioners to better understand WOM and integrate the WOM aspects described into their daily work.     

The effectiveness of tax incentives in attracting investment: panel data evidence from the CFA Franc zone

In this paper we investigate to what extent tax incentives are effective in attracting investment in Sub-Saharan Africa. We test the neo-classical investment theory prediction that tax incentives, by lowering the user cost of capital, raise investment. Next to tax incentives, we also estimate the impact on investment of other investment climate variables that are under direct control of the government, such as the transparency and complexity of the tax system, and the legal protection of foreign investors. In developing countries these variables might be as important as or even more important than the tax variables themselves.     

Combining predictive distributions for the statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts

Statistical post-processing techniques are now used widely for correcting systematic biases and errors in the calibration of ensemble forecasts obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models. A standard approach is the ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) method, which results in a predictive distribution that is given by a single parametric law, with parameters that depend on the ensemble members. This article assesses the merits of combining multiple EMOS models based on different parametric families. In four case studies with wind speed and precipitation forecasts from two ensemble prediction systems, we investigate the performances of state of the art forecast combination methods and propose a computationally efficient approach for determining linear pool combination weights. We study the performance of forecast combination compared to that of the theoretically superior but cumbersome estimation of a full mixture model, and assess which degree of flexibility of the forecast combination approach yields the best practical results for post-processing applications.