Forecasting UK house prices: A time varying coefficient approach

Previous studies of UK house prices, developed from the demand and supply ofhousing or from the asset market approach have been poor in terms of robustness and ex-post forecasting ability. The UK housing market has suffered a number of structural changes, particularly since the early 1980s with substantial house price increases, financial market deregulation and the removal of mortgage market constraints through competition. Consequently, models which assume that the underlying data-generating process is stable and apply constant parameter techniques tend to suffer in terms of parameter instability. This article uses the Time Varying Coefficient (TVC) methodology where the underlying data-generating process in the UK housing market is treated as unstable. The estimation results of the TVC regression of UK house prices is compared with those obtained from three alternative constant parameter regressions. Comparisons of forecasting performance suggest the TVC regression out-performs forecasts from an Error Correction Mechanism (ECM), Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and an Autoregressive Time Series regression.     

我国人力资本发展运营过程中的制度探析

人力资本发展制度存在行政性垄断、投入不足等弊端,存在市场配置机制发展滞后、不完善及分配仍以人力资本的行政定价为主等问题.造成缺陷的主要制度性根源在于人力资本产权缺失或残缺.实现制度创新,需要以人力资本产权制度为基础明晰人力资本产权,利用市场机制配置人力资本,建立以个人合法剩余索取权为基础的收入分配制度.     

Further development and sustainable utilization mode of grassland tourism resources: a case study of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China

Tourism resources are important foundation for the development of tourism industry. Grassland is not only a kind of important resource but also a great attraction to visitors. Therefore, the integrated development and sustainable utilization of grassland tourism resources are of great significance. This paper, based on the analysis of literatures and the current problems existing in grassland tourism, summarizes the speciality of grassland tourism development, deals with the problem of speciality, and raises the modes of regional development, product development and management. This paper takes Inner Mongolia, the famous grassland tourism destination as example and carries out empirical research. Based on the status quo of grassland tourism resources in Inner Mongolia, this study analyzes the character- istics of grassland tourism resources, the necessity and feasibility of integrated development, then proposes the following suggestions: idea for development, mode of development, regional cooperation, tourism products development, espe- cially the three modes of development based on the resources conditions - the mode of relying on market, the mode of combination aggregation and the mode of relying on quality.     

我国区域竞争力的差异与对策

本文对我国区域竞争力的区位差异进行分析,指出东、西部地区区域竞争力差异的原因,提出提高西部区域竞争力的途径。     

从国营到国有——国家股转让效果分析

本文系统地研究了从1997年到2000年在上海证券交易所和深圳证券交易所发生的国有资产局将控制权转让给国有独资企业和国有法人企业的案例数据。研究发现国家股控制权转让后公司业绩有了明显的改善,同时证券市场对国家股转让行为做出了积极的反应,产生了明显的超额收益。     

小城镇经济辐射区研究--以重庆为例

本文以重庆为例,分析了小城镇经济辐射区范围的形成受行政范围、自然条件、人口规模、城镇用地规模、经济结构、经济规模、交通和市场等八个主要因素的影响,指出小城镇经济辐射能力弱、辐射范围小是欠发达地区普遍存在的现实问题,并在此基础上提出了相关建议.     

职业流动中的性别差异:审视中国城市劳动力市场

本文旨在回答以下问题:(1)在中国城市劳动力市场中,职业流动性别差异以何种模式体现?(2)职业流动性别差异主要受哪些因素决定?文章使用第二次中国妇女社会地位调查数据,预测人力资本、家庭因素、社会资本、市场结构转型对男女职业流动的影响。实证结果表明:在经济转型期间,人力资本因素并不能完全解释我国职业流动的性别差异,而家庭特征、社会资本以及劳动力市场结构变动都对职业流动性别差异产生显著影响。     

区域发展差异测度及协调对策——以山西为例

区域差异是指在一定时期特定区域之间,经济发展上存在的不均衡现象.遵循系统性、科学性、可操作性与可比性原则,结合山西经济发展的实践构建了测度山西经济综合实力的指标体系,并采用因子分析法对各区域的经济发展水平予以客观评价.同时运用聚类分析法将经济区域分为经济发达区、经济次发达区和经济欠发达区三类,在对其进行分析之后,提出了推动经济协调发展的一系列具体对策.     

让所得税政策成为国家促进企业自主创新的主动力

当今,企业的自主创新科技开发,不但直接关系到企业的核心竞争力,而且关系到国家经济现代化发展的大局。该文认为,对科技创新型企业,政府对其科技创新资金的投入,运用所得税优惠或减免政策,可以有力地鼓励和支持企业的科技创新活动,并提出了5项具体政策性建议。     

非均衡的经济动态模型

本文旨在按现实世界的本来面目建立一个非均衡的内生经济动态模型。在这个模型中 ,源于部门内和部门间关系的内生变量导致资本市场、消费品市场上产量和价格的波动。市场的非均衡过程、存货调节机制以及经济人的最优行为和适应性行为是基于对现实世界的观察进行模拟的。静态性质及其稳定性是作为一般市场动态过程的特例加以讨论的。