Comparison of Cramer–Rao lower bounds of variances for at least equal protection of respondents

In this paper, a new randomized response model is proposed, which is shown to have a Cramer–Rao lower bound of variance that is lower than the Cramer–Rao lower bound of variance suggested by Singh and Sedory at equal protection or greater protection of respondents. A new measure of protection of respondents in the setup of the efficient use of two decks of cards, because of Odumade and Singh, is also suggested. The developed Cramer–Rao lower bounds of variances are compared under different situations through exact numerical illustrations. Survey data to estimate the proportion of students who have sometimes driven a vehicle after drinking alcohol and feeling over the legal limit are collected by using the proposed randomization device and then analyzed. The proposed randomized response technique is also compared with a black box technique within the same survey. A method to determine minimum sample size in randomized response sampling based on a small pilot survey is also given.     

微观金融健康可以提高企业的生存率吗?——“新常态”背景下经济持续健康发展的微观视角解读

本文选取2003~2007年中国制造业771434家样本企业建立微观面板数据,采用生存分析中的互补双对数模型,深入考察企业微观金融健康对企业生存的潜在决定性影响;同时又根据中国企业出口高参与度这一典型特征事实,进一步考虑了企业的国际化成长在上述影响中的调节作用;最后又根据中国企业所有制特点考察了不同所有制类型企业的这种作用关系的差异。结果表明,企业的微观金融健康状况对其存活率有着显著的正面影响。进一步细分所有制类型的分类分析表明,国有和非国有两类企业各自的国际化成长,通过不同的微观金融健康指标进一步显著降低了企业经营失败的概率。在此基础上,针对当前"新常态"背景下如何提高中国企业的市场生存能力、实现企业的可持续健康发展,提出了有针对性的政策建议。     

The cost-effectiveness of delayed-release dimethyl fumarate for the treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis in Canada

Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS) causes significant disability and diminished quality-of-life. Delayed-release dimethyl fumarate (DMF; also known as gastro-resistant DMF) is a new oral treatment for relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) approved in the US, Australia, Canada, and Europe. Objectives: A cost-effectiveness model was developed to compare the health economic impact of DMF against other disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) as first-line RRMS treatment from a Canadian Ministry of Health perspective. Methods: A Markov cohort model was developed to simulate patients’ progression through health states based on the Kurtzke Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) over a life-time horizon. Patients entered the model based on a distribution of baseline EDSS scores, from which they could progress to higher or regress to lower EDSS state, or remain in the same state. Relapses could occur at any EDSS score. Results from a mixed-treatment comparison were used to inform model inputs for disease progression and relapse rates per treatment. Costs included direct medical costs stratified by EDSS score. Utilities were accrued based on time spent in each EDSS state. Results: Compared with glatiramer acetate, DMF yielded 0.528 incremental quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) at an incremental cost of $23 338 Canadian dollars (CAD), resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of CAD $44 118/QALY. The ICER for DMF compared with Rebif 44?mcg was CAD $10 672. Results were consistent across a wide range of one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Conclusions: Based on traditional cost-effectiveness thresholds in Canada (CAD $50 000–60 000), DMF can be considered a cost-effective option compared to other first-line DMTs.     

China and Natural Resource Curse in Developing Countries: Empirical Evidence from a Cross‐country Study

China's rising demand for natural resources and its growing presence in many poor and resource‐rich countries have been criticized for promoting neo‐colonialism in the 21st century. Using panel data for 135 developing countries from 1995 to 2007, the present paper empirically evaluates the validity of such claims. Our findings do not support the resource curse thesis in the areas of industrialization and economic growth. Moreover, the effect of resources is conditional on the initial quality of political institutions in a country.     

Is There Excess Liquidity in China?

In this paper, we developed the recursive unit root tests proposed by Phillips et al. (2013) and used them to identify the beginning and the end of potential excess liquidity in the Chinese monetary market during the period from 1992 to 2013. The result indicates that excess liquidity existed from the third quarter of 2002 to 2013. The analysis shows that since 2003, the inflationary pressure of excess liquidity has remained high. We provide evidence supporting the money illusion hypothesis in China. The recursive unit root test is suited to practical implementation with time series and delivers a consistent date‐stamping strategy for determining the origination and termination of multiple bubbles. Simulations show that the test significantly improves discriminatory power and leads to distinct power gains.     

