Trade Competitiveness and Employment: Job Creation or Job Destruction

This paper empirically examines the impact of fluctuations in international trade competitiveness on employment in the UK manufacturing sector over the period 1999–2010. We find statistically significant but economically small effects of a shock to international trade competitiveness on the level of employment. Our results show that the adjustment process in employment mainly works through job creation. We also find that compared to large firms, small firms contribute more toward job creation than job destruction. Our results that changes in GDP growth rate and average wages are significantly related to employment suggest that the UK labour market significantly responds to market forces. Finally, we find that the effect of changes in the real exchange rate on both job creation and job destruction differs between exporting and non-exporting firms.     

Seasonality of income and poverty in Bangladesh

Seasonal food deprivation in Bangladesh, locally known as Monga, sometimes rises to the level of famine during the pre-harvest period of aman rice. An analysis of household income and expenditure survey data shows that income and consumption are lower during Monga than in other seasons, and that seasonal income greatly influences seasonal consumption. Econometric estimates reject the hypothesis of perfect consumption smoothing. In the northwestern region of greater Rangpur, rural households suffer disproportionately from Monga. Seasonal differences in poverty across regions are due mainly to differences in household-specific seasonality of income and consumption. Income diversification explains the lower incidence of income seasonality observed in non-Rangpur regions. To contain seasonal hunger in greater Rangpur, public policies should promote rural income diversification together with seasonal migration. A flexible microfinance scheme that provides both production and consumption loans on flexible repayment terms could help diversify income and reduce seasonality of income and poverty.     

Microfinance and Poverty: Evidence Using Panel Data from Bangladesh

Microfinance supports mainly informal activities that oftenhave a low return and low market demand. It may therefore behypothesized that the aggregate poverty impact of microfinanceis modest or even nonexistent. If true, the poverty impact ofmicrofinance observed at the participant level represents eitherincome redistribution or short-run income generation from themicrofinance intervention. This article examines the effectsof microfinance on poverty reduction at both the participantand the aggregate levels using panel data from Bangladesh. Theresults suggest that access to microfinance contributes to povertyreduction, especially for female participants, and to overallpoverty reduction at the village level. Microfinance thus helpsnot only poor participants but also the local economy.     

The approximate purification of mixed strategies with finite observation sets

This note provides a finite result on the approximate purification of strategies in a class of two-person games.     

Approximate equilibria in markets with indivisible commodities

This paper presents results on the existence of approximate equilibria in large but finite exchange economies in which all the traders have non-convex consumption sets. As such, the paper gives a natural extension, to the finite economy, of Mas-Colell's results on existence with indivisible commodities and a continuum of agents. It also presents an approximate equilibrium theorem without any assumption of compactness or bounded non-convexity of preferences.     

Cannibalism and the Optimal Sharing of the North-East Atlantic Cod Stock: a Bioeconomic Model

This paper shows how intra-stock relations such as cannibalism and growth enhancement, determine the economically optimal sharing of a fish resource between heterogeneous harvesting agents. The sharing of resources between different vessel groups is often left for political decision making. Nonetheless, such decisions may have both biological and economic consequences. This becomes quite clear when different harvesting groups exploit different sections (age groups) of a stock that has intra-stock interactions in the form of cannibalism. A two-agent bioeconomic model with cannibalism is developed and used to determine (i) optimal annual harvest sizes (TACs) for cod, and (ii) the optimal proportion of the TAC that should be harvested by the different vessel groups in the fishery. Applying biological and economic data in a numerical procedure, and comparing the results obtained to previous studies, it is shown that intra-stock interactions such as the presence of cannibalism has a significant impact on who should take what proportion of the TAC, and hence, the standing stock size and discounted economic rent achievable. In contrast to other studies, we find that the optimal harvest requires that both trawlers and coastal vessels should harvest the fish resource. In addition, the results indicate that, from a bioeconomic perspective, the existing trawler fleet’s harvest share in the cod fishery is too high. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Enhancing food security in South Sudan: the role of markets and regional trade

South Sudan faces serious problems of food insecurity due to low levels of domestic food production, periodic droughts, widespread poverty, and since late 2013, renewed armed conflict. This article explores market price behavior using cointegration analysis and estimates the effects of production and trade shocks through multimarket model simulations. We show that market prices in the capital city, Juba, of both maize and sorghum are cointegrated with import parity prices of these cereals sourced from Uganda, consistent with observed trade flows. Model simulations, using econometrically estimated demand parameters, suggest that private sector imports of maize and wheat would greatly mitigate the potential fall in consumption in the case of a decline in domestic cereal production. Other simulations indicate that if total imports of cereals are reduced by one‐third (still more than two times the levels of food aid in 2013) because of disruptions to private market flows, domestic prices of cereals could rise by 45% or more. The article concludes that whatever measures are taken involving national food security reserves, it is crucial that government policy serves to maintain incentives for private sector imports to avoid destabilizing market supplies, domestic prices, and ultimately, food consumption of the poor.     

Exchange rate fluctuations,firm size,and export behavior: an empirical investigation

In this paper, we examine how changes in the exchange rate and its volatility affect the export behavior of manufacturing firms. We also investigate whether both exchange rate changes and exchange rate volatility affect firms of different sizes differently. Applying the two-step system generalized method of moment estimator on our data for a sample of 221 Pakistani manufacturing firms, we find that the real exchange rate depreciation has positive impacts, whereas the exchange rate volatility has negative impacts on firms’ exports. We also find that compared to large-sized firms, small- and medium-sized exporting firms are more likely to benefit from currency depreciations. Yet, regarding the effect of exchange rate volatility, we find that the adverse impact of exchange rate volatility is weaker for large-sized firms as compared to small- and medium-sized firms. Our findings confirm the presence of nonlinearity in export-deterring (favoring) effects of exchange rate volatility (depreciation) on exporting behavior depending on firm size. Pakistan should design and implement export-favoring preferential policies by emphasizing on real exchange rate stabilization and providing incentives to large firms to come into being. Small- and medium-sized enterprises should develop such export strategies that help reduce their size disadvantages, particularly in managing exchange rate risks.