A closer look at return predictability of the US stock market: evidence from new panel variance ratio tests

This paper examines the return predictability of the US stock market using portfolios sorted by size, book-to-market ratio and industry. We use novel panel variance ratio tests, based on the wild bootstrap proposed in this paper, which exhibit desirable size and power properties in small samples. We have found evidence that stock returns have been highly predictable from 1964 to 1996, except for a period leading to the 1987 crash and its aftermath. After 1997, stock returns have been unpredictable overall. At a disaggregated level, we find evidence that large-cap portfolios have been priced more efficiently than small- or medium-cap portfolios; and that the stock returns from high-tech industries are far less predictable than those from non-high-tech industries.     

Exchange Rate Regime and Demand for Reserves: Evidence from Kenya,Mexico and Philippines

This paper empirically investigates the demand for international reserves (and foreign exchange reserves) during fixed and floating exchange rates periods in three developing countries: Kenya, Mexico and Philippines. Based on theoretical models, three factors are identified as important for the demand of international reserves and foreign reserves: average propensity to import, volume of imports and variability of reserves. The paper employs the cointegration methodology and error correction method to investigate the relationships. Cointegration tests results indicate a reliable long-run stationary relationship between the international reserves (and foreign exchange reserves) and the stated explanatory variables across countries and sub-periods of fixed and clean float. The error correction results indicate causality from the explanatory variables to the reserves during both the short and long run. This is true during both the fixed and the floating periods.

High level of education builds up strong relationship between organizational culture and organization performance in Pakistan

Organizational culture is an important aspect to be considered by dynamic organizations in order to develop some competitive advantage to ensure enhanced organizational performance. This study aims to elaborate the dimensions of cultural construct in organizations of diversified sectors and their implications in Pakistan. Ten organizations were selected for the study. Four hundred and seventy eight questionnaires were received from these organizations. The questionnaires consisted of three parts, of these, the first part had nine elements that were related to organization and personal profile of the respondents, whereas the second part consisted of 60 elements of cultural construct, namely mission, adaptability, consistency, and involvement. In the third part, dependent variable appears as organization performance and was evaluated by asking eight questions. Results are revealed in two models: according to the first model, organization performance increases from negative 56% to positive 92% due to organizational culture with respect to education. And the second model is also significant at the 95% of confidence level (p < 0.05), and there is a positive relationship between independent and dependent variables. Organizational culture is an essential part of organizational success. Core organizational values typically emphasize special themes such as performance excellence, innovation, social responsibility, worker involvement, and quality of work life. Literacy rate in Pakistan is far below the literacy rate in developed countries. Educated employees play an important role in enhancing organizational performance, particularly in corporate setup. To measure affects of education on organizational performance through its construct involvement, consistency, adaptability, and mission have been endeavored in this study.     

A relational framework for international transfer of diversity management practices

The aim of this paper is to propose that a relational framework, which is underpinned by a contextual and multilevel conceptualisation of diversity management, can help international transfer of diversity management policies and practices. We argue that the mainstream single-level conceptualisations of diversity management within the territory of legal or organisational policy fail to capture the relational interplay of structural- and agentic-level concerns of equality. Consequently, individual choices, organisational processes, and structural conditions – all of which collectively account for unrelenting power disparity and disadvantage within social and employment contexts – remain generally under explored. The paper proposes a relational framework that bridges the divide between macro-national, meso-organisational and micro-individual levels of analyses to arrive at a more comprehensive, realistic and context-specific framing of diversity management, which can overcome the difficulties of international transfer.     

The tourism-led growth hypothesis: empirical evidence from Turkey

In the economic growth literature, the contribution of tourism to economic development has attracted great attention due to its significant roles as a source of foreign exchange earnings, creation of employment opportunities and an important source of public revenues in many countries. In this paper, we aim to analyse the empirical relationship between economic growth and tourism by employing different econometric techniques. First, we employed the Bound test approach developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001, Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326) in order to investigate the co-integration relationship between economic growth and tourism. Second, we used the Granger causality analysis for the 1998–2011 period and found evidence of a long-run uni-directional causality running from tourism to economic growth, but not vice versa. Our findings show that the Turkish case supports the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH). Third, the autoregressive-distributed lag approach was employed in order to investigate the long-term and short-term static relationship between tourism and economic growth. The results show that tourism has a positive effect on gross domestic product and economic growth both in the long-term and short-term. Finally, the effect of tourism on economic growth was also investigated dynamically by employing the Kalman filter method. The findings of this method support the TLGH for Turkey.     

A context-specific perspective of equal employment opportunity in Islamic societies

The purpose of the paper is to offer a context-specific perspective of gender equality and its implications for equal employment opportunity in Islamic societies. The paper discusses various discourses on the Islamic perspective of gender and how they might impact female employment in the formal employment sector. The study highlights some major differences among Muslim countries with respect to gender ideology and the corresponding prospects for equal employment opportunity. Furthermore, the paper argues that any attempts to reform the socio-political institutions and labor policies in Islamic societies must be informed by their particular formal and informal institutional features.

Financial Statement Comparability and Idiosyncratic Return Volatility

This study examines the association between financial statement comparability and idiosyncratic return volatility (IRV). A greater degree of comparability lowers information acquisition costs, reduces the uncertainties associated with performance evaluation, and increases the overall quantity and quality of information available to corporate outsiders, which, in turn, helps investors to understand and evaluate the cash flow and performance of firms more accurately. Therefore, we hypothesize a negative association between financial statement comparability and IRV. Using a large US sample from 1981 to 2013, we show that financial statement comparability is associated with lower level of IRV significantly. We also find this association to be more pronounced in a poor information environment. This study contributes to the emerging research that stresses the benefits of financial statement comparability.     

Pricing of time-varying liquidity risk in Finnish stock market: new evidence

Using two recently developed illiquidity measures, we estimate a conditional version of liquidity-adjusted capital asset pricing model (LCAPM), which allows for a time-varying decomposition of the total illiquidity premium into a level component and three risk components. The total estimated annualized illiquidity premium for the Finnish equities during 1997–2015 is 1.13–1.90% depending on the illiquidity measure. Of the three systematic liquidity risk components, risk arising from hedging of wealth shocks is the most important followed by commonality in liquidity risk, whereas flight to liquidity risk is not significantly priced in the Finnish stock market. Our results show that the liquidity risk is time varying, therefore the models estimating the risk-return relationship should address the issue of conditionality.     

Policy impact assessment in developing countries using Social Accounting Matrices: The Kenya SAM 2014

This paper describes the structure and estimation of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Kenya for the year 2014. Among its specificities, this SAM includes a very high disaggregation of the agri‐food sector and accounts for the double role of households as producers and consumers. Accounting for these characteristics is crucial to provide robust socioeconomic analysis in the context of developing countries. Indeed, this type of database is valuable to perform ex‐ante evaluations of economic policies with various economic models and techniques. In this paper, we present an application with a linear multiplier analysis (backward linkages and value chain decomposition). The results show the capacity of the primary sector in Kenya to generate value added and employment, with this growth distributed more intensely in rural households whose main livelihood is semi‐subsistence agriculture.