用户参与创新与企业激励的信号传递博弈模型构建

论文从不完全信息博弈的角度出发,运用博弈论的相关理论与方法构建用户参与创新与企业激励的信号传递博弈模型,探讨企业在激励用户参与创新过程中双方的博弈行为选择和博弈均衡存在的条件,基于博弈分析的结果,针对企业如何有效地激励用户参与创新提出对策与建议。     

特征点匹配对预筛选的快速运动背景配准

针对运动背景下的运动目标检测实时性要求高的问题,提出了特征点匹配对预筛选的快速运动背景匹配,通过配准运动背景,然后通过帧间差分法提取运动目标。该算法首先利用Harris算子提取背景图像的Harris特征点,然后对Harris特征点进行匹配得到匹配对,通过K-means聚类算法对特征点对进行预筛选,预筛选后的特征点对利用改进的随机样本一致算法(PROSAC)计算放射变换矩阵,最后对背景图像进行变换配准。实验仿真表明,该算法极大地提高了运动背景匹配速度。     

畜禽粪便中残留四环素类抗生素和重金属的污染特征及其控制

兽用抗生素和微量重金属作为饲料添加剂广泛用于畜禽养殖业，但超量使用是导致畜禽粪便中高浓度抗生素和重金属残留的根本原因。随着我国畜禽养殖业的规模化发展，畜禽粪便中残留的四环素类抗生素和重金属（铜、锌、砷）及其复合污染对生态环境和人类健康构成了巨大的潜在威胁。针对这种状况，总结了我国四环素类抗生素（包括四环素、土霉素和金霉素）和微量重金属元素（铜、锌、砷）在畜禽粪便中的残留量及其区域分布特征，并概述了这两类物质在畜禽粪便生物处理过程（堆肥和厌氧消化）中的转化、降解及其影响。畜禽粪便中残留的抗生素和重金属可导致环境中出现耐药菌与抗性基因，是环境与健康领域的又一重大挑战，其影响不容忽视。     

Empirical study of destination loyalty and its antecedent: the perspective of place attachment

Due to the increasing competition in the leisure and tourism market, loyalty-related studies and researches have been gaining attention. This empirical research explores the formation of destination loyalty from the interaction of visitors with hot-spring resorts (place attachment) and examines the relationship between such a loyalty and its antecedents. Based on an attitude framework, this study conceptualizes place dependence, place identity, and behavioural intention as the tripartite framework of destination loyalty. Using the covariance structure analysis, empirical results indicated that the service quality–satisfaction–loyalty model is supported and tourist satisfaction completely mediates the effect of service quality on place dependence, place identity, and behavioural intention.     

Global–local relationships and governance issues at the Great Wall World Heritage Site,China

Heritage preservation and tourism use are inevitably intertwined at heritage sites and are characterized by both symbioses and tensions, particularly at World Heritage Sites, where international initiatives interact with local priorities. The international designation impacts heritage preservation, tourism development and community well-being at the local level, especially in developing countries. This paper examines global–local relationships, as well as involvement and governance at intermediate scales, and their implications for preservation and development at Badaling Great Wall World Heritage Site in Beijing, China, through examinations of its management structure, heritage preservation and development plans, and the opinions of the local business community. Interviews were conducted with key officials of the Management Office and questionnaire surveys were distributed with local business operators. It is shown that multiple stakeholders operate in a hierarchical, multi-departmental management structure. International linkages are weak and via central government. Positive economic impacts from tourism are highly valued. High awareness of heritage preservation and positive attitudes toward tourism are identified among local business operators with relatively high tolerance for negative environmental impacts. Potential conflicts between global priorities by World Heritage designation and local needs for tourism development are illustrated. Practical implications for heritage and tourism planning and management are discussed.