Choice under uncertainty with the best and worst in mind: Neo-additive capacities

We develop the simplest generalization of subjective expected utility that can accommodate both optimistic and pessimistic attitudes towards uncertainty—Choquet expected utility with non-extreme-outcome-additive (neo-additive) capacities. A neo-additive capacity can be expressed as the convex combination of a probability and a special capacity, we refer to as a Hurwicz capacity, that only distinguishes between whether an event is impossible, possible or certain. We show that neo-additive capacities can be readily applied in economic problems, and we provide an axiomatization in a framework of purely subjective uncertainty.     

Negotiating contested visions and place-specific expectations of the hydrogen economy

This paper explores the role of the 'hydrogen economy' as a guiding vision encompassing multiple contested technological futures, value judgements and problem framings. Hydrogen visions draw upon six overarching and competing narrative themes: power and independence; community empowerment and democratisation; ecotopia; hydrogen as technical fix; inevitability and technical progress; and 'staying in the race'. In other words the hydrogen economy possesses great interpretive flexibility. This, it is argued, is the key to hydrogen's rhetorical power, allowing it to become a space in which divergent interests and agendas are promoted. Turning to issues of scale and place, the case of London is used to document the dynamics of expectations: how the open flexible guiding vision of a hydrogen economy must inevitably be re-invented and grounded in local agendas and contexts if its promise is to become realised.     

Some thoughts about referendums, representative democracy, and separation of powers

Referendums have experienced some sort of a comeback. Citizen involvement in political decisions is seen increasingly as a healthy add-on in democratic polities. While earlier writers on democratic theory often saw a danger in increased participation of citizens, more recently several authors suggest that this participation should be fostered. I argue in this paper that both sides in the debate neglect important aspects of referendums. Discussing whether direct participation by the citizens is a good or bad thing addresses only half the story. More precisely, we have to get a better idea about how referendums interact with the traditional institutions of representative democracy.     

The Consequences of Globalisation: India's Software Industry and Cross‐border Labour Mobility1

The Indian software industry is a prime example of globalisation. The industry has been characterised by large cross‐border mobility of its skilled labour force. Using a unique survey of Indian software firms, our paper quantifies the extent and impact of mobility on firm behaviour and performance. Cross‐border labour mobility in the paper refers to both temporary and permanent labour flows by Indian software professionals. The picture that emerges is of a highly mobile world in which temporary mobility has been an important characteristic of the industry. A significant number of workers have work experience abroad in a developed country. Moreover, the share of skilled workers with such experience has been positively associated with the incidence of skilled migration from the firm. This suggests network effects are at work. In terms of the impact on performance – as measured by the change in turnover per worker and the change in the employment size of the firm – the paper finds little evidence of a robust adverse effect. Further, the evidence suggests that there have been important external effects at work, as through changes in the willingness of workers to acquire skills, as well as through increased provision of educational services. These have further abated the risk of a brain drain. However, the software industry may be rather different from other industries. Our results need to be interpreted as the outcome of a particular case of skilled migration and not one necessarily representative of all types of skilled migration and source sectors.     

Accounting Information and CEO Compensation: The Role of Cash Flow from Operations in the Presence of Earnings*

We examine the role of cash flow from operations (CFO) in chief executive officer (CEO) cash compensation. We predict that CFO is contract‐relevant in the presence of earnings, and more so when (1) the quality of earnings relative to the quality of CFO as a measure of performance is low and (2) the need for CFO as a financing source is high. Our analysis is motivated principally by normative arguments and anecdotes from financial disclosures linking CFO to managerial effort and contracts, notwithstanding the traditional role of earnings in performance measurement. We find that the weight of CFO in the compensation model is positive and significant in the presence of earnings and stock returns. We also find that the relative quality of CFO compared with that of earnings has a positive (negative) impact on the weight of CFO (earnings). We further find that the relative weight of CFO is enhanced substantially when enterprise activities crucially depend on internally generated cash flow. These findings are unaltered when we include CEO age, firm size, and risk in the model and allow the coefficients to vary across industries.     

Prudence and Pragmatism in the Fiscal Stance

In this article, Simon Price argues that the government is pursuing a remarkably conservative fiscal policy. Not only has demand management been left almost entirely to the MPC, but since 1997 spending has been held down while the overall tax burden has been raised. Consequently, the relative size of the national debt is declining at a rapid rate. There are rules that are intended to govern debt policy, but they are based on less sound principles than the government argues, and may be inconsistent. Oddly, despite the emphasis on these rules, the government has announced a path for spending that makes it clear that it is in fact planning not to follow them. The government may be planning to reduce the national debt at an excessive rate. This may make sense in the short run, but is more problematic in the medium to long term. This is not to say fiscal policy should be immediately relaxed; the current low levels of private sector saving may well justify a temporarily tight fiscal stance.     

Determinants of Airport Choice in a Multi-Airport Region

The Civil Aeronautics Board was dismantled on the premise that competition and the threat of entry would restrain airline prices. If consumers do not search for low fares, then the threat of entry will have little impact. The entry of a low fare carrier will reallocate fliers within but not between airports. Telephone survey data were used to estimate probit models for the use of Baltimore–Washington International, Newark International, JFK International, and Philadelphia International Airports to evaluate the effect of low fares on consumer behavior. In airport usage, age and gender do not matter. Although survey participants reported that airfare is an important consideration, actual searching for a low fare was unimportant. The availability of non-stop flights, wait at check-in, income, and distance from home were important.     

Capital Stock and Economic Development in Hungary

This paper introduces a method of calculating physical capital stock figures in transition countries and derives data for Hungary. On the basis of international experience, we set investment and saving paths for future income levels. Confrontation of savings prospects of different sectors with investments needs leads to an economic policy analysis of the fiscal policy needed to catch up to 70 per cent of Austrian per capita income by 2030.