The binary policy model

We introduce a model of electoral competition with office-motivated candidates who are exogenously committed to particular positions on some issues, while they choose positions for the remaining issues. A position is majority-efficient if a candidate cannot make a majority of the electorate better off, given his fixed positions. We characterize existence conditions for majority-efficient positions. The candidates' fixed positions in our framework imply that only some voters are “swing voters,” and we analyze how the distribution of swing voters determines whether candidates choose majority-efficient positions. We also analyze plurality and runoff elections with multiple candidates in our framework.     

The projected costs and benefits of water diversion from and to the Sultan Marshes (Turkey)

The Sultan Marshes in the Develi Basin, Anatolia, one of twelve internationally important wetlands of Turkey, have been severely affected by the construction of an irrigation project in 1988. Intensive use of surface and ground water in irrigation has caused more than a 1 m decline in water levels and has affected the wetlands' ecological characteristics. Previous studies indicate that Sultan Marshes will need more water to restore viable ecological conditions. In this study, we analyze how economic benefits from agriculture and wetlands would be affected if moderate amounts of water were diverted from agriculture back to wetlands in the Develi Basin. By estimating total and marginal costs and benefits associated with water diversions, we determined the optimum or economically-efficient amount of water diversion. When only direct-use values of the wetland (animal grazing, plant harvesting, and ecotourism) were included in the analysis, the optimum amount of water diversion to the wetlands was found to be 5.2 million m³ year^− 1 (165 L sec^− 1), which compares to about 62 million m³ year^− 1 (1,957 L sec^− 1) used in irrigation. When wastewater treatment benefits (an indirect-use value) were added, the optimum amount rose to 7 million m³ year^− 1. Overall, the analysis showed that water diversion from agriculture to the Sultan Marshes is economically preferable.     

Real option valuation of public sector R&D investments with a down-and-out barrier option

This paper presents a real options approach for valuing public-sector research and development projects, using a down-and-out barrier option. Specifically, it considers the potential savings to the tax payer for investing in technology to be purchased by a national government. The valuation is performed with stretched trinomial lattices. Government-driven demand for this technology is equated with the underlying asset, and valuation measured in terms of potential government savings. Two variables, volatility of demand for the technology and unit cost, are treated as uncertain. A Monte Carlo simulation is performed to understand the effects of these variables on the valuation. Other variables are estimated, and a parametric analysis is performed to understand the effects of these variables. To illustrate how this approach could be used, the development of a new sensor, to be used in large networks that track greenhouse gas fluxes, is considered as an example.     

Exact linear rank tests for two‐sample equivalence problems with continuous data

The present paper introduces a methodology for the semiparametric or non‐parametric two‐sample equivalence problem when the effects are specified by statistical functionals. The mean relative risk functional of two populations is given by the average of the time‐dependent risk. This functional is a meaningful non‐parametric quantity, which is invariant under strictly monotone transformations of the data. In the case of proportional hazard models, the functional determines just the proportional hazard risk factor. It is shown that an equivalence test of the type of the two‐sample Savage rank test is appropriate for this functional. Under proportional hazards, this test can be carried out as an exact level α test. It also works quite well under other semiparametric models. Similar results are presented for a Wilcoxon rank‐sum test for equivalence based on the Mann–Whitney functional given by the relative treatment effect.     

Der Lehrstuhl für Allgemeine Betriebswirtschaftslehre — insbesondere Rechnungswesen und Controlling — der Helmut-Schmidt-Universität,Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg

Ohne Zusammenfassung