THE RISK IMPLICATIONS OF FORECAST ERRORS OF BANK EARNINGS, 1976–1986

The forecast errors arising from security analysts' predictions of commercial bank earnings are investigated here and compared with the earnings forecast errors associated with savings and loans, other financial services organizations, and a random sample of nonfinancial firms from 1976 to 1986. Although bank earnings forecast errors did increase over 1976–1986, analyses suggest that the rise was less than at other industries considered in the study. The increase in forecast errors appears to be centered at multinational banking organizations, with only limited increases in earnings forecast errors at regional banks.     

Strategy content and the research process: A critique and commentary

The purpose of this paper is to encourage discussion on the ‘state-of-the-science’ in strategy content research. We present a view of an interactive research process and argue that strategy content research would benefit from (1) more carefully developed theoretical work; (2) more theory-driven data analysis; and (3) less emphasis on the immediate applicability of results.     

Food Aid: A Cause of Development Failure or an Instrument for Success?

The role of food aid in furthering the economic developmentof poor countries and in alleviating the adverse effects onthe poor of structural and sectoral adjustment programs is discussed.A simple analytical framework for evaluating the incentive andwelfare impact of food aid is suggested. Domestic and internationalmarkets for food historically have been subject to severe distortions,leading to ever-growing food stocks in some, mainly rich, countrieswhile in others, largely poor, many cannot afford to consumeenough food. The possible impact of distortion-free global foodmarkets is sketched. The use of surplus food for payment ofwages in rural works programs has often been proposed as a meansto create productive assets while alleviating poverty. Usingan applied general equililbrium model of the Indian economy,it is shown that a well-designed and efficiently implementedfood-for-work program can virtually eliminate abject povertyin India at a modest cost. Experience with food aid in severalother countries is also briefly discussed.     

Ensuring Daughter Survival in Tamil Nadu,India

The South Indian state of Tamil Nadu is a relatively recent addition to the list of Indian states to experience the phenomenon of “missing girls”. Nonetheless, the government and non-governmental organizations in the state have been active for some time in collecting data to track gender differences in survival and in introducing interventions to prevent daughter elimination. Against this background, this article has two aims. First, it provides a temporal and spatial analysis of patterns of daughter deficits in Tamil Nadu over the period 1996–2003. Second, it undertakes an examination of the modus operandi, underlying assumptions, strengths and weaknesses of various interventions and assesses their effect on daughter elimination.     

Supply chain immune system: concept,framework, and applications

Behind every product and service is a supply chain. These supply chains are extremely complex and vulnerable to multifarious risks that threaten their performance and stability, ranging from simple machine or truck breakdowns to catastrophic natural disasters. This paper presents a novel framework for supply chain risk management based on the analogy of the biological immune system, which has multiple layers of increasing sophistication to neutralise a variety of risks. The various layers include: physical barriers, innate response, and adaptive response. The working of the framework is explained with an illustrative semiconductor supply chain. Applications of this framework include short-term disruption response and long-term immunisation, providing planner and manager level insights respectively.     

The role of quality in e-procurement performance: An empirical analysis

While the adoption and use of e-procurement has been prevalent in supply chain management, there is very little research examining the critical role of quality in this context. e-Procurement promises to cut operational costs all across the supply chain, but it also raises the expectations of buyers posing a challenge for buyer satisfaction and supply chain performance. Using the theoretical lens of Dynamic Capabilities Theory and Resource-Based View, we postulate that online information and process act as resources that result in logistics fulfillment capabilities. These capabilities in turn lead to satisfaction with e-procurement. We estimate our research model using structural equation modeling with survey data collected from 131 purchasing and procurement managers. We empirically examine these linkages by analyzing data collected from procurement managers. Our results indicate strong support for the relationships between information flow process quality, logistics fulfillment quality processes, and e-procurement satisfaction performance. One of the surprising findings of our study is that fulfilled order timeliness has a significantly greater impact on satisfaction than fulfilled order accuracy. This finding points to the increasingly important role that the dimension of time plays in today's competitive environment.     

Residual Claims in Co‐operatives: Design Issues

This paper examines issues in the design of a co‐operative member's contractual relationship with the other agents (including the remaining members) using organizational economics. The paper assumes that the central defining characteristic of a co‐op is the residual claim specification. Agency theory identifies certain inherent problems of the co‐op form, the horizon problem, common property problem, and non‐transferability. Non‐transferability both reduces the incentive to monitor and imposes limits on portfolio diversification. This paper argues that features such as claim incompleteness and non‐transferability are not inherent to the co‐op but may be transaction‐cost economizing. The paper also argues that the pre‐emptive payoff feature by which the residual claimants (the co‐op members) also become fixed payoff agents can affect the risk of other agents, and is an important determinant of co‐op risk. A co‐op may have more than one potential residual claim base. Five generic design choices are available for handling possible multiple claim bases: battleground, pre‐specified allocation, limited return, alignment, and fixed payoff. The paper uses the design of residual claims in sugar co‐ops to show how a co‐op can partly overcome some of the problems identified by agency theory. This illustration ties together the issues of claim incompleteness and non‐transferability, pre‐emptive payoff, and multiple claim bases.     

Coupon characteristics and redemption intentions: A segment-level analysis

The authors investigate how different segments of consumers react to different coupon characteristics, such as face value and method of distribution. They utilize a latent segmentation approach to identify the underlying segments. The empirical analysis suggests that different segments of consumers place varying emphasis with regard to economic benefits, psychic benefits, effort costs, and substitution costs. A further examination of the derived segments with respect to consumer correlates such as psychological, attitudinal, behavioral, and demographic characteristics reveals that coupon-related consumer characteristics, rather than demographics, exhibit significant and meaningful differences across these segments. Implications of the segment-level analysis for evaluating coupon drops and managing promotional expenditures are also discussed. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.