Robust anomalies? A close look at accrual‐based trading strategy returns

The last 40 years have seen an extensive literature documenting so‐called anomalies in major capital markets. Evidence of ‘abnormal’ returns associated with trading strategies based on readily observable phenomena such as accounting‐based data involves experimental design choices that can be expected to influence the results. We show how evidence of an accrual anomaly in Australia is sensitive to research design specifications such as the choice of proxy for total accruals; the definition of abnormal returns (i.e. the return generating model); the impact of data trimming as a response to exceptionally large returns; and the choice between value and equal weighting of returns. We show that research design choices do matter and help reconcile conflicting prior evidence of any accrual anomaly in Australia. More broadly, our results suggest the need for caution in drawing inferences from trading strategy tests which claim to identify anomalies.     

Growth and inequality: Dependence on the time path of productivity increases (and other structural changes)

This paper examines the significance of the time path of a given productivity increase on growth and inequality. Whereas the time path impacts only the transitional paths of aggregate quantities, it has both transitional and permanent consequences for wealth and income distribution. Hence, the growth-inequality tradeoff generated by a given discrete increase in productivity contrasts sharply with that obtained when the same productivity increase occurs gradually. The latter can generate a Kuznets-type relationship between inequality and per-capita income. Our results suggest that economies with similar aggregate structural characteristics may have different outcomes for income and wealth inequality, depending on the nature of the productivity growth path.     

Input–Output Structural Decomposition Analysis: A Critical Appraisal

Over the past decade, input–output structural decomposition analysis (SDA) has developed into a major analytical tool. We review the development of SDA and its relationship to other methodologies. We present the fundamental principles of alternative approaches to deriving SDA estimating equations and explore the various decompositions of changes in IO tables. We also identify several complications and unresolved issues. Most importantly, we find that a rigorous grounding in economic theory is lacking for SDA, but we are able to offer some suggestions as to how it might be established.     

You should know better! Do health students have different risk attitudes to unplanned pregnancy and sexually transmitted diseases?

Because healthcare professionals are in the best position to assess, assist and educate those participating in risky sexual behaviour, understanding if (and how) their risk attitudes differ from the wider population is of vital importance. In this study, we explore university health students’ risk attitudes towards unplanned pregnancy and sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). We examine whether university students pursuing health-related degrees, who hypothetically should have more exposure to and understanding of the risks associated with unplanned pregnancy and STD, have more risk averse attitudes to sexual behaviour. We find that health students’ sexual attitudes are significantly more risk averse than those of their nonhealth peers in relation to STDs but not unplanned pregnancy. In line with previous research, age and no previous sexual history (virginity) appear to increase risk-averse attitudes to both unplanned pregnancy and STDs. Moreover, males and singles are more risk seeking in their sexual attitudes. These findings suggest that, because unplanned pregnancy and STDs are ongoing global issues, further research is warranted into the risk attitudes of those healthcare professionals most able to provide education and support for individuals participating in risky sexual behaviour.     

The take-up of means-tested income support

Many studies have identified that eligible claimants do not participate in means-tested income support programs. We examine the determinants of the decision to take-up social assistance in Canada using the 1997 Canadian Out of Employment Panel dataset. Using a conditional maximum likelihood approach to take account of the potential endogeneity of the level of benefits available to potential claimants, we find that benefit levels and recent receipt of Social Assistance (SA) are important determinants of the take-up decision. The results are important for the fiscal implications of changing benefit levels as the take-up rate is systematically related to the benefits potential recipients are entitled to receive. Further, it suggests that stigma and transaction costs associated with program use are important in explaining the take-up decision.     

Technological convergence, R&D, trade and productivity growth

This paper analyses productivity growth in a panel of 14 United Kingdom manufacturing industries since 1970. Innovation and technology transfer provide two potential sources of productivity growth for a country behind the technological frontier. We examine the roles played by research and development (R&D), international trade, and human capital in stimulating each source of productivity growth. Technology transfer is statistically significant and quantitatively important. While R&D raises rates of innovation, international trade enhances the speed of technology transfer. Human capital primarily affects output through private rates of return (captured in our index of labour quality) rather than measured TFP.     

The price of fear: Estimating the financial cost of bullying and harassment to the NHS in England

Using a spectrum of measures, this paper estimates some of the financial costs of bullying and harassment to the NHS in England. By means of specific impacts resulting from bullying and harassment to staff health, sickness absence costs to the employer, employee turnover, diminished productivity, sickness presenteeism, compensation, litigation and industrial relations costs, we conservatively estimate bullying and harassment to cost the taxpayer £2.281 billion per annum.     

Discretionary and Non-Discretionary Revisions of Loss Reserves by Property-Casualty Insurers: Differential Implications for Future Profitability, Risk and Market Value

We develop and estimate a PC-industry specific model in which proxies for both discretion and non-discretion are used to partition loss reserve revisions into discretionary and non-discretionary components. The use of such proxies enables us to test directional hypotheses about the relations between the revision components and future profitability, risk and market value. We predict and find that discretionary revisions are negatively associated with future profitability, positively associated with firm risk, and negatively associated with market-to-book ratios. We predict and find that non-discretionary revisions are positively associated with future profitability and risk but are not associated with market-to-book ratios.     

Causal ordering and ‘The bank lending channel’

The bank lending channel implies the Federal Reserve can influence real income by controlling the level of intermediated loans. Using the notion of causality developed by Simon (1953) and the causal order methodology developed by Hoover (1990), I test for an operative bank lending channel in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. I find loans did cause real income; there is evidence that a bank lending channel did exist in the 1960s. The data appears to show, however, that by the early 1990s the bank lending channel was no longer operative. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.