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71.
A framework for the detection of change points in the expectation in sequences of random variables is presented. Specifically, we investigate time series with general distributional assumptions that may show an unknown number of change points in the expectation occurring on multiple time scales and that may also contain change points in other parameters. To that end we propose a multiple filter test (MFT) that tests the null hypothesis of constant expectation and, in case of rejection of the null hypothesis, an algorithm that estimates the change points.The MFT has three important benefits. First, it allows for general distributional assumptions in the underlying model, assuming piecewise sequences of i.i.d. random variables, where also relaxations with regard to identical distribution or independence are possible. Second, it uses a MOSUM type statistic and an asymptotic setting in which the MOSUM process converges weakly to a functional of a Brownian motion which is then used to simulate the rejection threshold of the statistical test. This approach enables a simultaneous application of multiple MOSUM processes which improves the detection of change points that occur on different time scales. Third, we also show that the method is practically robust against changes in other distributional parameters such as the variance or higher order moments which might occur with or even without a change in expectation. A function implementing the described test and change point estimation is available in the R package MFT. 相似文献
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Stefan Gössling 《Journal of Sustainable Tourism》2018,26(2):292-306
Learning is often a central element of tourism. Tourists can learn actively, i.e. with a specific purpose, as well as passively through the comparison of values, norms and customs. It has been argued that travel supports active learning that has positive outcomes for sustainability, for instance, in the context of conservation. Yet, the complexity of active and passive learning processes and their outcomes for environmental sustainability and sustainable lifestyles remain insufficiently understood. Against this background, the paper discusses selected learning outcomes for transportation (air travel), accommodation (hotels) and activities (theme park visits). Findings suggest that “desirable” learning (defined as pro-sustainable development learning) in tourism may be very limited, while in particular, passive learning processes which redefine social norms frequently have outcomes that are largely detrimental to sustainable lifestyles. They include forms of moral licensing, the diffusion of responsibilities as well as the attenuation of the negative consequences of travel. Given the economic, social and cultural importance of tourism vís-a-vís its global implications for environmental sustainability, learning outcomes in tourism deserve to be studied in greater detail, while strategies need to be devised to enhance sustainable learning effects. 相似文献
74.
Dr. Stefan Jarolimek Arthur Dubowicz B.A. Janine Greyer B.A. Julia Kunkel B.A. Roman Obst B.A. Alexander Sängerlaub B.A. Christin Schink B.A. Tobias Thobaben B.A. Mandy Vogt B.A. 《Publizistik》2010,55(4):405-425
In the second half of 2009, the entire media agenda in Germany was dominated by the swine flu, next to the German Federal Parliament elections. Criticism was voiced in the media against the pharmaceutical industry for lobbying the nationwide swine flu vaccination, which was widely considered nothing but a product of the industry’s lobbying power. In order to avoid the usual interviews with lobbyists, we attempted to apply a new methodological framework approach in analysing lobbying processes and key stakeholders in the public sphere—and outside. Crucial to the diversified approach, which involves quantitative content analysis of media coverage and press releases, are interviews with journalists, lobbyists’ network analysis and internet research on biographies. Although a conspiracy could not be conclusively proven, the results do indicate associations that validate the criticism of the industry’s lobbying activities. 相似文献
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The impacts of international tourism demand on economic growth of small economies dependent on tourism 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper studies the impacts on economic growth of a small tourism-driven economy caused by an increase in the growth rate of international tourism demand. We present a formal model and empirical evidence. The ingredients of the dynamic model are a large population of intertemporally optimizing agents and an AK technology representing tourism production. The model shows that an increase in the growth of tourism demand leads to transitional dynamics with gradually increasing economic growth and increasing terms of trade. In our empirical application, an econometric methodology is applied to annual data of Antigua and Barbuda from 1970 to 2008. We perform a cointegration analysis to look for the existence of a long-run relationship among variables of economic growth, international tourism earnings and the real exchange rate. The exercise confirms the theoretical findings. 相似文献
77.
This study explores the properties and development of the matching technology in the Czech Republic during the transition to a market economy. Nonparametric additive modelling allows us to assess flexible functional forms, which comprise for instance CES and trans-log specifications. This enables us to evaluate the matching process locally for each combination of unemployment and vacancies rather than being restricted to global coefficients. Special interest is devoted to analysis and economic determinants of regional variation in the returns to scale of the matching function. Non-linearities are found in the partial adjustment process of unemployment outflows, and a negative coefficient on vacancies in some years. Moreover, increasing returns to scale in job-matching are found locally. Returns to scale are found to be negatively correlated to the share in employment in services and to outmigration, positively correlated to the employment share in industry, the unemployment rate and various measures of active labour market policies. 相似文献
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Stefan Haugrund 《Wirtschaftsdienst》2013,93(9):643-647
E-mobility technology is commonly expected to fully meet future mobility demands. However, during the next two or three decades, the number of vehicles powered by an internal combustion engine (ICE) will not only remain high but will probably increase in absolute numbers. Oil as the dominant energy source for transportation purposes is limited, and it is expected that e-mobility will not be able to substitute the demand for ICE vehicles. Renewable liquid energy sources will be needed to ensure future mobility. 相似文献